Homestead mailing list

[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

<<<<".....phenomenon of a bubble, you must sell somewhere around the zenith.  
Or at 
least on the risings side of things higher than you paid for it.  If the gold 
investor's stragegy is to exploit the bubble, there's really not a lot
of leeway  in the timing to be successful."   >>>> 
 
I disagree,,,, there is time, but not in terms of years or making a decision 
- decision making time tends to need to be made within a few short 
weeks/months once the top is in.
 
For instance, take a look at  a recent chart of oil, and it's rapid collapse. 
 I don't believe oil was in a bubble proper since it only rose 300%, but the 
chart illustrates how fast price can fall, which I believe is specifically 
the point you are talking about.... there was not a lot of leeway in timing 
for oil in 2008..
 
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00252857636
 
Oil started its rapid rise Jan 07, and let's say you didn't buy until $67-70 
area.  Price rises and you have no idea where the top will be.  Even if you 
just use a simple cross of a 5x20 simple moving average cross after the top, 
you're out at the $125 area (about a 200% increase).  The collapse was 
spectacular in that it only took 6 months, but there was still time to get 
out.  For two reasons,,,,, masses think pull-backs in price are bargain buys 
on the way down, and shorts cover (natural buyers).  
 
Some 99% of the rest of the world has no idea that there are times when gold 
has no value.  Heck I didn't even think of that until you mentioned 
something.  So I just don't forsee any high or even medium low possibility of 
an overnight price collapse.  If that has happened before, please let me know 
- that is something I would like to know about.
 
Same thing in the recent real estate bubble.  You didn't have to sell at the 
2005 high in housing to cash out near zenith.  2006 was close enough even 
though past the zenith - the masses still weren't thinking in terms of 
bubble, didn't understand that a credit bubble caused it, etc.  
 
Same in all bubbles; they pop faster than they rise more or less, but price 
doesn't 100% collapse overnight.
 
So to address the question, there's time to get out - depending on where you 
start.  

The concept of never having to be in a position to liquidate holds true for 
every investment, not just gold.  It is the same for stocks, bonds, even real 
estate.  A lot of people buy real estate with a mortgage, and many don't 
think about finding themselves in a forced liquidation situation when prices 
are low.  Heck even now, some people are losing their homes because they 
can't afford the tax man and insurance any more.  
 
<<... the one characteristic of holding wealth in gold is this:  You have to 
be able and willing to hold it indefinately.>>>
 
That would come back to knowing WHY one wants to own gold.  And if that 
decision is made - to own - recognizing that price goes up and down, and 
knowing WHEN the time is right, and WHEN to sell.  Most things can even be 
sold at a loss (defeats the purpose of buying, buy still can be sold at a 
loss).  
 
Deciding to hold indefinitely, to me would imply either a belief that gold 
will go from $X (whatever the high is) to $zero practically overnight.... or 
a refusal to admitting an error in purchase price and refusing to sell at a 
small loss (which is NEVER someone's intentions when they buy anything, but 
it happens all the time) before it turns into a big loss.   (which could mean 
one might decide to pass it on to the next generation UNintentionally - 
intentionally is a different story).  If there is no intent to hold for the 
next generation, better darn well have sell rules - gain or loss.
 
 
We agree that not all forms of storing excess wealth are equal.   Each person 
must choose form himself which is best to tide one over during good times and 
bad, and whether to put all eggs in one basket, or several, whether to hedge 
against depression, hyperinflation, a total change in a national lifestyle, 
etc.  For someone who doesn't have much money, buying extra clothes 
(something needed for survival) in addition to seeds (and related farming 
items) might be one place to put savings.  For others who have a lot more 
excess wealth - they'll have to decide additional forms.  But they are not 
all equal.  Some serve one purpose, others serve other purposes.
 
I think WTSHTF, there are going to be several phases of it.... each with 
challenges, including as one of your other posts talked about - a lack of 
recognition on the part of the masses that times have changed.  Part of this 
is already happening.
 
Kirby writes:
"History demonstrates that fiat money systems have been tried countless times 
over the past two or three thousand years, and in EVERY case they collapse 
into a hyperinflation, followed by a deflationary depression. These 
depressions usually destabilize societies leading to chaos and war. Because 
fiat currencies have such a “perfectly futile historical record,” the only 
means by which Central Banks can delay this inevitable conclusion is through 
“control” of the perceived value of precious metal."
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/kirby/2008/1229.html
(there's some other stuff in the article)
 
For those who own land, real estate taxes & insurance (if purchased) will 
cost more in the hyperinflation phase.  Real estate tax alone, is one heck of 
a good reason to have a plan in place that will keep up with rising real 
estate tax.  It could be working at a job with a payroll that keeps with 
inflation -- or passive investments - ass-its as you called them. :-)  Or 
both.
 
