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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Four Degrees of Devastation
  • Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2011 22:13:03 -0600


As a reminder the underlying issue in this is the future of agriculture and
coping with possible changes in whatever affects it. It's true there's a lot
we don't know. But I don't take that as a signal to throw out science and
deny what we do know. One thing we already know is that industrial
agriculture cannot feed the world right now.

paul tradingpost@lobo.net

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/11/2011 at 9:44 PM Tradingpost wrote:

>http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9
>states:
> "Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7
>mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is
>significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand
>years."
>
>Not speculative. And I seriously doubt Al Gore is dictating policy to
>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data
>Center. Same goes for all the other links. I welcome differences of views
>but please research the subject and weigh the credibility of sources and
>who's paying them to say what. I do not support the "look out the window
>and see if the sea level is rising" approach to the science.
>
>And the U.S. Geological Survey at
>http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/factshts/fs91_97.pdf
> "The rate of global sealevel rise is expected to accelerate during the
>next century as atmospheric temperatures continue to increase."
>
>What's important in this IMHO is to use and study and challenge the
>science instead of just dissing it with ideological blinders. I mean, we
>still see some who demand we accept the sun goes around the earth because
>the Bible says so.
>
>paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>
>
>*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>
>On 6/10/2011 at 11:26 AM paul@oneseedling.com wrote:
>
>>The National Geographic link is mostly speculating what would happen
>>"if". There has been no rise of ocean 4-8in in the US.
>>
>>The second link is also speculating on effects of rising levels on
>>marshland in Louisana. The graph actually shows the swamp rose instead of
>>fell.
>>
>>The third link is also speculating on what "if" however it is more fact
>>based showing a very slight rise in sea levels. However archeological
>>evidence at least in the Mediterranean shows a fall in sea levels at
>>around 50 ft from Greek Classical era.
>>
>>The fourth link is also speculative heavy on the what if with some nice
>>temperature charts thrown in. Gotta remember we have only been recording
>>accurate temperatures for around 200 years.
>>
>>Sorry, the last two links didn't work on my computer.
>>
>>So I still say that as far as I can see the ocean rise thing is mostly
>>speculative. I looked at so old pictures of Florence and compared them to
>>modern pictures and it was a mixed bad, some higher some lower which leads
>>me to believe that those are foundation problems.
>>Indications are that places like Bangladesh are sinking but that is due to
>>subduction of their subcontinent. Some islands in the Indian Ocean and in
>>the Pacific have lost coastline but this appears to be related to natural
>>sinking of volcanic islands
>>
>>Climate change is good business, just as Al Gore.
>>
>>Paul the Skeptic
>>
>>On Jun 9, 2011, at 10:46 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> They can always pay some "expert" who isn't even a climate scientist to
>>lie like no tomorrow, and the moneybags come from the likes of Exxon-Mobil
>>and other big polluters who stand to lose money if climate science is
>>taken seriously. But these are credible websites:
>>>
>>>
>http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0420_040420_earthday.html
>>> http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/factshts/fs91_97.pdf
>>> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9
>>> http://www.nature.nps.gov/geology/coastal/gw_slr.cfm
>>>
>>http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/235402/global-warming/274850/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise
>>> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15774757
>>>
>>> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>>>
>>>
>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>
>>> On 6/9/2011 at 8:35 PM paul@oneseedling.com wrote:
>>>
>>>> I guess the only question is where is the sea rising. No evidence on
>>>> either coast of the US. Area around New Orleans is sinking but area
>>around
>>>> Corpus Christi the same.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Paul the Skeptic
>>>>
>>>> On Jun 9, 2011, at 4:53 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Qui bono. I'd question the source of any such "documentaries".
>>>>>
>>>>> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>>>>>
>>>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>>>
>>>>> On 6/9/2011 at 9:26 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> That is one of the things that worry me Paul. There should be a
>>>>>> measurable
