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  • From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] was BDI , now 'It's Just Time' Martin Armstrong
  • Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 18:41:56 -0800 (PST)

Lynn;I;ve only read a few pages. It will take me more than a week. my eyes
(brain?) cannot handle constant reading from an internet source. I become
very physically and ocularly stressed when reading from a screen without
taking breaks.

I did , however, find a couple of quick reviews and this one ,very well
written, synopsis (below). he has a long time following, but I did warn of
his detractions. You will be hearing more about this, I would imagine, as
more people read it........bobford


----------------------------------------------------------------------


On Martin Armstrong's 'It's Just Time'

by: ContraHour November 03, 2008

I have had the privilege of reviewing and sharing Martin Armstrong's new
essay "It's Just Time," dated October 10th, 2008. As many of you know from
last year's NY Times article by Gretchen Morgenson, Martin Armstrong has
spent almost nine years in prison for contempt of court, more years than if
he had been actually convicted of securities fraud. It's a disturbing tale
of injustice involving one of the greatest economic and market minds of our
time.

I ran across Martin's work in my original studies of market and economic
cycles after the NASDAQ bubble began to burst. While I didn't know it at the
time, his Economic Confidence Model encapsulated all the cycles from
Kitchin's to Kondrateiff's and could predict market turns almost to the day.
I was fascinated enough to cut and past a copy of his article, "The Business
Cycle And The Future" from his Princeton Economics web site. Little did I
know that nine years later, Martin would be in jail and my blog would be one
of the last public sources of his Business Cycle essay.

Martin's economic work should have received a Nobel prize by now. Instead,
the man is relegated to recording his thoughts on a single-spaced, IBM type
writer from prison. His 77 page essay can be accessed here (pdf warning).

In the first part of his new essay, Martin provides a deeper explanation of
his economic cycle theories. Traders and investors will be fascinated by his
elaboration of the 8.6 month internal cycle, his 224 year political cycle and
the 37.33 Month cycle frequency. He also explains the inter-relationship
between the shorter 8.6 month cycle and the longer cycles which are currently
dominating the economic and market landscape. Finally, Martin offers a brief
glimpse into a previously undisclosed volatility cycle called the Schema
Frequency.

The second part of the essay is wide ranging and sometimes difficult to
comprehend. In it Martin makes references to his own plight while
implicating numerous international political and financial figures in a grand
conspiracy. I have no way of judging the veracity of Martin's theories as to
why he has been jailed for nine years on contempt of court. His tale is a
mix of "Three Days of the Condor" meets "The Man Who Knew Too Much." What I
do know is that the facts surrounding his jailing are as unimaginable and
unbelievable as the accuracy of his models and predictions. For the sake of
the nation's economic well being, his thoughts should be heard by the new
Administration not from behind a jail cell, but face to face in the Oval
office.

Having been called on by heads of state and corporate CEOs, Martin follows
through by offering his solution for the current financial crisis - a crisis
he predicts will end the reign of the United States as the leading financial
super power unless drastic action is taken.

We must come to face the real facts. Traditional old world economics is no
longer applicable. The greatest error of the money supply being fixed to the
gold standard, was that the discovery of gold determined the supply of money
altering policies of government and subjecting the private sector to swings
in the boom and bust sense that would be influenced with respect to amplitude
increasing volatility. We can see such periods following the Gold Rush of
1849 in California and the consequence~ of the deliberate inflation created
by the "Silver Democrats" that led to virtual bankruptcy requiring J.P.
Morgan to bailout the government in 1896.

No doubt there will be those who would never consider deliberate inflation as
fiscal irresponsibility. However, when Paul Volker was fighting the commodity
boom into 1980 and raised short-term interest rates, we must realize that the
biggest spendthrift within society is the government.

By deliberately raising interest rates to stop private sector spending, the
national debt was put on an exponential growth path. The Government cannot be
the stationary "disinterested" observer in Einstein's theory of relativity.
It cannot see its own actions because it is so busy trying to attribute blame
to everyone else. This is the fate of our nation at stake. This is the future
of our children. Are we to be so irresponsible like a drug addict who steals
today with no regard for the consequences just to obtain that quick fix?

