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[Lisa Perry <lkvp AT floydva.net>]

This article (the top headline in today's Roanoke Times) about made me 
sick to my stomach.
_____________

http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf (264kb)
Published online October 29, 2004. 

Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample 
survey  
Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert 
Burnham

/Summary /
Background In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the 
UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period 
of 14·6 months before the invasion with the 17·8 months after it.

/Methods/ A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during 
September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed 
about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In 
those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of 
violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death 
associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality 
in the 17·8 months after the invasion with the 14·6-month period 
preceding it.

/Findings/ The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 
1·6-4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion 
period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in 
the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death 
is 1·5-fold (1·1-2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 
more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion 
outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is 
included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial 
infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders 
whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. 
Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were 
mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly 
killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death 
from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% 
CI 8·1-419) than in the period before the war.

/Interpretation/ Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 
100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of 
Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes 
from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown 
that collection of public-health information is possible even during 
periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and 
should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.

See Comment
http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf (264kb)