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  • From: "Lynn Wigglesworth" <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com>
  • To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think
  • Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 21:31:47 -0500

Wow, Bob...did you read It's Just Time? It's not just economics...it's a treatise on all time and space, with a little Buddhism and non-linear dimensional time thrown in. I'm not following everything he writes, and I go off on little diversions (for example to read up on who Cincinnatus was), but it's really interesting. I thought I'd just skim it because I expected dry economics. I'm only about a third of the way through, but I'll put it in my favorites and pick it up again tomorrow.

Lynn Wigglesworth
----- Original Message ----- From: "bob ford" <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 6:38 PM
Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think


Martin Armstrong (if you are not familiar, he is quite controversial and currewntly in a very tough correctional facility- wiki -link to him below)). many consider him a great economist and interesting thinker. Others just consider him a felon. So, Take what you please .he has just released a pdf, "It's Just Time" (I guess wriiten from prison) , it is long --77 pages- it ends like this:


"We have a choice. Fix what is broken, or die leaving behind nothing of any significance as the dreams that once filled this land evaporate into oblivion. The impatience of capital will not long suffer the suspence of truth. Civil unrest and even war follow economic declines. The clock is ticking. The Civil War cycle' turned in 2002. The Clash of reason is on the horizon. It cannot be business as usual.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------


--- On Sun, 11/9/08, bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com> wrote:

From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think
To: "Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 4:06 PM
Backwardation:

Backwardation is a futures market term: the situation in
which, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for
future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a far
future delivery price lower than a nearer future delivery.

Don, I think this (the concept above) is what we are
looking at with shipping/commodities. In your other post,
you wrote that the country could be headed for cliff's
edhe faster than we anticipated. I am worried that you
might be correct...........bobford


-------------------------------------------------------------------------

--- On Sun, 11/9/08, Don Bowen
<don.bowen AT earthlink.net> wrote:

> From: Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>
> Subject: RE: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity
deflation, I think
> To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com
> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 3:42 PM
> > I fogot about the refineries--you are right.
what do
> you think this
> > means, for most of us. Do you think things will
get
> really, really, cheap
> > as companies go bust and ships have to offload.
With
> that followed by
> > little supply, thus driving prices back up, even
> higher than before?.
> > What commoddities/products will it most affect?

>
> Deflation, inflation, hyperflation, where is it
heading?
>
> There is a chance of hyperflation because of the world
is
> awash in money
> right now but that money is being circulated. Banks
are
> holding on to it
> rather than lending it out because they do not trust
the
> borrowers. Borrows
> are in trouble with excess inventory so they may drop
> prices to clear the
> inventory. Flip a coin, the next few months may very
well
> be much more
> interesting than the last.
>
> Much of the recent commodity price declines are from
> several sources. The
> rise of the US dollar is but one and that seems to
have at
> least paused.
> World wide demand for production materials such as
copper
> is declining
> reducing prices to clear inventory. The speculative
bubble
> has deflated
> requiring holders to sell.
>
> Oil prices have become an important part of some greed
> based economies and
> as such there are attempts to reduce production to
drive up
> prices. Russia
> has not has the anticipated success when they dropped
> export duties on oil.
>
> I remember a conversation this last January where I
said
> that things may
> muddle through unless the layoffs start. Well they
have
> started, the U6
> measure is now 11.8, one year ago it was 7.9. I also
> remember saying that
> if we were still talking about the falling economy
this
> coming January, hold
> on to your hat, the ride was going to get nasty.
>
> In many ways I feel sorry for Mr. Obama. He has a
tough
> job ahead and he
> may not be able to pull it off due circumstances way
beyond
> his or anyone
> else's control.
>
> Don Bowen KI6DIU
>
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html



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