permaculture

[William Genest <genest@pivot.net>]

This is an imp't discussion for us IMO - Just read "The long  
emergency - survivng the convergent catastrophes of the 21st century"  
by  James Howard Kunstler- Many permies have probably read his other  
books too - He's hardly a fanatic but oy ! What a picture he paints !  
Two points I would raise re: gene's post: One,  SUV's getting 100 MPG  
- the problem with energy conservation/innovation is that it masks  
the problem i.e. we do more with less, prices stabilize and people go  
back to consuming more - with more people using more oil ( rmemmber  
exponential population growth and the rapid industrialization of the  
third world !) you get a phenomenom like in California which in spite  
of radically improved emissions standards over the years neverhteless  
has worse air quality than ever.

2.It is not the disappeanace of oil in 40-50 years that is the  
problem , but the slightest disruptions of supply that are imminent  
-  We forget how taut are the supply lines of food - that food = oil  
- they are petro-chemical fertilizer, pesticides, fungides,  
herbicides etc . And every bite of food travels 2000km and all of it  
wrapped in plastic ( oil).... Never before have I more clearly  
understood the need for a permanent agriculture....
3. Some areas of the world will do better than other - according to  
Kunstler the southwest is doomed once the airc onditioning gets  
truned off and the Northeast, with its history of democratic  
cooperation and good farmland and water may do better ( though how  
we'll heat our homes I have no idea).

4. All of this has to be contextualized with climate change,  
disappearing forests, water, land etc. Political upheaval and the  
general unsustianbility of everything we know - Americ'as might and  
ability to keep the peace is entirely dependent on oil too...

William

On Oct 10, 2005, at 11:02 AM, efmonaco@comcast.net wrote:

