Skip to Content.
Sympa Menu

permaculture - Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point

permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org

Subject: permaculture

List archive

Chronological Thread  
  • From: "Forest Garden" <forestgarden@gvtc.com>
  • To: "E. E. Mitchamore Jr" <emitch@att.net>, "permaculture" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
  • Date: Sat, 20 May 2006 16:07:06 -0500

Hi Mitch,

I think the problem is a bit more complex than simply there will be food,
but it can't get to markets.. Agricultural production is affected in tandem
with transportation. Our current agriculture requires vast amounts of fuel
to grow the food. There are already numerous reports of farmers going bust
right now becuase of the high cost of fuel and fertilizers. To quote one
Texas farmer (from the Valley area) who was only half-joking "I make just as
much money doing nothing, so why should I plant?".

One scenario that fits the situation you are talking about comes from the
close call we had last fall. 70% of the diesel used in the US is refined in
the Houston / Texas City area. If Rita had hit that area, there would have
been little fuel for the big harvesting combines, nor fuel for transport or
processing. That would have set off a food crisis the US has never seen
before. Rick Perry, our Governor, said this "America dogded a bullet when
Rita went east". He said 'America' - not just Texas, the State of which he
is the Governor. I don't want to be labelled as a fear monger, but this is
a real situation that could possibly happen, and there are quite a few other
scenarios with similar results.

One day at a time, huh?

Marjory




----- Original Message -----
From: "E. E. Mitchamore Jr" <emitch@att.net>
To: "permaculture" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 2:21 PM
Subject: Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point


