Homestead mailing list

["Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

>   If true,  there should be ships anchored in seaports, not delivering
> goods.  Supply should be larger , already, than demand; and commodities
> that we import should, for a while, became very cheap.

There are a large number of Capesize ships in port, something like 105 or so
"at anchor".  Some brokers are saying as many as 150 could be parked in the
next two weeks.  The BDI does not show if they are loading, unloading, or
just docked.  One problem is the fall off of letters of credit.  Many ships
are unable to offload because customers are unable to pay for cargos.

One report has the daily operating costs, at around $15,000.  The most
recent rate was under $5000.  A few months ago it was near $233,000.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoE181cv.tds
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1529666a-a9db-11dd-958b-000077b07658.html?nclick_c
heck=1
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_
finance/article5069065.ece
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-end-of-deflationary-t
rade-KWREY?OpenDocument&src=sph

This indicates that worldwide trade is grinding to a halt.  Another sign is
China's growth rate is expected to be near 7% after many years of double
digits.  It could drop to below 5% next year.  China has paid for the credit
boom of recent years.  Now we are expecting them to pay for the $700B
bailout.

>  We could be seeing 90 cent gasoline again, soon.

Highly unlikely.  Refineries are shutting down as demand slackens.  

Don Bowen  KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html