permaculture

[Stephen Sherman <spsherm@msn.com>]

I'm getting to this thread a bit late, but wanted to add a few thoughts 
which were not yet touched on:

While this is an interesting discussion, I think it is important to 
recognize that it really is several inter-related discussions. In modern 
Western civilization one cannot really discuss food "sufficiency" 
without also examining the food distribution systems, and also the 
economic/monetary systems which "power" the other legs (including the 
food production leg). A failure in any one can cause a food crisis.

I fully agree with Toby, that the US (and NA) produce sufficient food in 
normal weather years to feed its inhabitants (ignoring for now the 
issues of how healthy or sustainable that food production is). Whether 
or not that food can get to the consumers and those consumers will be 
able to afford to purchase that food are other worthy questions.  Recent 
history (the 1930's) indicates that economic disruptions can reek havoc 
with these systems (recall the b&w pictures of food kitchens/lines and 
farmers dumping milk and other crops because they could not afford to 
produce them at the going price from that time).

We have gotten better at managing the appearance of poverty/hunger. No 
more large scale food kitchens in big cities with long lines outside. 
Instead we have 15% of the population receiving food stamps (or whatever 
the new name for them is). Up sharply since the financial crisis of 
'08.  It certainly presents a better picture on the surface (no long 
food lines on the evening news every night), and it preserves the 
dignity of the recipients. But it may also have other unintended 
consequences, such as adding unsustainable support to  food distribution 
and economic systems which need to change. The first step in changing 
something is recognizing that there is a problem; unfortunately the 
display of problems is managed too well to allow effect and timely 
feedback loops to develop.

I'd agree too that a financial crisis is potentially the largest risk on 
the near term horizon (that is if your horizon extends out a few years). 
There is a joke which is going around the bond trading pits: "What's the 
difference between the US and Spain/Greece? Answer: About 2-3 years."  
It is amazing to me how many times the "Euro crisis" can be solved, only 
to fall apart again a few months later (sometimes in even less time); 
yet everyone seems to believe the next fix will really do it.

 Is there any credit based monetary/financial system really sound 
today?  The answer I believe is varying degrees of no, depending upon 
which country you are speaking of. As the financial/monetary crisis 
moves from place to place, I expect to see winners and losers. For a 
while some currencies may benefit as "wealth" rushes to them if they are 
perceived as a safe haven. But in reality, all the financial systems are 
suffering from the same "disease;" it just is more advanced in some 
countries.

As to the inflation/deflation question, I use this analogy to explain 
it. Preparing for inflation or deflation is like watching a very drunk 
person stumbling down the sidewalk and placing a bet on whether he falls 
to the right or left. You know he will eventually fall, and that is all 
you really need to plan for. Why try to predict the future to the point 
knowing which direction he finally goes down. Same thing with 
financial/currency systems. It is pretty clear they are stumbling around 
preparing for a fall, that may be all you need to know. Preparations 
which remove your life and wealth from the financial system may be the 
most robust change you can make, regardless of which way the teetering 
financial system finally falls.

Remember too, inflation/deflation are very relative concepts in modern 
finance. For example, in the Argentine crisis in the 90's, when their 
currency collapsed, the locals experienced massive inflation and lock 
downs on their financial assets in the system. Yet at the same time, 
people outside the country saw deflation and were able to pick up 
Argentine assets at bargain basement prices. The Argentines who were 
savvy enough to transfer their wealth to other currencies prior to the 
crisis, could act like foreigners and scoop up bargains.  The extent of 
how or if this replays in other countries in the future depends upon if 
there are players "outside" that currency system who can take advantage 
of the local crisis.

All in all, a very interesting but broad topic.  My motto is consider 
the worst, but prepare for the most likely...