Homestead mailing list

[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

DHS is already gearing up for domestic violence.  They have been since last 
April, and have renewed there efforts since last Sunday's passing of HC bill,
according to a HS website.
 
 
Here's some numbers to think about:
 
SOURCE:  ST.LOUIS FEDERAL RESERVE
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/107

From 1980 thru now, the population has increased 130% (from ~ 210M to ~300M)

From 1980 to date, the Federal Reserve has increased the monetary base 
1,100%.  At no time during this period did they reduce (recall) the monetary 
base significantly.  Most of the 1,100% increase has occured since late 2008 
(from ~$800B to $2,200B).

The increase in money supply is totally out of whack with the increase in 
population.


If you look at the Federal Gov't Receipts, vs Federal Gov't Expenditures, vs 
Federal Govt' Savings (no clue why they call it savings - there aren't any, 
there are only deficits...)

from 1970 to the most recent data, Q3 2009, there have only been 2 years were 
there were not budget deficits.  Even during those 2 years, the only reason 
there wasn't a deficit was from capital gains tax being collected from the 
last 2 years of the 2000 stock market bubble.  The budget went immediately 
back into huge deficits in 2000 within a couple of months of the top of the 
market.  

The budget deficits are currently ~1.4Trillion.

IF the government had any savings (which it doesn't), and IF it start to pay 
off that deficit at the rate of $1,000 per second.... the deficit would be 
paid off in ~44 years.

BUT, then there is the unfunded off-balance sheet liability of a mere 
$108.9Trillion (probably 109T tomorrow or next week).  It would take 3,424 
years to pay off that at the rate of $1,000 per second, or 171 generations 
(20 years per generation).   (101 generations since Christ was born)..... so 
we've obligated a whole lot of future generations.  Of course that assumes 
that the Feds would actually start saving some money to pay down the debt.  
But they are not, they are expanding the expenditures.

The reason we are seriously fucked, has nothing to do with the Chinese, or 
financial deregulation.  It has to do with US citizens who want government to 
provide for them, and the politicians who want power, make promises to them.  

As of today, Social Security is now taking in less money than it pays out (a 
number of years ahead of time).  The politicians have already stolen the 
money from the lockbox, and left an IOU.  There are no savings - they WILL 
print money out of thin air starting this month to bribe the SS recipients 
into not revolting,

The politicians and the Fed's bail-out of the banks and the other too big too 
fails IS responsible for only the last 2 years additional contribution to the 
previously unsustainable promises from Uncle Fed to everyone with their hands 
out.


79% of the people now believe we are nearing economic collapse (including 74% 
of the Dems surveyed).  I happen to agree - 3-5 year lag period from F/Y 
ending 2009.  History shows 140% deficit spending is the last straw, we hit 
142% F/Y/E 2009, with no sign of that changing, or anyone in gov't willing to 
even slow the spending spree.  I was talking to a Dem Delegate just 2 weeks 
ago - and he agrees on all economic points in this post - with one 
exception.... he blames only the republicans and specifically Bush, instead 
of ALL politicians of both parties.\

Prior to Nixon taking us off the last vestige of a gold standard, (again, 
look up this information in the link above) the US Govt's budget went back 
and forth from budgets deficits, to actually have leftovers.  He did this, in 
part, to start paying for the VietNam War.  To blame only the last 
administration is very narrow minded.  EVERY administration since 1913 has 
lead us to this point of collapse.  The only president who attempted to 
balance the budget was Clinton, however, spending under Clinton expanded at a 
faster rate than any president before him.  The only reason he has a couple 
of years of balanced budgets was the stock market bubble - it was a smoke 
screen covering up a massive government expanision.  

Reagan came into office after a horrible economic point, and since there was 
no war to ramp up the economy, came up with "star wars" to spur the economy.  
He was so loved,,,, but the number reveal the truth that government spending 
and deficits increased more and more.  

Bush II's, who came into office in 2001, spending on the terrorist war beats 
the prior spending spree record of Clinton.  Up until 2006, he almost 
achieved going from massive massive budget deficits related to the 2000 stock 
market crash under Clinton, and then the 9/11 attacks and subsequent wars,,, 
somehow he almost managed to get the deficit back to break-even.  But, that 
was all a smoke screen, just like Clinton's.  Clinton had the stock market 
bubble to hide his spending spree, and Bush II had the real-estate bubble to 
mask his spending spree.