> I have enjoyed this topic and learned a lot from it, but one of my pet
perspectives was not discussed, and remains on my mind. Please comment on
the following:
>
> Oil shortages and fear of shortages will cause significant transportation
cost increases. At some point, some transportation services, including for
food, will cut back or go out of business. I believe that, within our
current financial system, transportation and distribution will be affected
sooner and more dramatically than agricultural production. Thus our
supermarket system will face dramatic change. It seems likely that farmers
will, for a while, have food that can't get to market. Without an outlet
for their products, and without income, the farmers will have to cut back on
production. Then what? Will our financial system provide some interim
methods?
>
> I mention this scenario because it seems very probable to me, and
something that we will have to deal with BEFORE the doomsday scenario of no
oil/no food.
>
> What say ye?
>
>
> E. E. "Mitch" Mitchamore
> www.hillcountrynatives.biz
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Forest Garden
> To: permaculture
> Sent: Friday, May 19, 2006 10:31 AM
> Subject: Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
>
>
> Hi Jerome,
>
> I am keenly aware the conclusions are not optimistic as I live here and
am
> committed to my community. You stated
>
> > .. I am wondering how real (the conclusions written about) are, as it
> seems to me that they are
> > not really taking into account the adaptability of humans and the
> > power of community. If we look at the Cuba example, when peak oil
> > (due to the loss of Soviet oil) suddenly fell upon the island in
> > 1990, people not only survived, but thrived
>
> First of all, yes, there is an incredable amount of ingenuity in humans,
but
> the facts of the basic resources available still remain. We chose the
> bio-intensive method for our basic analysis of what food could be grown
> because it is one of the highest efficiency methods for sustainable food
> producing known. Perhaps you could get some more gain out of another
method
> or some really interesing ways to grow food, but you absoluely have to
have
> some area, oranic matter, experience, seeds, and water - in addition to
a
> lot of creativity, hard work, and community connectedness. Each of the
> million or so people needs to eat about 2000 calories a day. The
analysis I
> presented shows the facts of what resources are here in our area. And
yes,
> it is sobering.
>
> The second response I have is towards your comments about the sucesses
in
> Cuba. Yes, the Cuban story is quite impressive, and often brought up in
> permaculture circles as an example. But it is not very relevant to the
> situation in the United States. When the Soviet Union collapsed it
cutoff
> oil, fertilizer, and other petroleum products to not only Cuba, but also
to
> North Korea. The example of what happened in North Korea is perhaps
much
> more relevant to the Untied States than Cuba. By Castro's efforts, Cuba
had
> for decades in advance been converting land into owner cooperative
> agriculutral farms. Cuba's basic story was going form conventional
> agriculture to organic ag. North Korea was much more like a developed
> industiral country with large scale agriculture and highly dependant
cities.
> It is estimated that over 3 million people died in North Korea as the
food
> systems dependant on fossil feuls collapsed.
>
> For a more detailed discussion on the two examples see the article
"Drawing
> Lessons From Experience; The Agricultural Crisis in Cuba and North Korea
> Parts I and II" located at
>
> http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/111703_korea_cuba_1.html
>
> By its nature, this topic is a very difficult to discuss. And I would
> sincerely appreciate comments after you've read the article.
>
> At a personal level, my family has been working very, very hard for the
past
> three years to establish a small family farm to simply feed ourselves.
The
> undertaking is massive with the amount of fossil feuls we have used so
far,
> and we are still a few years away from serious production. As another
> example, Lawrence recently explained what he did to get four acres into
high
> production. The amount of fuel he used, and the energy he put into it
> personally, was substantial. In Central Texas, these kinds of inputs
and
> efforts cannot be replicated enough times over to support the current
> population as we simply don't have the resources. And if we try to go
much
> further out to find resources, we run into the needs of even bigger
cities
> like San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas.
>
> It not a shortage of human ingenuity and community - its much more basic
> than that.
>
> Marjory
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jerome Rigot" <rigot.3@osu.edu>
> To: "permaculture" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
> Sent: Friday, May 19, 2006 8:57 AM
> Subject: Re: [permaculture] Global Food Supply Near the Breaking Point
>
>
> > Hi Marjory,
> >
> > Your conclusions are not very optimistic.
> >
> (check
> > http://www.communitysolution.org/ for additional info and for the
video).
> >
> > Havana is a large city, probably over 1 million people, and according
> > to your conclusions, it should not have been able to sustain the
> > people inhabiting the city. But they were sustained, and one way
> > people were able to survive was by developing community gardens,
> > square-foot gardens, container gardens, roofs gardens, etc... all
> > over the city, creating a local urban agriculture and local urban
economy.
> >
> > So, would this be impossible to happen in Texas?
> >
> > Jerome
> >
> > At 09:08 AM 5/19/2006, you wrote:
> > >A small group here in Central Texas did some analysis on what would
it
> take
> > >to grow enough food locally for the existing 1 million population
that is
> in
> > >Travis County. You know the 'lets all start a victory garden'
scenario?
> > >The Jeavons bio-intneisve method of food production was assumed along
> with a
> > >vegetarian diet. From the bio-intensive method, 40 beds per person
are
> > >needed which amount to 4,000 sq.ft. We assumed each household could
> garden
> > >800 sq.ft. at home (actually a bit optimistic and would require
cutting
> down
> > >a lot of trees, but close to real), and all available park land,
other
> > >public lands, greenbelts, vacant land, and exisitng ag land was
converted
> to
> > >bio-intensive gardens (not potlitically possible but the resources
are
> > >there). Well, there wasn't enough land, so then it was scaled it
down to
> > >each person only having the 12 bio-intensive growing beds (in
> bio-intensive
> > >12 beds are for actively growing and the remining 28 are for compost
and
> > >fertility crops). The assumption being that the compost crops could
come
> > >from somewhere else - that is not really very realixstic, but worth
> looking
> > >at. We still had only about half of the acreage we would need.
> > >
> > >Then we looked at the other big requirements - compost, experience,
> water,
> > >and seeds. In Austin, we actually compost the biosolids from public
> waste
> > >and make what is known as dillo-dirt. We have several other large
> > >composting companies in the area which produce large quantities of
> compost.
> > >The 'soils' in this area are typically rock, caliche, and clay - so
> compost
> > >is essential. Adding together all of the commercial compost
production,
> and
> > >some assumptions about exisitng home composters, we have less than 1%
of
> the
> > >minimum required for the most resource consrving method of food
> production
> > >known.
> > >
> > >Central Texas is the meeting place of 5 very different bio-regions
and
> our
> > >weather patterns reflect that diversity and are extremely
challenging.
> I've
> > >spoken with many of the local farmers who produce for market and the
> > >consensus is that it takes at least 10 years to be able to
consistantly
> > >bring to market - or to consistantly be able to provide for yourself.
> (From
> > >my limitied 3 years of working with to grow my own food I will
testify to
> > >every minute of the ten years being necessary.) So there is the
problem
> of
> > >a long apprenticship and a question of having enough experienced
people
> to
> > >teach.
> > >
> > >Although we get approximately 34" of annual rainfall, it comes at
> irregular
> > >times. The experience of those who are working towards complete
off-grid
> > >living have found that at least 35,000 gallons of storage are needed
for
> a
> > >family of four (for thier drinking, hygene, and food production
needs).
> A
> > >six month drought is common here. Although people in the city may be
> able
> > >to rely on the public system for thier needs, this does demonstrate
the
> high
> > >dependancy on that public system functioning properly for food
> production.
> > >
> > >And finally seeds. The conclusion we reached was that if the descent
was
> > >slow enough, then seed production could keep up with demand. But a
> sudden
> > >increase in demand could wipe out available seeds in a very short
time.
> > >
> > >We don't have any hard statistics on the locally grown food in our
area,
> but
> > >from surveys of farmers markets, the consensus of what we know is it
is
> much
> > >less than 0.1% of what is needed. Overall, it will not be possible
to
> > >sustain the 1+ million people here. It would take massive amount of
> > >cooperative work and education to provide a spartan, survival diet
for a
> > >redcuced population. And, these efforts need to have been started
years
> > >ago.
> > >
> > >I believe this situation is very similar to most of the US and many
of
> the
> > >'developed' countires of the world. An unpleasant combination of too
> many
> > >people and too few resources, which even the immense creativity of
> > >permaculture and other methods will not be able to offset.
> > >
> > >Marjory
> > _______________________________________________
> > permaculture mailing list
> > permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
> > http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/permaculture
> >
>
> _______________________________________________
> permaculture mailing list
> permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
> http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/permaculture
> _______________________________________________
> permaculture mailing list
> permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
> http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/permaculture
>





Archive powered by MHonArc 2.6.24.

Top of Page