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[Clansgian AT wmconnect.com]

> Biofuels have some promise. I don't know about switchgrass, whatever
> that is, but Brazil seems to be doing okay with sugar cane. Any
> thoughts on their secret, James? 

I do, and alas, they aren't very encouraging.

To put it into perspective, the rate of private motor vehicle ownership in 
Brazil is about 1/25th that of the US.   The disparity is stark.  It goes 
something like this:  If we used motorfuel at the same per capita rate it is 
used in 
Brazil, we would immediately become a major oil exporting nation because our 
own dwindling domestic production would be far greater than our consumption.  
On the other hand, if Brazil used motor fuel at the same per capita rate we 
use it, their entire "independent" supply (petroleum and ethanol) for a year 
would be consumed in four weeks.

There are two things about Brazil in this regard.  One is that public 
transportation is said now of days to be very good and very reliable.  An odd 
thing 
about this is that most of the busses and bus systems are privately owned in 
this country that is far more socialist leaning than we are.  The per 
passenger 
mileage in that country is very high.

The second thing is that if you've ever been there or anywhere near there, 
you notice that everyone doesn't flit about in an impatient and manic hurry 
as 
we are used to.  If it takes a while to get there, fine.

But even more important that this is that the idea that Brazil distilled its 
way to energy independence with sugar cane is largely a myth.  And the more's 
the pity.  Beginning in the late 70's there was a great push by the Brazil's  
Petrobras oil ministry (or company, however that works there) to step up oil 
exploration and drilling.  The result is that now the total amount of ethanol 
used in Brazil amounts to only 8% of the energy in all the petroleum they use 
(for all purposes, not just motor fuel).  Because of the popularity of public 
transportation, Brazil uses four times the amount of diesel than gasoline.   

In short Brazil didn't distill its way to energy independence, it drilled its 
way there.

Oh, for sure, we should emulate Brazil.  But that has little to do with where 
our fuel comes from and everything to do with how and how much we use.   
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