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  • From: Jody Troupe <jodyt2@mac.com>
  • To: permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] NASA study, Fed, algae threads
  • Date: Sat, 12 May 2007 15:51:22 -0400

Hello all-

This isn't exactly permaculture-specific, but for anyone that enjoys entertaining ideas of possible future
global trends... it struck me that this NASA thread, as well as the 'Fed' & 'algae' threads were all hitting
on the topic of looking ahead - - where is the world headed in terms of food availability, fuels, population,
technology, air quality, education... ?

I just returned from the Blue Ridge Mountains in Virginia where I attended a week-long Gateway training
session at the Monroe Institute. One of the presenters one evening was Joe McMoneagle, an x-military
guy that was employed for his exceptional remote viewing skills.

Joe has written 3 books, one of which I just finished reading in which Joe dedicates about 140 pages
to what he forsees in the next decade, century, and up to the year 3000, utilizing remote viewing techniques.
(Some of this is dated, or rather, verifiable, since it was written in '98.). He said he received a lot of insight
about future happenings while doing much of his work and he chose to assemble the concepts in a book.
He has a solid history of having this viewing ability - - not 100%, but enough so that he was actually
employed for this purpose for 17 years (he now has his own business and is hired regularly to find missing
persons, among other things).

I thought of permaculture as a solution repeatedly while reading through many of his forcasts. Ideas are born
from entertaining thoughts of future possibilities (like those being forcast now for global warming), and then that
leads to solutions. Sometimes a nudge from waaaay outside current thought is helpful to develop future concepts -
and for those of you with far more intelligence than me, there may be some gems of future-thinking in there.

For anyone who didn't know (like me), the military began pursuing remote viewing in the 70's because they
had learned that Russia was already investigating this concept, and the US wanted to discern enemy ability
to 'see' their secrets. Joe was involved with the program from '78, until it was discontinued in '95 - not for lack
of interest, but because the remote viewers would occasionally 'see' what the top tier of our government was
doing, and they were stepping on too many toes...)

Very interesting reading for anyone who enjoys that kind of thing:

The Ultimate Time Machine - A Remote Viewer's Perception of Time, and Predictions for the New Millenium
Joseph McMoneagle


Jody Troupe



On May 11, 2007, at 10:40 PM, Lawrence F. London, Jr. wrote:


<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070511/ap_on_sc/hot_future; _ylt=Ao5JvmlmPRxXu_ZqZo7yi8sPLBIF>
AP NASA study: Eastern U.S. to get hotter
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Fri May 11, 5:11 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Future eastern United States summers look much hotter than originally predicted with daily highs about 10
degrees warmer than in recent years by the mid-2080s, a new
NASA study says.

Previous and widely used global warming computer estimates predict too many rainy days, the study says. Because drier
weather is hotter, they underestimate how warm it will be east of the Mississippi River, said atmospheric scientists
Barry Lynn and Leonard Druyan of Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"Unless we take some strong action to curtail carbon dioxide emissions, it's going to get a lot hotter," said Lynn, now
a scientist at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "It's going to be a lot more dangerous for people who are not in the best
of health."

The study got mixed reviews from other climate scientists, in part because the eastern United States has recently been
wetter and cooler than forecast.

Instead of daily summer highs in the 1990s that averaged in the low to mid 80s Fahrenheit, the eastern United States is
in for daily summer highs regularly in the low to mid 90s, the study found. The study only looked at the eastern United
States because that was the focus of the funding by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Lynn said.

And that's just the eastern United States as a whole. For individual cities, the future looks even hotter.

In the 2080s, the average summer high will probably be 102 degrees in Jacksonville, 100 degrees in Memphis, 96 degrees
in Atlanta, and 91 degrees in Chicago and Washington, according to the study published in the peer-reviewed journal Climate.

But every now and then a summer will be drier than normal and that means even hotter days, Lynn said. So when Lynn's
computer models spit out simulated results for July 2085 the forecasted temperatures sizzled past uncomfortable into
painful. The study showed a map where the average high in the southeast neared 115 and pushed 100 in the northeast. Even
Canada flirted with the low to mid 90s.

Many politicians and climate skeptics have criticized computer models as erring on the side of predicting temperatures
that are too hot and outcomes that are too apocalyptic with global warming. But Druyan said the problem is most computer
models, especially when compared to their predictions of past observations, underestimate how bad global warming is.
That's because they see too many rainy days, which tends to cool temperatures off, he said.

There is an established link between rainy and cooler weather and hot and drier weather, said Kevin Trenberth, climate
analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Rainy days means more clouds blocking the sun and more
solar heat used to evaporate water, Druyan said.

"I'm sorry for the bad news," Druyan said. "It gets worse everywhere."

Trenberth said the link between dryness and heat works, but he is a little troubled by the computer modeling done by
Lynn and Druyan and points out that recently the eastern United States has been wetter and cooler than expected.

A top U.S. climate modeler, Jerry Mahlman, criticized the study as not matching models up correctly and "just sort of
whistling in the dark a little bit."

But Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria, editor of the journal Climate but not of this study, praised the paper,
saying "it makes perfect sense."

He said it shows yet another "positive feedback" in global warming, where one aspect of climate change makes something
else worse and it works like a loop.

"The more we start to understand of the science, the more positive feedbacks we start to find," Weaver said.

Weaver said looking at the map of a hotter eastern United States he can think of one thing: "I like living in Canada."

___

On the Net:

The NASA paper: http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2007/Lynn_etal.html

Full Coverage: Climate Change

Off the Wires
* Africa, climate, investment on Germany's agenda for G8 summit AFP, Fri May 11, 11:56 AM ET
* Rains aid Europe's crops amid climate swings Reuters, Fri May 11, 9:47 AM ET

Feature Articles
* Climate change around the world at BBC, Apr 06
* Climate change fruitful for fungi at BBC, Apr 05

News Stories
* 31 states target global warming at The Los Angeles Times (reg. req'd), May 09
* Climate Panel Reaches Consensus on the Need to Reduce Harmful Emissions at The New York Times (reg. req'd), May 04

Opinion & Editorials
* Blueprint for greenhouse gases The Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo! News, May 09
* Fuzzy Climate Math at The Washington Post (reg. req'd), Apr 12

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