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  • From: "John D'hondt" <dhondt@eircom.net>
  • To: "Healthy soil and sustainable growing" <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Four Degrees of Devastation
  • Date: Sun, 12 Jun 2011 23:20:59 +0100

Paul, we are basically in complete agreement about all this. Sea water levels should rise with global warming. I bought my property 25 years ago with an eye to that effect :) (the lowest part of our land is at around 400 feet elevation). But ice is melting everywhere and I can't see any difference in sea level yet. Up to a hundred years ago "The Anker" in Bantry was around the high high water line. It is still above water today.

One thing to be careful with is stating that we should not throw out science. I agree with that but realise full well that many scientists are now involved in intellectual prostitution. At least the ones that want to keep their jobs. I agree that industrial agriculture can not feed the world right now but ask an ag scientist and he or she will 9 times out of ten tell you this is because there is not enough gmo yet.
john

As a reminder the underlying issue in this is the future of agriculture and coping with possible changes in whatever affects it. It's true there's a lot we don't know. But I don't take that as a signal to throw out science and deny what we do know. One thing we already know is that industrial agriculture cannot feed the world right now.

paul tradingpost@lobo.net

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/11/2011 at 9:44 PM Tradingpost wrote:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9
states:
"Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7
mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is
significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand
years."

Not speculative. And I seriously doubt Al Gore is dictating policy to
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data
Center. Same goes for all the other links. I welcome differences of views
but please research the subject and weigh the credibility of sources and
who's paying them to say what. I do not support the "look out the window
and see if the sea level is rising" approach to the science.

And the U.S. Geological Survey at
http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/factshts/fs91_97.pdf
"The rate of global sealevel rise is expected to accelerate during the
next century as atmospheric temperatures continue to increase."

What's important in this IMHO is to use and study and challenge the
science instead of just dissing it with ideological blinders. I mean, we
still see some who demand we accept the sun goes around the earth because
the Bible says so.

paul tradingpost@lobo.net


*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/10/2011 at 11:26 AM paul@oneseedling.com wrote:

The National Geographic link is mostly speculating what would happen
"if". There has been no rise of ocean 4-8in in the US.

The second link is also speculating on effects of rising levels on
marshland in Louisana. The graph actually shows the swamp rose instead of
fell.

The third link is also speculating on what "if" however it is more fact
based showing a very slight rise in sea levels. However archeological
evidence at least in the Mediterranean shows a fall in sea levels at
around 50 ft from Greek Classical era.

The fourth link is also speculative heavy on the what if with some nice
temperature charts thrown in. Gotta remember we have only been recording
accurate temperatures for around 200 years.

Sorry, the last two links didn't work on my computer.

So I still say that as far as I can see the ocean rise thing is mostly
speculative. I looked at so old pictures of Florence and compared them to
modern pictures and it was a mixed bad, some higher some lower which leads
me to believe that those are foundation problems.
Indications are that places like Bangladesh are sinking but that is due to
subduction of their subcontinent. Some islands in the Indian Ocean and in
the Pacific have lost coastline but this appears to be related to natural
sinking of volcanic islands

Climate change is good business, just as Al Gore.

Paul the Skeptic

On Jun 9, 2011, at 10:46 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:


They can always pay some "expert" who isn't even a climate scientist to
lie like no tomorrow, and the moneybags come from the likes of Exxon-Mobil
and other big polluters who stand to lose money if climate science is
taken seriously. But these are credible websites:


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/04/0420_040420_earthday.html
http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/factshts/fs91_97.pdf
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q9
http://www.nature.nps.gov/geology/coastal/gw_slr.cfm

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/235402/global-warming/274850/Ice-melt-and-sea-level-rise
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15774757

paul tradingpost@lobo.net


*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/9/2011 at 8:35 PM paul@oneseedling.com wrote:

I guess the only question is where is the sea rising. No evidence on
either coast of the US. Area around New Orleans is sinking but area
around
Corpus Christi the same.


Paul the Skeptic

On Jun 9, 2011, at 4:53 PM, "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net> wrote:


Qui bono. I'd question the source of any such "documentaries".

paul tradingpost@lobo.net

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/9/2011 at 9:26 PM John D'hondt wrote:

That is one of the things that worry me Paul. There should be a
measurable
and fast rise in sea level but I have seen whole documentaries
explaining/proving that exactly the opposite is happening. I wish I
were
certain myself but confusion rules.
john


OK with me, I'm just judging from the amount of sea ice melting.

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/8/2011 at 10:14 PM John D'hondt wrote:

Just replying to the last paragraph Paul. There is a hell of a lot
of
confusion at the moment. It is not easy to see whether sea levels
rise or
fall when the tidal differences are huge in comparison. I have seen
scientific articles going in either direction and the last one from
only
a
few weeks ago measured sea levels with gps and satellites and found
a
drop.
Time will tell if we are still around.
john

to the question "why panic if we should move towards the same
levels
of
green
house gas as in the Carboniferous?"

it would destroy civilization and most species adapted to modern
climate
including humans of course

sea water is rising slowly, and if the sun was hotter some
scientists
somewhere would be telling us and others would be verifying it

paul tradingpost@lobo.net


*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 6/7/2011 at 7:42 PM John D'hondt wrote:


The models are based on human emissions alone, and do not
include
heat-amplifying feedbacks from melting ice or changes in
carbon
sinks.
When those are factored in, it moves the timetable forward so
that
"reaching four degrees by 2060 is a plausible, worst-case
scenario"
with
the median being 2070. By 2100, 5.5 degrees is possible, he
said.
If it only includes human emissions and doesn't consider melting
hydrates, permafrost decay, or feedbacks, then it isn't even
close
to
the worst case scenario.

Everyone is so afraid to speak the whole truth on this topic
because
the
whole truth is worse than the "alarmists".

Dan C.

I could not agree more Dan. Imo most people, even scientists,
might
not
be
able to take the whole truth. Our species is very good at
extremely
over
simplified dichotomies. Most are by now convinced climate change
is
taking
place. Ice is melting everywhere. But is that our fault? Or is
the
sun
indeed putting out more enery?
Worst case scenario is if both are right at the same time. There
were
times
on earth that CO2 levels were higher than they are now and life
was
abundant. So why panic if we should move towards the same levels
of
green
house gas as in the Carboniferous?
If at the same time the sun puts out more energy we may very well
all
get
fried is why.

So many factors are still uncertain, ice is melting and sea water
levels
should be rising. Instead we seem to have had a sea level drop of
10 mm
in
just a few years according to some research and this scares me
seriously.
If that research is correct then where did all that water (many,
many
cubic
miles of water) go?

It is almost a certainty that if both humans and the sun are
responsible
that we may loose all water on Earth eventually. Just maybe this
is
what
is
happening already. And maybe this is the reason that serious
people
have
the
luxury to still be discussing temperature rises in single digits.
Water
escaping the atmosphere would have a serious cooling effect for a
while.
Nothing new here, at the very moment the Turks attacking
Byzantium
were
breaking down the gates of that city the theologians inside where
discussing
with vigour the question of how many angels could dance at the
one
time
on
the point of a needle.

In a real worst case scenario we may be getting temperature rises
of a
few
hundred degrees.

John



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