permaculture

[Toby Hemenway <toby@patternliteracy.com>]

On Aug 17, 2012, at 7:13 AM, Marjory wrote:

> Toby,
> 
> The US is NOT food self-reliant.  It take IMPORTERD oil to grow all the 
> food the US produces.  Currency collapse means no way to buy feul, means 
> the combines quit rolling, and the shelves go bare.

We trade for that imported oil; there's linkage there. The people who sell it 
to us are dependent on the food, and everything else, we trade them for it 
(the dollars are just markers--it's goods that trade). Trade is a stabilizing 
force, not destabilizing. The "oil independence" position is no more rational 
than "I have to grow all my food by myself." And, almost half of our imported 
oil and LNG (for fertilizer) comes from Mexico and Canada, our most stable 
trading partners, with whom we have immense political leverage, even in a 
currency collapse. Canada and Mexico need to trade oil even more badly than 
we need to get it.

Look at the numbers: In 2011 we imported 45% of our oil. Our food--growing, 
processing, shipping, cooking--uses about 17% of our oil consumption. We 
produce 4200 calories per day per person in the US, delivered. If we lost 
half our oil (really unlikely!), we could cut food production in half and 
still deliver 2000 calories a day. Diverting that amount of oil use--8% if 
needed--to food will be a critical priority; gov'ts know that hungry people 
topple regimes. Yes, it could happen, but food is really the simplest need to 
take care of after shelter. I can see short term shocks, and they would be 
followed by martial law to deliver food and payments to corporate farmers to 
produce; the plans are in place (we're not the only ones who know this!). And 
rapid conversion to local food production has been demonstrated countless 
times: Cuba, Russia, Argentina, Victory Gardens, etc, etc. Food is too simple 
to fix, compared to finance, health care, insurance, law enforcement, 
education, and the rest that is far more ready to collapse. They are far more 
complex systems; they'll go first. I'm much more worried that my fire 
department will fail than I am of running out of food.

Obviously we need to be putting a lot of effort into food security. And funny 
thing is, we are already. That's why everyone, from the USDA and Homeland 
Security on down, talks about it so much. I'm grateful to all the food 
activists who have put the issue on the radar screen. I think it's taking 
care of itself at just about the right pace. To me, food looks like a 
problem, which is solvable and being solved, unlike a predicament, like Peak 
Oil, which is not.

The obvious problems--and food is very, very obvious--and are rarely the ones 
that get you. 

Toby
http://patternliteracy.com