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  • From: Marimike6@cs.com
  • To: permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
  • Date: Sun, 21 May 2006 07:45:14 EDT

Mitch says:

"Oil shortages and fear of shortages will cause significant transportation
cost increases. At some point, some transportation services, including for
food,
will cut back or go out of business. I believe that, within our current
financial system, transportation and distribution will be affected sooner and
more
dramatically than agricultural production. Thus our supermarket system will
face dramatic change. It seems likely that farmers will, for a while, have
food
that can't get to market. Without an outlet for their products, and without
income, the farmers will have to cut back on production. Then what? Will our
financial system provide some interim methods?"

The supermarket shelves are stacked mostly with the products of corporately
owned factory farms, not products of small family farms. And even when the
primary producer is a small farmer, that person sells to a corporation. So I
think
we need not worry about a time when producers produce less due to market
economics. These people are not accustomed to taking a loss or going out of
business. The only thing that will happen is that food prices will increase.

There is opportunity in this for small farmers. As it becomes less feasible
to ship strawberries from California or grapes from Chile up to
Massachusetts,
small local farmers will be courted by the major distributors. It has been my
observation here in NC that there is much pressure on the chains to stock
local produce, both from the farmers and from the customers. But there has
been
strong resistance because it's just too much trouble for them. That is likely
to
change in an environment of expensive imports relative to locally grown
goods.

In the extreme, if people return to eating the major portion of their diets
from sources within a hundred miles of their homes, northerners should
anticipate a return to a winter diet of beets, pickles, cabbage, turnips,
carrots and
potatos. No kiwis.

M. Elvin




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