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  • From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
  • Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2008 12:23:27 EDT


> >What started in 1929 took four years to complete. We are 'not', yet, even
> close. For us to reach what was completed in 1933, the dow would have to
> fall to around 1000, as a measurement; and, real unemployment to rise
> above 25%
>

In 1929 stocks dropped twelve percent the first day and then thirteen percent
the next, the 'crash' was just 25% below peak. There were several rallies
before the slow, inexorable slide that ended in '33. We are already more
than
30% below the peak, took more than two days, but that's immaterial.

Another factor is that in the 30's the US had plenty of its own oil. To a
large extent we were able to eventually 'oil' our way out of the economic
troubles. Now we don't even have half our own consumption. In the 30's
hundreds
of millions of people went back to throw their lot in with the family farms
they had so recently vacated for the cities. Now there are no such farms.

Picking up a truck part the other day and this having been the lousiest
fishing season on record, I stopped by a mart to see if there were any fish I
could
afford to buy. I had one criterion - it could not be from China. From a 16
foot row of frozen cases, there was not ONE seafood product that was not from
China. Look on the backs of canned and frozen goods in the stores, almost
none of it any more is a product of the USA.

I keep hearing blather about things are different this time because of Fed
involvement and early intervention. Hell yes things are different this time,
we
have NO backup, NO plan B, NO effective safety net.

Our grimness is exceeded only by our grimness. No, wait, that's too
negative. Let me put on the Pollyanna handpuppet: "Yes, boys and girls,
everything
will be just fine. The US government (full faith and integrity, don't you
know) would never let houses devalue nationwide by 30%, let the stock market
slip
below 10,000, or let the money evaporate out of your 401K ..... no ... wait
..." </HTML>




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