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  • From: Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com>
  • To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Newsweek -- "A one point race" ?
  • Date: Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:29:04 -0400


I'm seriously starting to wonder about polls. Different sources seem to
have a poll to prove whatever they want. Realclearpolitics has the
average of 6 recent polls and shows Obama up by 10.7 points in
Pennsylvania. The lowest poll in their list has Obama ahead by 8 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

Lynn Wigglesworth


bob ford wrote:
> This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls some of you were
> mentioning. The jest of it, I believe, is take them all with a grain of
> salt.
>
> But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this am , this could be
> setting up a big upset. PA is almost 70% democrat by registration. I
> thought it was over, maybe not.
>
> Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing. I don't think anyone on the list is
> old enough to remmber that, but this outcome could be similar. But, with
> the economy, it should be a blow-out.
>
> People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were more responsible for the
> mess than the dumb*ss repubs. Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully
> throw many of them in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> "Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico Playbook and Mark Halperin's
> The Page--three of the main arbiters of Washington's conventional
> wisdom--are all linking to the latest national surveys from IBD ("close!")
> and AP-Gfk ("shock!"): they show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1
> point (44-43), respectively.
>
> "The presidential race [has] tightened after the final debate," writes the
> AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL SHOWS
> VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media has any incentive to
> disagree.
>
>
> Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain crushing Obama in the sub-25
> demographic (IBD) and benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in
> evangelical turnout (AP).
>
> Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points among young voters and
> McCain isn't particularly popular with the born-again crowd, reasonable
> people--that is, those of us who actually want to figure out who's winning
> and by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't the best polls
> on which to base our sense of the race.
>
> But that raises the question: how should reasonable people be reading the
> polls? Here are three tips:................................."
>
>
> http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx
>
>
>
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