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[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

This article in Newsweek talks about the close polls some of you were 
mentioning.  The jest of it, I believe, is take them all with a grain of 
salt.  

But if McCain is doing as well in PA, as I heard this am , this could be 
setting up a big upset.  PA is almost 70% democrat by registration.  I 
thought it was over, maybe not. 

 Could be like the Dewey/Truman thing.  I don't think anyone on the list is 
old enough to remmber that, but this outcome could be similar.  But, with the 
economy, it should be a blow-out. 

 People aren't realizing , yet, that the dems were more responsible for the 
mess than the dumb*ss repubs.  Soon, they will figure out, and hopefully 
throw many of them in jail, and most of them out of office......bobford

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"Which is why the Drudge Report, the Politico Playbook and Mark Halperin's 
The Page--three of the main arbiters of Washington's conventional wisdom--are 
all linking to the latest national surveys from IBD ("close!") and AP-Gfk 
("shock!"): they show Obama's leads at 4 points (46-42) and 1 point (44-43), 
respectively.

 "The presidential race [has] tightened after the final debate," writes the 
AP's Liz Sidoti; Fox posted a new "TIGHT RACE" graphic: "AP POLL SHOWS 
VIRTUAL TIE." Neither McCain, Obama nor the media has any incentive to 
disagree.


Unfortunately, the same polls also show McCain crushing Obama in the sub-25 
demographic (IBD) and benefiting from a 19 percentage point boost in 
evangelical turnout (AP). 

Given that Obama typically leads by about 40 points among young voters and 
McCain isn't particularly popular with the born-again crowd, reasonable 
people--that is, those of us who actually want to figure out who's winning 
and by how much--can probably agree that AP and IBD aren't the best polls on 
which to base our sense of the race. 

But that raises the question: how should reasonable people be reading the 
polls? Here are three tips:................................."


http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx