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[Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com>]

I'm seriously starting to wonder about polls. Different sources seem to 
have a poll to prove whatever they want. Realclearpolitics has the 
average of 6 recent polls and shows Obama up by 10.7 points in 
Pennsylvania. The lowest poll in their list has Obama ahead by 8 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

Lynn Wigglesworth


bob ford wrote:
> This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls some of you were 
> mentioning.  The jest of it, I believe, is take them all with a grain of 
> salt.  
> 
> But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this am , this could be 
> setting up a big upset.  PA is almost 70% democrat by registration.  I 
> thought it was over, maybe not. 
> 
>  Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing.  I don't think anyone on the list is 
> old enough to remmber that, but this outcome could be similar.  But, with 
> the economy, it should be a blow-out. 
> 
>  People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were more responsible for the 
> mess than the dumb*ss repubs.  Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully 
> throw many of them in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> "Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico Playbook and Mark Halperin's 
> The Page--three of the main arbiters of Washington's conventional 
> wisdom--are all linking to the latest national surveys from IBD ("close!") 
> and AP-Gfk ("shock!"): they show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1 
> point (44-43), respectively.
> 
>  "The presidential race [has] tightened after the final debate," writes the 
> AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL SHOWS 
> VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media has any incentive to 
> disagree.
> 
> 
> Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain crushing Obama in the sub-25 
> demographic (IBD) and benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in 
> evangelical turnout (AP). 
> 
> Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points among young voters and 
> McCain isn't particularly popular with the born-again crowd, reasonable 
> people--that is, those of us who actually want to figure out who's winning 
> and by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't the best polls 
> on which to base our sense of the race. 
> 
> But that raises the question: how should reasonable people be reading the 
> polls? Here are three tips:................................."
> 
> 
> http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx
> 
> 
>       
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