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[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

I wasn't saying that it will not be as bad, 'just saying not 'yet'.  It will 
do no good to forcast --  if you do believe that the market will lose 89% of 
its value  and close to one third of all those who desire employment being 
without -- for we will no longer have communications such as the internet to 
use to proclaim  your correct prognostication, if it does get that bad.  

Personally, I no longer have a clue.  I'm guessing that we will be at war 
before December (starting with Iran).  It will be much easier for a 
liberal,like a President Obama, to re-instate the draft in the next couple of 
years.  People will also believe him when he cracks down on civil liberties 
to maintain civic order.

This, if it unfolds in a bad way, will be horrid for everyone, whether or not 
you provide your own food ...........bobford


--- On Mon, 10/6/08, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com> wrote:

> From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 10:23 AM
> > >What started in 1929 took four years to complete. 
> We are 'not', yet, even 
> > close.  For us to reach what was completed in 1933,
> the dow would have to 
> > fall to around 1000, as a measurement;  and, real
> unemployment to rise above 25%
> > 
> 
> In 1929 stocks dropped twelve percent the first day and
> then thirteen percent 
> the next, the 'crash' was just 25% below peak.  
> There were several rallies 
> before the slow, inexorable slide that ended in '33. 
> We are already more than 
> 30% below the peak, took more than two days, but that's
> immaterial.
> 
> Another factor is that in the 30's the US had plenty of
> its own oil.   To a 
> large extent we were able to eventually 'oil' our
> way out of the economic 
> troubles.  Now we don't even have half our own
> consumption.  In the 30's hundreds 
> of millions of people went back to throw their lot in with
> the family farms 
> they had so recently vacated for the cities.  Now there are
> no such farms.
> 
> Picking up a truck part the other day and this having been
> the lousiest 
> fishing season on record, I stopped by a mart to see if
> there were any fish I could 
> afford to buy.  I had one criterion - it could not be from
> China.  From a 16 
> foot row of frozen cases, there was not ONE seafood product
> that was not from 
> China.  Look on the backs of canned and frozen goods in the
> stores, almost 
> none of it any more is a product of the USA.
> 
> I keep hearing blather about things are different this time
> because of Fed 
> involvement and early intervention.  Hell yes things are
> different this time, we 
> have NO backup, NO plan B, NO effective safety net.
> 
> Our grimness is exceeded only by our grimness.   No, wait,
> that's too 
> negative.  Let me put on the Pollyanna handpuppet: 
> "Yes, boys and girls, everything 
> will be just fine.  The US government (full faith and
> integrity, don't you 
> know) would never let houses devalue nationwide by 30%, let
> the stock market slip 
> below 10,000, or let the money evaporate out of your 401K
> ..... no ... wait 
> ..."      </HTML>
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