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[Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

At 11/13/2006, you wrote:
> I have never doubted that energy users would increasingly have to
> make do without inexpensive oil. I do read about new discoveries and
> new sources, most notably under the ocean.

One of the points of the book is energy return on energy investment.  In 
the 1940s the typical return on a barrel of oil used to explore, drill, 
extract, process and deliver was over 100 barrels.  By the 70s it was 23 
barrels for existing fields and around 8 for new discoveries.  Compare the 
oil fields of Texas to the North Sea.  This ratio is only getting worse 
with what are called non traditional sources such as tar sands.  For some 
sources such as undersea methane hydrides it is closer to 5.

Heinberg quotes from Joseph Tainter's 1988 book "The Collapse of Complex 
Societies".  Tainter shows that as societies become more complex the 
required solutions to problems become more complex and expensive.  There 
comes a time of diminishing returns when the increased complexity is no 
longer worth it.  Romans may have opened the gates because the Visigoths 
may have appeared better than the Roman government.

>  I continue to believe that
> the primary issue is not supply, but price.

The primary issue is supply which in turn has a direct affect on price.  We 
will never run out of oil.  When the pumps can no longer pull oil to the 
surface, there will be about as much  left in the ground as we have pumped 
but that remainder will be too expensive to extract.  What good will it do 
when the oil return on investment is 1:1?  Are we ready for a time when 
nuclear power plants are set up to provide power to extract oil?

> Both sun and Earth's core
> have essentially unlimited heat.

Oil is nothing more than solar energy collected over millions of 
years.  The earth's core has heat but what will be the cost in finances and 
complexity to extract it.  At what point is it no longer worth the effort?

>  As prices become more painful, more
> attention will be paid to alternative forms of energy. We will all
> adjust according to our needs and our purchasing power.

We will adjust.  As pointed out by Jared Diamond, the elites will be the 
last to have heated houses but is that what we want?  Do we want 70% of our 
cropland to be turned over to energy production?  He points out some 
painful choices.

The first is do nothing, the Last man standing approach.  Lets continue to 
fight wars over energy and let the biggest check book continue to live a 
life of energy luxury until we hit the Malthius point where everyone goes 
without.

Next is to wait for a magic elixir.  Some magic combination of technology 
that will let up all live like we are using personal vehicles to run to the 
7-11 for a six pack.  There are none except for a lucky few, again those 
who can afford it.  Each option has cost and complexity issues.

His next is a power down scenario.  Starting now we must cut our energy 
usage.  Build smaller more energy efficient homes with lower embedded 
energy materials.  Stop pouring fuel into ever larger automobiles.  Stop 
importing energy intensive foods grown by an energy intensive industrial 
farming system.  This will do little more than buy us time to work out 
systems and come to grips with the end of oil.

His fourth is to build life boats.  During medieval times much of western 
knowledge was preserved in monasteries.  Avoiding the oppressiveness of 
religions he suggests that small enclaves of knowledge be kept for a post 
carbon world.  Knowledge of growing things, open pollinated seeds, tool use 
and manufacture, just the things we talk about on these lists but is a 
somewhat grander scale.

He points out rightly that the world's population is a problem.  The 
current level of 6.5 billion is totally unsustainable.  Some projections 
have us at closer to 9 billion in 50 years.  He says that a post carbon 
earth will have problems supporting 1 billion and that over the next 100 
years we need to be acting to reduce population.




Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From don.bowen AT earthlink.net  Mon Nov 13 14:27:23 2006
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At 11/13/2006, you wrote:

> I could not agree more, I have never really considered oil shortages a
> crises. Once prices rise enough, it will become economically wise to move 
> on to  a
> better source of energy, and we will.

What source?  All are more expensive that oil in terms of absolute cost and 
the amount of energy delivered against the amount of energy spent.  That 
complexity snake is rising up to bite our behind.



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From don.bowen AT earthlink.net  Mon Nov 13 14:32:18 2006
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At 11/13/2006, you wrote:
> Look at the abundance of methane hydrates on the continental
> shelves around the world; it's practically an untapped resource for
> natural gas.

And at what environmental cost?  Already many fisheries around the world 
have collapsed or are near.  Releasing methane is a prime cause of global 
warming.

> (I know this isn't petroleum, but who knows what lies
> deeper under the gas pocket-it's possible that petroleum has
> migrated/sunk deeper into the 'ultra deep' regions.

