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[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

Bev, you do understand a lot more than you realize........
 
You wrote:  "what really caused this mess"............  and "spending without 
the money in hand".  
 
IMO the answer to what cause this mess is: a fiat currency policy - because a 
fiat currency policy permits "spending without the money in hand".   It 
permits the environment that makes it posible for the non-producers (the 
ass-sitters) to exist at the expense of the producers, by spending without 
money in hand.
 
There needs to be a standard measurement of exchange between producers to 
prevent the environment that fosters non-producers from stealing the efforts 
of the producers.  
 
The standard historically has been many things.  The standard is something 
voluntariily chosen between men based upon the conditions of their time.  As 
James has pointed out - at times it has been rice, other times tortillas.  
Other times it has been sugar, and many times throughout history it has been 
gold/silver, but not at all times during history.
 
The brightest and best amongst us are NOT the ones who believe in spending 
without money in hand.  The brighest and best amongst us believe in 
production.  
 
YOU are a producer - you produce your own food.  You need food.
 
The man you linked to us, the one that makes knives - he is a producer - he 
makes knives.  His knives are in demand.
 
The man who goes to his job building cars that no one wants to buy or can no 
longer afford to buy, only thinks he is a producer.....and today demands 
government bail-outs so he can continued to produce something that people 
don't want.  The man who was once part of production, has morphed into a 
leech, a looter of producers.
 
The ass-sitter man who believes he is "smart" because he figured out how to 
scam someone else (a homeowner who could not afford the home being 
purchased), is finding out his ideas are bankrupt, and non-productive.
 
 
Whether you realize it or not, something in you recognized that something 
macro-economically was/is in the process of changing - so being one of the 
brightest (you are a producer, not a moocher) you chose to change and moved 
to a homestead.  You recognized the outcome of bankrupt macro economics and 
acted. That is what is most important.
 
 
I agree, the fault does not entirely lay within POTUS.... IMO that is the 
b.s. espoused by fools - to solely blame him - instead of ALL of the citizens 
who have contributed to the policies of the last 100 years.    Although 
certainly the POTUS's have a finger in the cookie jar.  For example, POTUS 
Bush II could have used the veto pen and kept Congress's reckless spending 
much more under control......... instead he just allowed a free for all - so 
that he could conduct his war on terror without objection.  Had he used the 
veto pen - he would have delayed the house of cards collapsing for a number 
of more years.  And clearly Obama is going to expand the spending without 
money in hand further than any president before him...........
 
 
 


--- On Sun, 1/11/09, EarthNSky <erthnsky AT bellsouth.net> wrote:


I know zip about economics, but I agree and think that that's why this 
country is not on the road heading out of Trouble.  The fact that the 
best and brightest(whoever that really is) obviously don't get that 
spending without the money in hand is bad tells me that the roller 
coaster has just made the first drop and we have a long ride ahead 
before things level out.  On a good coaster, you always have a notable 
first drop, then a bunch of ups and downs, and maybe one other killer 
feature, like a corkscrew or something.  So yeah, as long as people have 
their heads in the sand about what really caused this mess(and IMO, it 
wasn't the POTUS at fault so change is futile on that aspect), we are 
headed down, down down on a long, slow, torturous crash.

Bev

-- 
"The world is my country, all mankind are my
  brethren, and to do good is my religion."
  Thomas Paine (1737 - 1809)
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> >He accurately identified what steps the Treasury and Fed would take as the
> real estate/credit bubbles popped - including the massive money printing and
> bail-outs, foreclosures etc.
>

Notice the number of times we find someone posting something here that
contains the phrase "accurately identified" or "accurately predicted".   Yet 
we keep
hearing voices from the grey fog saying "Well, nobody knows.  You can't tell
what's going to happen in the future."

Some people seem to have seen it pretty clearly.  Most of what is happening
right now, as we live and breathe, I read about ten and more years ago.  Not
the shotgun effect of predicting all and sundry, but analysts and thinkers who
correctly identified the peak in oil prodution (that was Dec of 2005), the
dot.bomb crash, the housing bubble, and now the coming depression.  I had a
tendency to pay closer attention to those who were getting this right and 
discount
the rest.

So, no, it isn't just a grey fog, toss of the dice, random chance as to what
is going to be happening over the next few years.  There are people who have a
very high accuracy rate and those, says I, have earned a great deal more
credibility than those who have predicted it wrong thus far.

This phrase from your post especially caught my attention:

"Prechter also says that we will really be in a bear market for 100 years...."

Economists have tunnel vision.  They really honestly believe that economies
work by creating money and then goods are created in order for people to get
that money.  Realists, the realist economists, realize that it is just the
opposite.  In a healthy economy,  money comes into being as the result goods 
being
created (goods for the money to represent).

Our current system of debt and deficit are based entirely on the notion that
if we create some money now, people will create goods and services in the
future to get access to some of that money.  That is a risky gamble and the 
odds
are not good.

Believing the construct that goods will follow the money rather than money
will follow the goods, many present day economists have no other language to 
use
rather than describe the future in terms of stock trading, commodities,
treasuries, and all the current financial parlance.  Those who have the 
insight and
courage to see where this is really going look to the future and (accurately)
do not see the old game coming back and so we get the "100 years of  bear
market".   Most likely what they are (again, accurately) seeing is that whole 
old
paradigm is passing away.  Something else will take its place and so to those
who long to derive wealth from shuffling numbers around in a circle and
flipping coins at each other, it really will seem like 100 years of bear 
market.

Comparisons of how we got into our previous depressions, including the Great
Depression, are germane.  But this time making comparisons on how we will get
"out" (whatever "out" might mean) are not.  We began to get out of the Great
Depression by 1938 and we hit the ground running by 1946.  1946 was a time of
creation of new businesses.  Many businesses here (and I'd wager elsewhere)
have their date of founding as 1946.  Here one still sees the transit-mix 
trucks
on with the company logo painted on the drum "A Good Mix Since '46".

1946 was a time when the government abruptly quit employing hundreds of
thousands of people and abruptly ended contracts with thousands of 
businesses.  One
might guess that this would be the recipe for economic disaster but it was
just the opposite.  With no place else to go, people began to make things and 
do
things and as more and more goods and services were created, more money had
to be created to represent them.

Contrast that with now when the O-man wants the government to employ millions
more people.  It will have the opposite effect that it had in '46.  Now there
will be more and more people with money pursuing fewer and fewer goods and
services.

There is another important difference.  During the early 1930's America (and
the world) was still largely rural and there was a farm and farmers in
everyone's families.  There was a place to go where you could be useful and 
lend
toward the productivity for a while until times got "better".  When times did 
bid
fair to get "better", the USA still had most of its oil reserves intact, it
was before the green revolution and agribusiness eroded away most of the top
soil, most farming was done without much chemical fertilizer or diesel or debt
and with no chemical 'cides.  The work force was used to labor and was
physically fit.

Now we are going into a similar economic situation as the 1930's but there
are no farms to which to retreat.  If we try to come "out" of this economic 
time
as we did in hte mid 40's, we face quite a different world than they did.
Our domestic oil has been depleted for 35 years, our topsoil is so eroded that
it only produces abundantly by means of fossil fuel intensive fertilizer and
machinery, the work force thinks that "work" means sitting on their ass and
emailing numbers to each other and is otherwise obese, hypochondric, and walks
around rattling from all the pills they are taking.

Many accuse the visionaries of being "doomers" and painting a Mad Max
apocalyptic future.  It only looks that way if one holds to the unsupportable 
notion
that things can (should, or must) go on as they have for the last ten years
forever.


James