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  • From: "Wendy" <crazygardens AT verizon.net>
  • To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
  • Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2008 16:35:28 -0400

Ok, now, James. I'm going to give you a friendly little kick in the a@@. BUMPH There, that was to kick you out of the box. You see yourself what is going to happen just by looking at the fish counter. The infrastructure that allows us to import like mad is collapsing. Soon we will not be able to easily import from China or anywhere else. Tomorrow there will not be any imported fish from China. The cases will be empty. But in a few days, there will be a limited amount of expensive trout, catfish, salmon, haddock etc all from US ranchers and fisheries in the case. A while later there will be more and the prices will begin to fall as more and more US investors begin putting their money in real tangible companies instead of companies which trade in intangible commodities. Where before US tilapia and other ranched fish entrepreneurs could not compete with the influx from China, now they can. The same will go for other sectors of our manufacturing industry. What is collapsing is the machine that sucks the cash from our manufacturing sector. A big part of the reason for the collapse is that our manufacturing sector has been sucked dry and it was now sucking on the real estate market which was due to make a natural down turn. If this collapse of the funny-money trade maintains it's momentum, this will be a very, very good thing. Have you ever read Atlas Shrugged?

I think is time to dig out my old aquaponics notes. What has Tom and Paula been up lately?

Wendy


>What started in 1929 took four years to complete. We are 'not', yet, >even
close. For us to reach what was completed in 1933, the dow would have to
fall to around 1000, as a measurement; and, real unemployment to rise above 25%


In 1929 stocks dropped twelve percent the first day and then thirteen percent
the next, the 'crash' was just 25% below peak. There were several rallies
before the slow, inexorable slide that ended in '33. We are already more than
30% below the peak, took more than two days, but that's immaterial.

Another factor is that in the 30's the US had plenty of its own oil. To a
large extent we were able to eventually 'oil' our way out of the economic
troubles. Now we don't even have half our own consumption. In the 30's hundreds
of millions of people went back to throw their lot in with the family farms
they had so recently vacated for the cities. Now there are no such farms.

Picking up a truck part the other day and this having been the lousiest
fishing season on record, I stopped by a mart to see if there were any fish I could
afford to buy. I had one criterion - it could not be from China. From a 16
foot row of frozen cases, there was not ONE seafood product that was not from
China. Look on the backs of canned and frozen goods in the stores, almost
none of it any more is a product of the USA.

I keep hearing blather about things are different this time because of Fed
involvement and early intervention. Hell yes things are different this time, we
have NO backup, NO plan B, NO effective safety net.

Our grimness is exceeded only by our grimness. No, wait, that's too
negative. Let me put on the Pollyanna handpuppet: "Yes, boys and girls, everything
will be just fine. The US government (full faith and integrity, don't you
know) would never let houses devalue nationwide by 30%, let the stock market slip
below 10,000, or let the money evaporate out of your 401K ..... no ... wait
..." </HTML>
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