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  • From: paul@oneseedling.com
  • To: Healthy soil and sustainable growing <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Four Degrees of Devastation
  • Date: Fri, 10 Jun 2011 11:26:48 -0500

The National Geographic link is mostly speculating what would happen "if".
There has been no rise of ocean 4-8in in the US.

The second link is also speculating on effects of rising levels on marshland
in Louisana. The graph actually shows the swamp rose instead of fell.

The third link is also speculating on what "if" however it is more fact based
showing a very slight rise in sea levels. However archeological evidence at
least in the Mediterranean shows a fall in sea levels at around 50 ft from
Greek Classical era.

The fourth link is also speculative heavy on the what if with some nice
temperature charts thrown in. Gotta remember we have only been recording
accurate temperatures for around 200 years.

Sorry, the last two links didn't work on my computer.

So I still say that as far as I can see the ocean rise thing is mostly
speculative. I looked at so old pictures of Florence and compared them to
modern pictures and it was a mixed bad, some higher some lower which leads me
to believe that those are foundation problems.
Indications are that places like Bangladesh are sinking but that is due to
subduction of their subcontinent. Some islands in the Indian Ocean and in the
Pacific have lost coastline but this appears to be related to natural sinking
of volcanic islands

Climate change is good business, just as Al Gore.

Paul the Skeptic

On Jun 9, 2011, at 10:46 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:

>
> They can always pay some "expert" who isn't even a climate scientist to lie
> like no tomorrow, and the moneybags come from the likes of Exxon-Mobil and
> other big polluters who stand to lose money if climate science is taken
> seriously. But these are credible websites:
>
> http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0420_040420_earthday.html
> http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/factshts/fs91_97.pdf
> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9
> http://www.nature.nps.gov/geology/coastal/gw_slr.cfm
> http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/235402/global-warming/274850/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise
> http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15774757
>
> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>
>
> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>
> On 6/9/2011 at 8:35 PM paul@oneseedling.com wrote:
>
>> I guess the only question is where is the sea rising. No evidence on
>> either coast of the US. Area around New Orleans is sinking but area around
>> Corpus Christi the same.
>>
>>
>> Paul the Skeptic
>>
>> On Jun 9, 2011, at 4:53 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> Qui bono. I'd question the source of any such "documentaries".
>>>
>>> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>>>
>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>
>>> On 6/9/2011 at 9:26 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>
>>>> That is one of the things that worry me Paul. There should be a
>>>> measurable
>>>> and fast rise in sea level but I have seen whole documentaries
>>>> explaining/proving that exactly the opposite is happening. I wish I
>> were
>>>> certain myself but confusion rules.
>>>> john
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> OK with me, I'm just judging from the amount of sea ice melting.
>>>>>
>>>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>>>
>>>>> On 6/8/2011 at 10:14 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Just replying to the last paragraph Paul. There is a hell of a lot of
>>>>>> confusion at the moment. It is not easy to see whether sea levels
>> rise or
>>>>>> fall when the tidal differences are huge in comparison. I have seen
>>>>>> scientific articles going in either direction and the last one from
>> only
>>>> a
>>>>>> few weeks ago measured sea levels with gps and satellites and found a
>>>>>> drop.
>>>>>> Time will tell if we are still around.
>>>>>> john
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> to the question "why panic if we should move towards the same levels
>> of
>>>>>>> green
>>>>>>> house gas as in the Carboniferous?"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> it would destroy civilization and most species adapted to modern
>>>> climate
>>>>>>> including humans of course
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> sea water is rising slowly, and if the sun was hotter some scientists
>>>>>>> somewhere would be telling us and others would be verifying it
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> paul tradingpost@lobo.net
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 6/7/2011 at 7:42 PM John D'hondt wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The models are based on human emissions alone, and do not include
>>>>>>>>>> heat-amplifying feedbacks from melting ice or changes in carbon
>>>>>>>>>> sinks.
>>>>>>>>>> When those are factored in, it moves the timetable forward so that
>>>>>>>>>> "reaching four degrees by 2060 is a plausible, worst-case
>> scenario"
>>>>>>>> with
>>>>>>>>>> the median being 2070. By 2100, 5.5 degrees is possible, he said.
>>>>>>>>> If it only includes human emissions and doesn't consider melting
>>>>>>>>> hydrates, permafrost decay, or feedbacks, then it isn't even close
>> to
>>>>>>>>> the worst case scenario.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Everyone is so afraid to speak the whole truth on this topic
>> because
>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>> whole truth is worse than the "alarmists".
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Dan C.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I could not agree more Dan. Imo most people, even scientists, might
>> not
>>>>>> be
>>>>>>>> able to take the whole truth. Our species is very good at extremely
>>>> over
>>>>>>>> simplified dichotomies. Most are by now convinced climate change is
>>>>>> taking
>>>>>>>> place. Ice is melting everywhere. But is that our fault? Or is the
>> sun
>>>>>>>> indeed putting out more enery?
>>>>>>>> Worst case scenario is if both are right at the same time. There
>> were
>>>>>>>> times
>>>>>>>> on earth that CO2 levels were higher than they are now and life was
>>>>>>>> abundant. So why panic if we should move towards the same levels of
>>>>>>>> green
>>>>>>>> house gas as in the Carboniferous?
>>>>>>>> If at the same time the sun puts out more energy we may very well
>> all
>>>>>>>> get
>>>>>>>> fried is why.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> So many factors are still uncertain, ice is melting and sea water
>>>> levels
>>>>>>>> should be rising. Instead we seem to have had a sea level drop of
>> 10 mm
>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>> just a few years according to some research and this scares me
>>>>>>>> seriously.
>>>>>>>> If that research is correct then where did all that water (many,
>> many
>>>>>>>> cubic
>>>>>>>> miles of water) go?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> It is almost a certainty that if both humans and the sun are
>>>> responsible
>>>>>>>> that we may loose all water on Earth eventually. Just maybe this is
>>>> what
>>>>>>>> is
>>>>>>>> happening already. And maybe this is the reason that serious people
>>>> have
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>> luxury to still be discussing temperature rises in single digits.
>> Water
>>>>>>>> escaping the atmosphere would have a serious cooling effect for a
>>>> while.
>>>>>>>> Nothing new here, at the very moment the Turks attacking Byzantium
>> were
>>>>>>>> breaking down the gates of that city the theologians inside where
>>>>>>>> discussing
>>>>>>>> with vigour the question of how many angels could dance at the one
>> time
>>>>>> on
>>>>>>>> the point of a needle.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> In a real worst case scenario we may be getting temperature rises
>> of a
>>>>>> few
>>>>>>>> hundred degrees.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> John
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
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>>>>>
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