Democrats and Republicans alike have ruined this country with their deficit 
spending.  


Obama is following Alinsky's book.  Next will be immigration, and they will 
use any opposition to this to call those that oppose "racists".  It won't 
matter what the reasons for opposition are.  He wants additional voters in 
his column.  Amnesty and more hand-outs guarantees him votes.

What is really interesting, is if you look at the 3 reports from the Fed, US 
Govt Receipts, Expenditures and Savings.... lay them over each other to form 
one chart if you can... you will see that even with the bailouts that 
Bush&Obama agreed together on after Obama was elected, but before he was 
sworn in, the angle of the spending trajectory from rought 1997 to 2009 is at 
the same angle - even with the bailouts.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/107
FGEXPND, FGRCPTS, and FGDEF, will give you roughtly 1947 to Q3 2009.
(and if you are handy with Excel, you can click off those 3, download the 
data into an excel worksheet and make yourself some graphs so you can see 
what I'm talking about above).

The only thing that has changed is this time, the current real-estate market 
bubble did much more damage to the banks than the 1970s real estate bubble 
(which resulted in the S&L crisis).  Tax receipts have plummeted, even more 
so than after the 2000 market crash.  

US Govt obligations exceed the entire world's GDP, not by a little, but by a 
lot.  Treasury Secty' Paulson last year, in the financial report stated the 
government's spending is unsustainable, and has all but clearly stated in 
that report collapse is near.

What is different now?  Most of the outstanding US Treasurie Notes come due 
over the next couple of years,and SS is now unable to sustain itself.  The 
government does not have any savings to pay either (see the FGDEF chart).  
"Savings" are at a minus 1.4Trillion (deficit).  Simultaneoulsy, tax receipts 
are still plunging (high unemployment, continued personal and business 
bankruptcies, continued banks collapsing, etc)   The government will print 
the money out of thin air.  I.E. they will inflate - BIG TIME.  


In the end, those who have their seeds, and have a clue, and who aren't close 
to the civil unrest areas, will have it better than others.   Crime is 
already increasing, armed holdups, theft of food, etc.


The president has people around him who back in the 60s planned to overthrow 
the gov't,,, so he probably will be smug and cocky with the collapse.  After 
all divide & conquer & collapse is progressive (NOT!)

I will end this rant with this quote:

"Wilhelm Roepke's 1948 book, The Moral Foundations of Civil Society, in which 
he writes about those nineteenth century thinkers who anticipated the crisis 
of the twentieth century. According to Roepke, "It appears that in all great 
crises of world history most people utterly deceive themselves as to where 
they stand, just as if Providence had drawn a veil over the impending 
disaster." Though a society inwardly crumbles, an "optimistic self deception" 
prevails -- attended by "that astounding superficiality of diagnosis with 
which so many of us have judged the state of the world" in the past. How 
slowly we grasp the meaning of facts. How tenaciously we struggle against a 
"disagreeable awakening." How unready we are to admit that we have built our 
society upon an avalanche."  
http://financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2010/0319.html

And a huge avalanche it is, the largest ever built in the history of the 
world.


"Though a society inwardly crumbles, an "optimistic self deception" prevails 
-- attended by "that astounding superficiality of diagnosis with which so 
many of us have judged the state of the world" in the past."  ~J.R. Nyquist.

 




 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 


Marie McHarry wrote:
>  In a normal economy -- the kind we used to have before all the
>  financial institutions were deregulated and China ate our lunch -- we
>  ought to be recovering about now. But we have hit the pit of
>  financial deregulation. In a word, we are seriously fucked. There is
>  no heart left for bailing out the so-called too-big-to-fail
>  institutions. When it's all over we'll be left with the real economy,
>  which has a competitive edge in aeronautics, chemicals, and raw
>  materials. If you've saved your seeds and learned how to grow them,
>  you might be okay.
>
>  In the last 18 months of the previous administration, the total value
>  of US wealth decreased by 20 percent. Unless we return to reasonable
>  trade policies, rebuild our manufacturing sector, and deal with
>  Chinese manipulation of currency, we won't be recovering any time
>  soon.
>
>  Marie
Careful there, Marie, in that last paragraph, you are starting to sound 
like a Republican!  ;)