And how much will it cost to drill for and bring up oil from thousands of 
feet below the ocean surface.  There may be oil at the well head but who 
will be able to afford it/



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From erthnsky AT bellsouth.net  Mon Nov 13 15:51:57 2006
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Don Bowen wrote:
> At 11/13/2006, you wrote:
> > Look at the abundance of methane hydrates on the continental 
> > shelves around the world; it's practically an untapped resource for
> >  natural gas.
>
> And at what environmental cost?  Already many fisheries around the
> world have collapsed or are near.  Releasing methane is a prime cause
> of global warming.

We have a lot of things going on here, and I don't want to confuse
issues....As for the environmental cost, there's different implications
for drilling on land vs. drilling shallow water off the coast, vs.
drilling deep water, vs. drilling ultra deep.  And that's just the
drilling aspect.  Harvesting hydrates wouldn't require drilling in the
way that petroleum is drilled, it would be more like mining the rocks
off the bottom than drilling, and the environmental cost would be no
more than what we are presently doing. We dredge river bottoms for
navigation, and no one questions the environmental cost..how much
methane is released into the atmosphere from coal mining or other types
of mining?  If you think the US has a lot of mines, tell the Chinese
that their mines are affecting atmospheric temperature rise and see if
they care.  In some ways, we are becoming so concerned that we are
putting ourselves right out of competition. While we are busy over
analyzing the environmental aspect of things like the ultra deep oil
drilling, the Chinese have stepped in and started actually doing it, not
just researching it.  Does it make it right?  No, but the fact remains
that I believe the US is almost too cautious, too politically correct
when it comes to things in the public eye.  Of course, when it comes to
other things, covert programs, the government doesn't give a rat's ass
about the environment (take the dumping of waste at Area 51 or any
number of other places).
 Collapsing fisheries has less to do with hydrocarbon exploration in the
deep-water ocean and more to do with local economies, overfishing, and
littoral pollution, IMO.  Most commercial fishing is done in shallower
water, nearer the coast.  Granted, in the old days of oil exploration,
it did affect fishing, but now that exploration and drilling is in
deeper water, that's less of an issue.  I read not too long ago about an
entire fascinating deepwater ecosystem under some of those massive rigs.
Methane is indeed a cause of atmospheric temperature rise.  Cow farts,
permafrost melting from atmospheric temperature rise, and of course
natural methane seeps bubbling on the ocean floor are all culprits as
are the burning of fuels in our vehicles, etc. etc.  To just say global
warming is not specific enough.  You have ocean warming and atmospheric
warming and while inter-related, they are separate processes.  This is
what I meant when I said I hate discussing this stuff, because it all
gets glommed together.
As for utilizing the methane hydrates on the ocean floor, well, I just
don't see how that is going to affect fishing or increase 'global
warming', provided we use appropriate technology.  Actually, I would
think that by harvesting the hydrates, and using the methane locked in
the hydrates as fuel, that we would actually reduce the amount of
methane being released into the atmosphere because once that 'rock' is
on the surface, it is no longer bubbling methane on the ocean floor.  By
controlling the temperature and pressure of the hydrate, as you would do
in an environmentally responsible harvest technique, you can eliminate
the release of methane.  It is the warm water of ocean warming that is
actually speeding up and increasing the release of methane from the
hydrate.  Check this out, Don, they are talking about the various
concerns and methods for utilizing this untapped resource.
http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v35_2_02/methane.shtml


> > (I know this isn't petroleum, but who knows what lies deeper under
> > the gas pocket-it's possible that petroleum has migrated/sunk
> > deeper into the 'ultra deep' regions.
>
> And how much will it cost to drill for and bring up oil from
> thousands of feet below the ocean surface.  There may be oil at the
> well head but who will be able to afford it/

The oil companies will do it if they think it is profitable.  Did you
not read the link I provided about keeping the price of oil high to make
the venture financially worthwhile?

There is no longer any easy solution.  There is no longer a cheap
solution.  There could be, with advances in technology, but companies
put the money in their pockets and into study groups instead of into
developing the technology.  It's the same in the pharmaceutical industry
and countless other industries and institutions...money goes first into
the pocket, and by the time all the studies are done, there is nothing
leftover to actually implement the technology, nor is there motivation
to do so, since the money is flowing and consumerism abounds. Catch 22.
I'm pretty pessimistic about it all, sorry Marie, but James is right on
this one, until the people actually get a grip and change their
behaviors and attitude, things will stay the same, even though they
COULD be different.  It's the old adage, drive like a sport, pay like a
sport.  It applies to a lot of things.

Bev

--
BevanRon of EarthNSky Farm   NW Georgia USDA Zone 7
34.498N 85.076W    Bev is Earth, Ron is Sky