Homestead mailing list

[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

Martin Armstrong (if you are not familiar, he is quite controversial and 
currewntly in a very tough correctional facility- wiki -link to him below)).  
many consider him a great economist and interesting thinker. Others just 
consider him a felon. So,  Take what you please .he has just released a pdf, 
"It's Just Time" (I guess wriiten from prison) , it is long --77 pages- it 
ends like this:


"We have a choice. Fix what is broken, or die leaving behind nothing of any 
significance as the dreams that once filled this land evaporate into 
oblivion. The impatience of capital will not long suffer the suspence of 
truth. Civil unrest and even war follow economic declines. The clock is 
ticking. The Civil War cycle' turned in 2002. The Clash of reason is on the 
horizon. It cannot be business as usual.



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--- On Sun, 11/9/08, bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com> wrote:

> From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think
> To: "Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 4:06 PM
> Backwardation:
> 
> Backwardation is a futures market term: the situation in
> which, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for
> future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a far
> future delivery price lower than a nearer future delivery.
> 
> Don, I think this (the concept above) is what we are
> looking at with shipping/commodities.  In your other post,
> you wrote that the country could be headed for cliff's
> edhe faster than we anticipated.  I am worried that you
> might be correct...........bobford
> 
> 
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> --- On Sun, 11/9/08, Don Bowen
> <don.bowen AT earthlink.net> wrote:
> 
> > From: Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>
> > Subject: RE: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity
> deflation, I think
> > To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com
> > Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 3:42 PM
> > > I fogot about the refineries--you are right. 
> what do
> > you think this
> > > means, for most of us.  Do you think things will
> get
> > really, really, cheap
> > > as companies go bust and ships have to offload. 
> With
> > that followed by
> > > little supply, thus driving prices back up, even
> > higher than before?.
> > > What commoddities/products will it most affect?  
> 
> > 
> > Deflation, inflation, hyperflation, where is it
> heading?
> > 
> > There is a chance of hyperflation because of the world
> is
> > awash in money
> > right now but that money is being circulated.  Banks
> are
> > holding on to it
> > rather than lending it out because they do not trust
> the
> > borrowers.  Borrows
> > are in trouble with excess inventory so they may drop
> > prices to clear the
> > inventory.  Flip a coin, the next few months may very
> well
> > be much more
> > interesting than the last.
> > 
> > Much of the recent commodity price declines are from
> > several sources.  The
> > rise of the US dollar is but one and that seems to
> have at
> > least paused.
> > World wide demand for production materials such as
> copper
> > is declining
> > reducing prices to clear inventory.  The speculative
> bubble
> > has deflated
> > requiring holders to sell.  
> > 
> > Oil prices have become an important part of some greed
> > based economies and
> > as such there are attempts to reduce production to
> drive up
> > prices.  Russia
> > has not has the anticipated success when they dropped
> > export duties on oil.
> > 
> > I remember a conversation this last January where I
> said
> > that things may
> > muddle through unless the layoffs start.  Well they
> have
> > started, the U6
> > measure is now 11.8, one year ago it was 7.9.  I also
> > remember saying that
> > if we were still talking about the falling economy
> this
> > coming January, hold
> > on to your hat, the ride was going to get nasty.
> > 
> > In many ways I feel sorry for Mr. Obama.  He has a
> tough
> > job ahead and he
> > may not be able to pull it off due circumstances way
> beyond
> > his or anyone
> > else's control.
> > 
> > Don Bowen  KI6DIU
> >
> http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html
> 
> 
>       
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