I live in a part of the country that is very much politically 
conservative.  Even groups that you might think would be liberal are 
conservative.  People here are disgusted, but more than that, they are 
scared.  Everyone I talk to is very anti-government, turning against 
Democrats AND Republicans.  Things are rough enough in these parts, with 
unemployment in my area pushing 14% or higher, and with this latest 
blow-the health care bill-most folks who had hope, lost it.  The economy 
is toast. I agree with Marie that we are seriously screwed.  It doesn't 
help that the President challenges those who intend to take the bill to 
court by saying things like "Go For It" and "Be my guest".  For all the 
*class* this guy is supposed to have, he isn't very presidential in that 
regard.  He is so cocky...that just doesn't play well here.  I recall 
that Gene? used to say "The revolution is Barack Obama" or something 
like that.  That may be truer than he intended, but not in the same 
way.  I worry about what might happen on April 15th.  People who used to 
think the Tea Party protesters were kooks are now planning to protest, 
after all, they aren't working...unemployment, here or overseas, often 
results in unrest.  Oh and Marie, I think I disagree with you on the 
chemicals thing.  Most of our 'chemical' industry is petroleum based and 
reliant on other economies.  Lots of stuff comes from China, too, like 
waxes and resins and polymer feedstocks.  I'm not so sure about that 
'edge'-it is pretty much a slippery slope.

I just THOUGHT that a lot of folks planted gardens last year...even more 
will try it this year.  Every where I look, I see folks tilling and 
plowing.  Technically, we are a week or so away from our last frost 
date, but the 15 day forecast shows really warm temps. The pears and 
forsythias and daffodils are in full bloom, and my peaches are there, 
but the plum and the rest of the trees are still waiting. (zone 7)

Anyway, everyone is really, really worried.  I'm lucky that my industry 
is still solid, but I am low on seniority and I am under no illusion 
about job security.  The best I can do is to balance paying off bills 
with doing things like replacing the windows and doors on the house.  
The final blow to the economy will probably be a large natural 
disaster.  I believe this might be the year for the Big One(8+) to 
strike the greater LA area-making my prediction(no guts no glory 
here<g>) for mid May, say between the 12th and the 17th, 14th or 15th, 
somewhere in there. Yup, my money is on a big earthquake in 
CallyFourNia, followed by regional economic collapse and social 
meltdown.  I wonder if the President will be so smug and cocky when the 
riots start.



-- 
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will 
not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius 
will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the 
world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone 
are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve 
the problems of the human race"

~ Calvin Coolidge


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________________________________

From: EarthNSky <erthnsky AT gmail.com>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Sent: Thu, March 25, 2010 10:32:27 PM
Subject: Re: [Homestead] As I foretold you ...




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Oh, the unemployment rates aren't so bad, or so they tell us.  Not to worry,
Teflon is creating jobs all over the place.  I mean, silly people, look at
all the stimulous money and all the small businesses it is helping.

Yeah right.  Welcome to TWENTY-FIVE POINT EIGHT!  That would be the latest
number where I live!

And, can someone PLEASE tell me why, oh why, does he continue to get away
with the bold faced lies.  Are the Republicans soooo very stupid that they
can't do basic research.

Take their little poster child for healthcare, Marcelas Owens.  Ah, so sad.
His mother died at age 27 because she lost her job and then didn't have
healthcare.  ROT!  His mother had a disease which is terminal.  Period!
Did the rightwingers find out *why* she lost her job?  Did they actually
look into what she died of?

Well, let's look at the facts.  She had PH (pulmonary hypertension).  We
don't know what type but since the kid was only 8 or so when she died, he's
probably a good part of the cause of why she died!  AND, the job.  More than
most likely she quit the job, not lost the job.  Folks with PH end up
walking around with those little portable O2 units. PH gradually sufficates
the folks who have it.

She would have waltzed from employment to Social Security Disability and
wouldn't have had to face the routine 1st time denial.  From there she'd
have gotten Medicaid and from there to Medicare, IF she didn't already have
it!

Now, I know about PH because Kidlet #5's wife has PH.  And she's blonde and
she's dumb as dirt!  Back when little Marcelas was born, most women had a
50-80% chance of dying if they got pregnant!  AND, they cut their life
expectancy in half!  Now, they have a 50-80% chance of surviving and
generally only cut 25% off their life expectancy.  Ol' Britney decided those
were pretty good odds.  Got preggers and then decided to tell the Kidlet and
his family about the PH!  She survived but we got a whole education from her
docs (first one dropped her quicker than you can say "bye" because she
wouldn't get an abortion).

