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  • From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
  • Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2008 09:36:09 -0700 (PDT)

I wasn't saying that it will not be as bad, 'just saying not 'yet'. It will
do no good to forcast -- if you do believe that the market will lose 89% of
its value and close to one third of all those who desire employment being
without -- for we will no longer have communications such as the internet to
use to proclaim your correct prognostication, if it does get that bad.

Personally, I no longer have a clue. I'm guessing that we will be at war
before December (starting with Iran). It will be much easier for a
liberal,like a President Obama, to re-instate the draft in the next couple of
years. People will also believe him when he cracks down on civil liberties
to maintain civic order.

This, if it unfolds in a bad way, will be horrid for everyone, whether or not
you provide your own food ...........bobford


--- On Mon, 10/6/08, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com> wrote:

> From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 10:23 AM
> > >What started in 1929 took four years to complete.
> We are 'not', yet, even
> > close. For us to reach what was completed in 1933,
> the dow would have to
> > fall to around 1000, as a measurement; and, real
> unemployment to rise above 25%
> >
>
> In 1929 stocks dropped twelve percent the first day and
> then thirteen percent
> the next, the 'crash' was just 25% below peak.
> There were several rallies
> before the slow, inexorable slide that ended in '33.
> We are already more than
> 30% below the peak, took more than two days, but that's
> immaterial.
>
> Another factor is that in the 30's the US had plenty of
> its own oil. To a
> large extent we were able to eventually 'oil' our
> way out of the economic
> troubles. Now we don't even have half our own
> consumption. In the 30's hundreds
> of millions of people went back to throw their lot in with
> the family farms
> they had so recently vacated for the cities. Now there are
> no such farms.
>
> Picking up a truck part the other day and this having been
> the lousiest
> fishing season on record, I stopped by a mart to see if
> there were any fish I could
> afford to buy. I had one criterion - it could not be from
> China. From a 16
> foot row of frozen cases, there was not ONE seafood product
> that was not from
> China. Look on the backs of canned and frozen goods in the
> stores, almost
> none of it any more is a product of the USA.
>
> I keep hearing blather about things are different this time
> because of Fed
> involvement and early intervention. Hell yes things are
> different this time, we
> have NO backup, NO plan B, NO effective safety net.
>
> Our grimness is exceeded only by our grimness. No, wait,
> that's too
> negative. Let me put on the Pollyanna handpuppet:
> "Yes, boys and girls, everything
> will be just fine. The US government (full faith and
> integrity, don't you
> know) would never let houses devalue nationwide by 30%, let
> the stock market slip
> below 10,000, or let the money evaporate out of your 401K
> ..... no ... wait
> ..." </HTML>
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