Homestead mailing list

[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

What started in 1929 took four years to complete.  We are 'not', yet, even 
close.  For us to reach what was completed in 1933, the dow would have to 
fall to around 1000, as a measurement;  and, real unemployment to rise above 
25%......bobford

  


--- On Mon, 10/6/08, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com> wrote:

> From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] Short-term versus long-term
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 7:34 AM
> >> Today, real estate and stock market investments
> smell like hog manure.  
> > Long-term, they still make sense for most people. If
> for no other  
> > reason, they tend to keep up with inflation.
> 
> The stock market peaked in 1929 then crashed.  So
> here's the question, don't 
> peek (don't peek the peak).  How long did it take for
> the stock market to 
> recover just the point it had been in 1929 just before it
> crashed?
> 
> 
> 
> It reached 391 again in 1957.   It took 28 years.  
> That's not to say people 
> didn't make money on stocks during those 28 years.  But
> someone holding stocks 
> in 1929 in a bid to thwart inflation had a 28 year wait
> just to have the same 
> effect as if they had stuffed the money in a mattress.
> 
> How many on this can wait 28 years for their money just to
> break even?
> 
> The real danger, though, is this:  some stocks went
> completely belly up, 
> evaporated.   It's rather mild stuff compared to what
> is going on right now but 
> check the rental stores or such for flick Startup.com.   It
> shows the insides of 
> a startup company that had $50 million on paper but a few
> weeks later 
> evaporated completely into nothing.  If you have
> investments in such things (like 
> today's wind farms and such) and it doesn't pan
> out, you lose everything.  
> 
> Real estate bids fair to be the same sort of thing.  The
> next big debacle to 
> come on the public radar is commercial real estate.  Where
> ever you are, look 
> around at the new, never been occupied, strip malls and
> office buildings.  
> Never been occupied and never will be occupied.  Same is
> true of may of the 
> houses built over the past five years ... never will be
> occupied.  Besides the 
> ground they sit on, they are a dead loss.
> 
> 
> 
> > 
> > >So don't be blindsided by those who emphasize
> the obvious negatives.  
> > Plan long-term.
> 
> I'm not sure what 'emphasize' or
> 'negatives' precisely mean here, but I'd 
> have to ask how all that Pollyanna blather, not dwelling on
> the negative, worked 
> out with real estate.  Now THAT's blindsiding!
> 
> 
> 
> > 
> > >I don't see that much has changed for those of
> us with a homesteader  
> > mentality. Long-term planning includes getting a piece
> of good and  
> > secure land with low taxes and acquiring skills and
> tools, learning to  
> > be happy with the less-expensive things in life.
> > 
> 
> Now this is the crux of the matter and quite right.  Things
> on feasible, 
> functioning homesteads haven't changed much.  Get clear
> title to land, 
> *sustainable* tools, and embrace your
> subsistence-full-ness.   </HTML>
> _______________________________________________
> Homestead list and subscription:
> http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/homestead
> Change your homestead list member options:
> http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/options/homestead/bobford79%40yahoo.com
> View the archives at:
> https://lists.ibiblio.org/sympa/arc/homestead