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  • From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Homestead] Newsweek -- "A one point race" ?
  • Date: Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:03:57 -0700 (PDT)

This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls some of you were
mentioning. The jest of it, I believe, is take them all with a grain of
salt.

But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this am , this could be
setting up a big upset. PA is almost 70% democrat by registration. I
thought it was over, maybe not.

Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing. I don't think anyone on the list is
old enough to remmber that, but this outcome could be similar. But, with the
economy, it should be a blow-out.

People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were more responsible for the
mess than the dumb*ss repubs. Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully
throw many of them in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford

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"Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico Playbook and Mark Halperin's
The Page--three of the main arbiters of Washington's conventional wisdom--are
all linking to the latest national surveys from IBD ("close!") and AP-Gfk
("shock!"): they show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1 point (44-43),
respectively.

"The presidential race [has] tightened after the final debate," writes the
AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL SHOWS
VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media has any incentive to
disagree.


Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain crushing Obama in the sub-25
demographic (IBD) and benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in
evangelical turnout (AP).

Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points among young voters and
McCain isn't particularly popular with the born-again crowd, reasonable
people--that is, those of us who actually want to figure out who's winning
and by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't the best polls on
which to base our sense of the race.

But that raises the question: how should reasonable people be reading the
polls? Here are three tips:................................."


http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx







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