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  • From: Martin Naylor <martinwnaylor@yahoo.com.au>
  • To: permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Peak Oil
  • Date: Thu, 13 Oct 2005 09:48:35 +1000 (EST)

nobody is trying to predict the future, psycologicaly, that's absolute
stupidity, look at the psycologist today, look at your religions and cultral
groups of the past, we all realize that thought is of use only in technacal
matters,
there is a profesor from newcastle university, who predicts the future
materialy wise by observing what we have done and where we are going, called
the little green handbook,he claims fortres states will develop as most
likley outcome,
australia is predicting major war in asia by 2020


Bart Anderson <bart@cwo.com> wrote:
Kaia Bronte wrote:

> I notice that a lot of people try to predict the future in relation to peak
> oil scenarios, armageddon, the rapture, aliens invading, and the sun
> exploding. Your guess is as good as Art Bell's I suppose.
>
> We cannot predict the future with any consistent accuracy. Making a plan
> based on an unknowable future is not regenerative--it's folly.

I wish it were possible, Kaia, to concentrate on gardening and "take no
thought for tomorrow."

Unfortunately, peak oil and global warming are two very serious problems
which require a lot of thought. I wonder if you are responding to the wild
speculation -- doomsday scenarios -- about the future? If so, I agree that
they are not very useful.

However, it is both necessary and possible to come to some general
conclusions about the future. There's general agreement that Peak Oil will
occur within the next 20 years, for example, and that the climate will become
increasingly erratic. The price of energy will almost certainly rise, perhaps
dramatically, with both economic and political consequences. The next few
decades will be a period of great change, though the particulars are hard to
discern.

Permaculturalists are well placed to weather the changes, with our emphasis
on reducing inputs and relying on natural cycles. But even permaculture will
undergo a shift, as sustainability becomes critical for survival. Peak oil
writer Richard Heinberg characterizes the coming period as "Sustainability
with teeth."

More on Peak Oil from permaculturalists:

Tim Winton of the The Permaforest Trust in Australia (AUDIO)
http://www.permaforesttrust.org.au/secondary%20pages/peak%20oil%20night.htm

David Holmgren on Energy Descent
http://energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=524

DH: Global Energy Peak: Threat or Opportunity
http://www.holmgren.com.au/html/Writings/Writings.html
abridged version
http://energybulletin.net/2349.html

Holmgren's latest book is one of the best on the subject of a low-energy
future:
"Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability"

Best wishes,
Bart Anderson
http://energybulletin.net
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