The chaos and war part in today's world could get to the point of interuption 
of food & other supplies.  A self-sustaining homesteader wouldn't have to 
worry about this much.  But the former - rising real estate tax - should be a 
concern should a hyperinflation unfold.  In a prolonged depression, one could 
probably get real estate tax reduced if one could prove decreased value (good 
luck.... LOL).
 
 
Someone posted an article about a Russian guy predicting the US currency 
would collapse sometime in the next 2 years, and the US could fracture apart 
into five sections being taken over by other countries.  OK, let's put that 
for starters in the "skinny" end of probabilities.  But for discussion....... 
say it happened.  If you're in the section that goes to let's say Mexico - 
and the US dollar has collapsed, you have to trade your worthless dollars in 
for pesos somehow. Although how would be a different story.... the exchange 
rate I'd guess wouldn't be favorable.  But a piece of silver or gold might do 
better under that circumstance.... Might.  (Low probability scenario - the 
government didn't let the South seceed from the nation 150 years ago.... hard 
to imagine the gov't letting 5 other nations take us over...that would be 
something though !)
 
In today's world I'd put emphasis on survival skills and supplies first.  If 
I thought a hyperinflation was unfolding, I'd offset SOME loss of purchasing 
power with gold/silver/oil and other commodities. But with a specific sell 
strategy - otherwise there is no point to buying.
 
 
 
Hmmm, let's see, can one buy gold now to buy a survival lifestyle later?  It 
probably would be a lot better to have practiced beforehand, be prepared 
ahead of time since one can not predict what will go into short supply....  
And I suppose it depends on what is causing the need for survival lifestyle.  
  
 
I doubt someone with gold is going to be able to pry any farmland from an 
existing homesteader.  But most people are not homesteaders.  You never know 
why some people sell things that have real value (say productive land) at the 
oddest times.  You never know why/when someone wants to buy gold.  It isn't 
impossible.  My guess is it would just need to be done before the end of a 
hyperinflation stage - because gold price collapses in depressions (which for 
3000 years depressions have followed hyperinflation/currency collapses - so 
decent odds on that bet).  Some people might actually want to flee the 
country, and smuggle their gold out.  You never know when or why people will 
exchange XYZ for gold.  (Actually, that has already been happening, people 
leaving the country, taking gold with them.)
 
 
 
Ahh, I misunderstood, thought it was a 1933 double eagle.  Toooo bad...
Collectibles = spot + the collector value "vig".  I think gold coins are 
measured in troy ounces. 
 
 
 
 

--- On Tue, 12/30/08, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com> wrote:

 



>From erthnsky AT bellsouth.net  Wed Dec 31 02:14:43 2008
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Subject: Re: [Homestead] Shots
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I've thought about you so much today.  I am really glad you decided to
get the shots.  I know that we of the list have been pretty critical of
Western medicine of late, but in this case, I think you made the right
choice.  I'd be interested in hearing from anyone on the list who would
have chosen not to take the shots, and what alternative you would have
taken instead.

> There were some positive outcomes from this. First, the people we met at
> the state health department were very nice, as in the kind of folks
> you'd like to have over. They are organic gardeners and their staff vet
> does raw milk and organic cheeses on a ranch not far from us. They are
> very excited to hear about our Healthy Harvest group.

That's cool.


>
> Second, the health department's vet took the preventative rabies shots
> thirty years ago and has continued to titer out. That means my post
> rabies shots may last me as long. If you look at this cost amortized
> over thirty years it doesn't seem so bad. Knowing me, I will have
> contact with wild animal slobber again sometime. Next time I will only
> need to take a titer test.

Let's hope there won't be a next time, okay?

>
> OK, the details. The nurse walked in with a bouquet of syringes. First I
> had two very painful shots of the Human Rabies Immune Globulin into the
> top of the thumb until it began to look more like a cartoon thumb. This
> bled more than the fox bite.

??  The injections made your thumb bleed?  Did they give you anything
for the pain?  Why can't they numb the area first?


The rest was given in two shots in that
> arm.

I missed the narrative on exactly how you were bitten.  When you feel
better, can you give me a play by play?


Next, the Rabavert was given in six shots divided between my two
> shoulders. These did not feel too bad at the time but not so good now. I
> feel like I have a sunburn and have kayaked 16 miles, only I haven't. I
> left with two large wads of cotton taped to my shoulders looking like I
> had wings amputated.

Oh man..that hurts just thinking about it.
So that was 10 in all, right?




>
> I have to have all the Rabavert shots again on day 3, 7, 14, and 28. It
> looks like my bill from the state will be slightly over $1400 for the
> vaccines. I do not know what my doctor's office is charging me yet but
> it took up a lot of their time and supplies.

That is horrible...just about the time you are able to move again, they
hit you again....but, I guess you just gotta keep it all in
perspective..rabies is fatal...with the Rabavert, this too shall pass.

Bev
--
"The world is my country, all mankind are my
  brethren, and to do good is my religion."
  Thomas Paine (1737 - 1809)