So, at anyrate, with a little homework they would have discovered that the
poster child was a fraud.  And, that is a prime example of how both parties
are working.

personally, I'm hoping both parties implode!  Unfortunately there is no
third party as they are all just a bunch of wingnuts with no real idea of
what their parties are all about.  All they do is run around looking for
someone with name recognition and change their platforms like most folks
change their underwear!

I'm on lots of lists that have nothing to do with homesteading or even
gardening and ALL of them are knee deep in talk about gardens.  However, I
do see, even on frugal lists (not "that" list) a whole bunch of folks who
are living in total lala land. That's the folks they hope will show up at
the polls.

Do you, in all seriousness, think he will do anything besides stretch his
neck up somemore and look down his nose and make a speech if there is a big
disaster that is within the U.S.

As to the big quakes, well, most of them have been in Northern CA.  6 plus
is not all that uncommon in the Pacific off the coast of Humboldt and Del
Norte Counties (btw, Cape Mendocino is in Humboldt County, not Mendocino
County).  The last one was in January (6.5).  Cape Mendocino is the location
of a triple junction,Pacific Plate, North American Plate and the Gorda
Plate.  The San Andreas Fault is a transform boundary and runs south form
the junction and north is the Cascadia subduction zone.  And then west runs
the Mendocino Fracture Zone.

You'll get better odds on Northern CA <g>

Lynda
----- Original Message -----
From: "EarthNSky" <erthnsky AT gmail.com>
>
> Careful there, Marie, in that last paragraph, you are starting to sound
> like a Republican!  ;)
>
> I live in a part of the country that is very much politically
> conservative.  Even groups that you might think would be liberal are
> conservative.  People here are disgusted, but more than that, they are
> scared.  Everyone I talk to is very anti-government, turning against
> Democrats AND Republicans.  Things are rough enough in these parts, with
> unemployment in my area pushing 14% or higher, and with this latest
> blow-the health care bill-most folks who had hope, lost it.  The economy
> is toast. I agree with Marie that we are seriously screwed.   It doesn't
> help that the President challenges those who intend to take the bill to
> court by saying things like "Go For It" and "Be my guest".  For all the
> *class* this guy is supposed to have, he isn't very presidential in that
> regard.  He is so cocky...that just doesn't play well here.  I recall
> that Gene? used to say "The revolution is Barack Obama" or something
> like that.  That may be truer than he intended, but not in the same
> way.  I worry about what might happen on April 15th.  People who used to
> think the Tea Party protesters were kooks are now planning to protest,
> after all, they aren't working...unemployment, here or overseas, often
> results in unrest.  Oh and Marie, I think I disagree with you on the
> chemicals thing.  Most of our 'chemical' industry is petroleum based and
> reliant on other economies.  Lots of stuff comes from China, too, like
> waxes and resins and polymer feedstocks.  I'm not so sure about that
> 'edge'-it is pretty much a slippery slope.
>
> I just THOUGHT that a lot of folks planted gardens last year...even more
> will try it this year.  Every where I look, I see folks tilling and
> plowing.   Technically, we are a week or so away from our last frost
> date, but the 15 day forecast shows really warm temps. The pears and
> forsythias and daffodils are in full bloom, and my peaches are there,
> but the plum and the rest of the trees are still waiting. (zone 7)
>
> Anyway, everyone is really, really worried.  I'm lucky that my industry
> is still solid, but I am low on seniority and I am under no illusion
> about job security.  The best I can do is to balance paying off bills
> with doing things like replacing the windows and doors on the house.
> The final blow to the economy will probably be a large natural
> disaster.  I believe this might be the year for the Big One(8+) to
> strike the greater LA area-making my prediction(no guts no glory
> here<g>) for mid May, say between the 12th and the 17th, 14th or 15th,
> somewhere in there. Yup, my money is on a big earthquake in
> CallyFourNia, followed by regional economic collapse and social
> meltdown.  I wonder if the President will be so smug and cocky when the
> riots start.
>
>
>
> --
> "Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will
> not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius
> will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the
> world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone
> are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve
> the problems of the human race"
>
> ~ Calvin Coolidge
>
>
> _______________________________________________
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> Change your homestead list member options:
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