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[Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

At 2/22/2007, you wrote:
> Paul Ehrlich started talking and writing about human overpopulation
> and predicting subsequent famine and other disasters in the mid-
> sixties. He persists today. His predictions proved overly dire. Which
> is to say, he predicted massive starvation in the seventies and
> eighties which of course did not occur.

Thomas Malthus predicted the same thing only 175 years earlier.  He was one 
of the first to predict that world population would outrun world food 
supply by the mid 1800s.  He was one of the first to recognize that 
population increases are geometric while food increases at an arithmetic 
rate.  His predictions were off for several reasons, mostly because of his 
use of then poorly understood statistics.  Another major reason was that 
the prediction was made just at the beginning of a rapid rise of knowledge 
that significantly increased the food supply while at the same time 
significantly reduced the labor requirements in food production.



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From genegerue AT ruralize.com  Thu Feb 22 10:28:52 2007
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From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
Date: Thu, 22 Feb 2007 08:28:51 -0700
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> > Paul Ehrlich started talking and writing about human overpopulation
> > and predicting subsequent famine and other disasters in the mid-
> > sixties.
>
> Thomas Malthus predicted the same thing only 175 years earlier.

Dennis Meadows (The Limits To Growth, 1972; Beyond The Limits, 1992;  
LTG: The 30-Year Update, 2004) gave a presentation last summer at our  
tiny community center in Brixey, MO. (We call it The Church of Pete,  
as it was a church before being purchased by Peter Callaway for  
community use.) Among fellow academic notables and friends whose  
names he dropped was Ehrlich. He spoke of Ehrlich's predictions. I  
murmured from the second row that Ehrlich had been wrong. Meadows  
heard me, paused, then chose to forge ahead. I again dozed off, Chris  
jabbed me, I awoke, this went on until he was through droning. He has  
given his presentation so many times around the world that he has  
lost all speaking excitement. Very smart guy but he seems to be a one- 
pony show.

Meadows was there because he had just bought the old Eisenmann place  
one ridge north of Heartwood. I take that as an indication that he is  
covering his bet and figures our area is a good place to ride out a  
crash.