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  • From: "Tony Spencer" <tony AT tonyspencer.com>
  • To: "'Internetworkers: http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/'" <internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org>, "'http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/'" <"Internetworkers AT happyhouse.metalab.unc.edu:internetworkers"@lists.ibiblio.org>
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  • Subject: RE: [internetworkers] Economic growth figures rigged?
  • Date: Mon, 12 Apr 2004 14:59:07 -0400

Job growth is poor? Perhaps you didn't see the numbers for March and the
revised numbers for January and February.

308,000 jobs in March far exceeding the 100,000 that analysts had been
projecting
Revised number for January and February: added 87,000 more than previously
reported

<http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/02/news/economy/jobs/>

-----Original Message-----
From: internetworkers-bounces AT lists.ibiblio.org
[mailto:internetworkers-bounces AT lists.ibiblio.org] On Behalf Of Michael
Czeiszperger
Sent: Monday, April 12, 2004 1:37 PM
To: http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/
Subject: [internetworkers] Economic growth figures rigged?

For a while now we've been told the economy's in a recovery, but have
been wondering why there isn't more job growth. The article Grossly
Distorted Product in this weeks's Economist by an economist with
Goldman-Sachs details why he believes the current official US economic
growth figures are overestimating economic growth by almost a factor or
two. There are many indicators of this, one of which is the reported
figures for IT jobs outsourced to India are much lower than the figures
India is reporting to have imported in the same time period.

There are many sources for the raw numbers that are used to calculate
the GDP, and one interesting change since 2002 is while the statistics
that are independently verifiable continue to be within historical
norms, the statistics which are estimated have swung way outside
historical norms. Either the fundamental basic of the economy has
changed in the past two years or the current GDP estimates are wildly
incorrect.

If this is true, this would explain how the current economy can have a
high GDP growth while job growth is poor. The answer is the GDP growth
isn't actually high.

The article is here, but unfortunately you have to be a subscriber to
view it :-(

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2577317

Latest US GOV GDP Figures:
http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

___________________________________________________________________
michael at czeiszperger dot org
Chapel Hill, NC

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