Homestead mailing list

[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

I fogot about the refineries--you are right.  what do you think this means, 
for most of us.  Do you think things will get really, really, cheap as 
companies go bust and ships have to offload.  With that followed by little 
supply, thus driving prices back up, even higher than before?.  What 
commoddities/products will it most affect?   ....bobford


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--- On Sun, 11/9/08, Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net> wrote:

> From: Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>
> Subject: RE: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think
> To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 3:06 PM
> >   If true,  there should be ships anchored in seaports,
> not delivering
> > goods.  Supply should be larger , already, than
> demand; and commodities
> > that we import should, for a while, became very cheap.
> 
> There are a large number of Capesize ships in port,
> something like 105 or so
> "at anchor".  Some brokers are saying as many as
> 150 could be parked in the
> next two weeks.  The BDI does not show if they are loading,
> unloading, or
> just docked.  One problem is the fall off of letters of
> credit.  Many ships
> are unable to offload because customers are unable to pay
> for cargos.
> 
> One report has the daily operating costs, at around
> $15,000.  The most
> recent rate was under $5000.  A few months ago it was near
> $233,000.  
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoE181cv.tds
> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1529666a-a9db-11dd-958b-000077b07658.html?nclick_c
> heck=1
> http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_
> finance/article5069065.ece
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-end-of-deflationary-t
> rade-KWREY?OpenDocument&src=sph
> 
> This indicates that worldwide trade is grinding to a halt. 
> Another sign is
> China's growth rate is expected to be near 7% after
> many years of double
> digits.  It could drop to below 5% next year.  China has
> paid for the credit
> boom of recent years.  Now we are expecting them to pay for
> the $700B
> bailout.
> 
> >  We could be seeing 90 cent gasoline again, soon.
> 
> Highly unlikely.  Refineries are shutting down as demand
> slackens.  
> 
> Don Bowen  KI6DIU
> http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html