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livingontheland - Re: [Livingontheland] Four Degrees of Devastation

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Chronological Thread  
  • From: "John D'hondt" <dhondt@eircom.net>
  • To: "Healthy soil and sustainable growing" <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Four Degrees of Devastation
  • Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2011 19:42:13 +0100





The models are based on human emissions alone, and do not include heat-amplifying feedbacks from melting ice or changes in carbon sinks. When those are factored in, it moves the timetable forward so that "reaching four degrees by 2060 is a plausible, worst-case scenario" with the median being 2070. By 2100, 5.5 degrees is possible, he said.
If it only includes human emissions and doesn't consider melting
hydrates, permafrost decay, or feedbacks, then it isn't even close to
the worst case scenario.

Everyone is so afraid to speak the whole truth on this topic because the
whole truth is worse than the "alarmists".

Dan C.

I could not agree more Dan. Imo most people, even scientists, might not be able to take the whole truth. Our species is very good at extremely over simplified dichotomies. Most are by now convinced climate change is taking place. Ice is melting everywhere. But is that our fault? Or is the sun indeed putting out more enery?
Worst case scenario is if both are right at the same time. There were times on earth that CO2 levels were higher than they are now and life was abundant. So why panic if we should move towards the same levels of green house gas as in the Carboniferous?
If at the same time the sun puts out more energy we may very well all get fried is why.

So many factors are still uncertain, ice is melting and sea water levels should be rising. Instead we seem to have had a sea level drop of 10 mm in just a few years according to some research and this scares me seriously.
If that research is correct then where did all that water (many, many cubic miles of water) go?

It is almost a certainty that if both humans and the sun are responsible that we may loose all water on Earth eventually. Just maybe this is what is happening already. And maybe this is the reason that serious people have the luxury to still be discussing temperature rises in single digits. Water escaping the atmosphere would have a serious cooling effect for a while.
Nothing new here, at the very moment the Turks attacking Byzantium were breaking down the gates of that city the theologians inside where discussing with vigour the question of how many angels could dance at the one time on the point of a needle.

In a real worst case scenario we may be getting temperature rises of a few hundred degrees.

John



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