> I've stayed out of the Peak Oil discussions so far because there's  
> too much speculation for my taste:  There are many scenarios  
> including the one where the masses of people realize that the oil  
> is limited, gas goes to $10/gallon, SUV's evolve to get 100 mpg,  
> and the suburbs gradually shrink down to dense urban ecocities with  
> mass transit and sustainable agricultures.  It's one of the  
> possible futures, and one which we should all envision.
> But (you knew there was a but), recent events in the Gulf Coast  
> have shed some light on a scenario that was not as well seen (at  
> least by me).  Did you notice which city got hit with the highest  
> gas prices just after Katrina?  It was Atlanta, at $5/gal, with  
> many stations running dry.  Why?  Because Atlanta has no  
> refineries.  It gets all its gas from pipelines from Pascagoula, MS  
> and Mobile, AL, which were hit.  While fear and price gouging hit  
> everybody to some extent, nearby Houston wasn't nearly as affected  
> because its refineries weren't hit.  California wasn't affected  
> because its refineries weren't hit.  Chicago wasn't affected  
> because its refinieries weren't hit.  And the northeast wasn't much  
> affected because its refineries weren't hit.
> Since the refineries were back online in a few days it all passed  
> by and prices came back down albeit to a new level, which is largly  
> explained by record profits of the oil companies, many of which are  
> also refiners.
> So what if a rough hurricane season knocked out most of the Gulf  
> coast's refineries.  That's more than 40% of US capacity.  Add to  
> that an earthquake in Long Beach, CA and the run on the remaining  
> oil would grind many of the cities of the US to a halt.  That means  
> no food on the shelves, so no need for that long trip to Tobytown  
> from the boonies.  And all in quite short order, a few days max.   
> Looting starts immediately as it did in New Orleans, it moves into  
> the suburbs shortly thereafter, then to the rural areas and  
> ecovillages that everybody knows about.  With sea levels rising,  
> polar ice caps melting, ocean temps rising, etc., this one may play  
> out sooner than the doomsday scenario of chaos due to the last drop  
> being pumped out of the Middle East, which will be swallowed up by  
> China anyway.  Time to dust off that old seed press to make lube  
> oil for the chicken tractor.  Squirrel stew anyone?
> -Gene Monaco
>
>
>
> > Well, I'm not giving up on cities, at least, my
> > city in particular, and I am one of the
> > co-moderators of runningonempty2@yahoogroups.com ,
> > which presently has 5500+ members and has been
> > discussing peak oil since 2001, and I have read
> > every single message in that group.
> >
> > There is certainly a group of peak oil folks who
> > favor a retreat to a remote rural homestead. They
> > generally also believe there will be a fast, ugly,
> > and violent crash/die-off of the human species,
> > from the present 6+ billion to a few million in
> > the space of a few years. See
> > http://www.dieoff.com for more information about
> > that.
> >
> > I tend to think the situation is going to play out
> > as a long, slow grind and general impoverishment
> > (in terms of energy and financial resources). I
> > think my particular city is well positioned to
> > meet those challenges (I live in Oklahoma City).
> > We have a million people in the metropolitan area,
> > but it is low density by the standards of say
> > Boston or New York City. We have 1/6th of an
> > acre, plus the city's easement, and you can do a
> > lot with that.
> >
> > Regarding the suburbs, I wonder if they will
> > perhaps be reborn as market gardens for the
> > central cities. It is possible, for example, that
> > today's upscale suburbs could become the low-rent
> > areas of the peak oil future. After all, many of
> > the poor areas of modern cities were once very
> > upscale neighborhoods. In the early years of the
> > decline of fossil fuels, I expect that a lot of
> > people with resources are going to move back into
> > cities, and probably displace poor people. Zoning
> > changes and the demise of neighborhood
> > associations will lead to these big houses being
> > chopped up into apartments. Since many of these
> > houses sit on large lots, and there tends to be a
> > lot of green space, it is not a big jump to see
> > those lawns turned into intensive food producing
> > gardens, both to produce food for the inhabitants
> > and a surplus to sell in the city.
> >
> > It's true, people in these retrofitted suburbs
> > won't be raising golden acres of grain, but I
> > personally expect that farming of basic staple
> > crops -- like beans and grains and corn for human
> > consumption -- to continue well into the future,
> > and that there will be enough fuel to move them
> > around. I sent a series of messages to
> > runningonempty2@yahoogroups.com which considered
> > the energy required to produce and deliver a basic
> > daily ration of beans and grains (2 pounds if I
> > remember correctly) to everybody in the country,
> > and assuming that (a) all imports were cut off,
> > and only domestic petroleum supplies were
> > available, and (b) that US oil production
> > continued to decline at its historical rate), it
> > would be 40 or 50 years out before there would not
> > be enough domestic oil production to provide that
> > amount of food to everyone in the country.
> >
> > I also expect that livestock production for meat
> > will continue, although the feedlot/confined
> > animal feeding operation system will die.
> >
> > Here in Oklahoma City, if I can get beans and
> > grain and some meat from farm country, I am pretty
> > confident that with what we can raise on our
> > former lawns we would have enough to eat. As
> > things change enough, Oklahoma City will probably
> > change its city ordinances and I could have
> > chickens which would be a real plus.
> >
> > I think over time the big megalopolises will
> > decline in population, and I think that more
> > people will move to rural areas, mostly to small
> > towns and that there will be some movement from
> > the colder parts of the country to the Sunbelt,
> > but I expect cities to endure for quite some time
> > and for there to be enough food to feed the people
> > there.
> >
> > Robert Waldrop
> > http://www.energyconservationinfo.org
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Gryphon Danu"
> >
> > > I'm not so confident about that Toby. Humankind
> > has gotten along quite
> >
> > > well over the ages from living off the land.
> > Afterall , it was energy
> >
> > > from coal and oil that made life in the big
> > cities possible. Once that's
> >
> > > gone, I don't see much hope there -- too many
> > people will be competing
> >
> > > for too few resources; city dwellers are equally
> > dependent on
> >
> > > transported goods, especially food.
> > >
> > > Yeah, living completely rural outside of a
> > community as you once did is
> >
> > > probably a bad choice -- but leaving cities for
> > small, progressive towns
> >
> > > that are in close proximity to agriculture and
> > other natural resources
> >
> > > like timber, good soil, and clean water is
> > really the way to go. I
> >
> > > personally like the ideas they're formulating
> > over at
> >
> > > http://communitysolution.org
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Best Regards,

 William Genest

 - Founder  Green Mountain Permaculture Institute of Vermont
Solutions, Sustenance, Sustainability
www.greenmountainpermaculture.com

- Creator  "Regeneration - The Art of Sustainable Living"
From "Something-Must-be-Done" to Something we can do !
www.regenerationshow.com

- Ecological Coordinator
Club St.Paul Ecological Golf Course

- Vice-President  Green Party of Quebec "pour nous et nos enfants"
www.pvq.qc.ca

- National Spokesperson Green Party of Canada
"The Future is Now ! "
www.greenparty.ca