>>>>>> and fast rise in sea level but I have seen whole documentaries
>>>>>> explaining/proving that exactly the opposite is happening. I wish I
>>>> were
>>>>>> certain myself but confusion rules.
>>>>>> john
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> OK with me, I'm just judging from the amount of sea ice melting.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 6/8/2011 at 10:14 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Just replying to the last paragraph Paul. There is a hell of a lot
>>of
>>>>>>>> confusion at the moment. It is not easy to see whether sea levels
>>>> rise or
>>>>>>>> fall when the tidal differences are huge in comparison. I have seen
>>>>>>>> scientific articles going in either direction and the last one from
>>>> only
>>>>>> a
>>>>>>>> few weeks ago measured sea levels with gps and satellites and found
>>a
>>>>>>>> drop.
>>>>>>>> Time will tell if we are still around.
>>>>>>>> john
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> to the question "why panic if we should move towards the same
>>levels
>>>> of
>>>>>>>>> green
>>>>>>>>> house gas as in the Carboniferous?"
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> it would destroy civilization and most species adapted to modern
>>>>>> climate
>>>>>>>>> including humans of course
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> sea water is rising slowly, and if the sun was hotter some
>>scientists
>>>>>>>>> somewhere would be telling us and others would be verifying it
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 6/7/2011 at 7:42 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> The models are based on human emissions alone, and do not
>>include
>>>>>>>>>>>> heat-amplifying feedbacks from melting ice or changes in
>carbon
>>>>>>>>>>>> sinks.
>>>>>>>>>>>> When those are factored in, it moves the timetable forward so
>>that
>>>>>>>>>>>> "reaching four degrees by 2060 is a plausible, worst-case
>>>> scenario"
>>>>>>>>>> with
>>>>>>>>>>>> the median being 2070. By 2100, 5.5 degrees is possible, he
>>said.
>>>>>>>>>>> If it only includes human emissions and doesn't consider melting
>>>>>>>>>>> hydrates, permafrost decay, or feedbacks, then it isn't even
>>close
>>>> to
>>>>>>>>>>> the worst case scenario.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Everyone is so afraid to speak the whole truth on this topic
>>>> because
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>> whole truth is worse than the "alarmists".
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Dan C.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I could not agree more Dan. Imo most people, even scientists,
>>might
>>>> not
>>>>>>>> be
>>>>>>>>>> able to take the whole truth. Our species is very good at
>>extremely
>>>>>> over
>>>>>>>>>> simplified dichotomies. Most are by now convinced climate change
>>is
>>>>>>>> taking
>>>>>>>>>> place. Ice is melting everywhere. But is that our fault? Or is
>the
>>>> sun
>>>>>>>>>> indeed putting out more enery?
>>>>>>>>>> Worst case scenario is if both are right at the same time. There
>>>> were
>>>>>>>>>> times
>>>>>>>>>> on earth that CO2 levels were higher than they are now and life
>>was
>>>>>>>>>> abundant. So why panic if we should move towards the same levels
>>of
>>>>>>>>>> green
>>>>>>>>>> house gas as in the Carboniferous?
>>>>>>>>>> If at the same time the sun puts out more energy we may very well
>>>> all
>>>>>>>>>> get
>>>>>>>>>> fried is why.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> So many factors are still uncertain, ice is melting and sea water
>>>>>> levels
>>>>>>>>>> should be rising. Instead we seem to have had a sea level drop of
>>>> 10 mm
>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>>>> just a few years according to some research and this scares me
>>>>>>>>>> seriously.
>>>>>>>>>> If that research is correct then where did all that water (many,
>>>> many
>>>>>>>>>> cubic
>>>>>>>>>> miles of water) go?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> It is almost a certainty that if both humans and the sun are
>>>>>> responsible
>>>>>>>>>> that we may loose all water on Earth eventually. Just maybe this
>>is
>>>>>> what
>>>>>>>>>> is
>>>>>>>>>> happening already. And maybe this is the reason that serious
>>people
>>>>>> have
>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>> luxury to still be discussing temperature rises in single digits.
>>>> Water
>>>>>>>>>> escaping the atmosphere would have a serious cooling effect for a
>>>>>> while.
>>>>>>>>>> Nothing new here, at the very moment the Turks attacking
>Byzantium
>>>> were
>>>>>>>>>> breaking down the gates of that city the theologians inside where
>>>>>>>>>> discussing
>>>>>>>>>> with vigour the question of how many angels could dance at the
>one
>>>> time
>>>>>>>> on
>>>>>>>>>> the point of a needle.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> In a real worst case scenario we may be getting temperature rises
>>>> of a
>>>>>>>> few
>>>>>>>>>> hundred degrees.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> John
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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