If we merely borrow to fund the economic bailout, we have two major problems.
The contraction of leverage far outnumbers the actual money supply even if we
now count all cash and outstanding debt as money. Because there has been no
regulation of the amount of leverage between banks as is done within the
exchanges who raise and lower margin requirements in futures to manage the
amount of leverage ("gearing”), we are looking at a contraction that could
exceed the GDP in multiples. We must realize that borrowing to bailout the
banks, is economically indistinguishable from moving money from your left
pocket to your right. We are actually further adding to the economic
contraction by soaking up cash in the system and redistributing. This is
merely a form of Marxism. What we must to is to expand the sheer actual money
supply to offset the contract in the "real" money supply created by the
private sector in electronic format that is also indistinguishable
from suddenly discovering gold in California back in 1849. The fiscal policy
of the nation has been usurped by the bankers, who did not even understand
what they were doing.

We need to review the Keynesian theory. Borrowing does not stimulate for it
will not-increase the money-supply to compensate for the contraction. Even
buying the debt from the banks by injecting more capital, is pouring bad
money after even worse money. The Sub-Prime Mortgages 'should be purchased
from the banks at current market value, placed in a public fund not managed
by bankers, allow the mortgages to be renegotiated into a fixed rate,
extending the time if necessary, but revaluing the property as Julius Caesar
did, and setting up a reasonable payment schedule. If the homeowner cannot
cope with the payments, then they lose the home. The bankers have to suffer
their fate. Let the banks reorganize and consolidate, and there must be the
survival of the fittest. That is not to say we should abandon FDIC. We must
stand behind all bank deposits. That is the price we must pay as a nation'
for the failure to regulate the "big" houses as we do the "small"
players.

We must collect the Sub-Prime Mortgages into a single fund that should then
allow private investment. Individuals could invest even their 40lKs in part,
and we must curtail government borrowing at all costs. Those who do not want
to see the "social" spending of the Democrats, we should realize that there
would have been ' far more than a chicken in every pot had we not spent so
much on interest. In fact, had there not been interest payments, we could
have spent the same amount of money and there would be a national healthcare
like that in England. We must confront what is going on. It is time we
restructure Government itself. Locking up every person in Banking or Wall
Street will not solve the problem. Capitalism is not at fault. The "club"
seeks “riskless" trades and rely upon Government to cover losses so why
bother worrying about risk? Long-Term Capital 'Management collapsed when the
IMF could not continue to support Russia that the "club" was
buying their paper at 50-100% rates of interest. This is the same problem.
The Sub-Prime Mortgages displaced risk for they looked to the Government as a
guaranteed trade. That is not capitalism -' that is plain old fashion
corruption. Let us deal with the truth!

The bad portfolios in Japanese corporates were purchased with a note removing
the problem allowing them to get back to business. Do not allow, the banks to
work-out these problems and do not hire bankers to control the bailout. Hire
qualified fund managers who will not protect the banks. A lawyer who
represents "himself has a fool as a client. Bankers protect bankers. How can
you prosecute the people in charge of the bailout? We need independent
management and consolidation of SEC, CFTC and the Federal Reserve into one
regulatory' body that protects the system, not individuals.

It is time for serious reorganization.

Stop the Marxism! We need to return to basics. End the income tax & replace
it with a 10% National Sales Tax (excluding raw food & basic clothing) that
also include real estate. China has boomed because it had no income tax! This
is what the men who established this nation established until Marxism began
with the passage of the income tax only for the rich in 1909, that now
applies to everyone. Stop borrowing money from the poorest with no interest
masking it as a "refund" check confusing them to make it appear as a gift. Do
this, and we will reestablish jobs in America and

it will matter not if someone is an illegal alien or not for they will still
pay their fair share. We are losing jobs because of high taxes and high
heathcare costs that just make it cheaper to set up service oriented jobs in
India, Philippines, or Mexico. It is time the BOO pound gorilla lost a little
weight. This will create a offsetting economic boom that will save the
nation. Marxism does not work. We cannot be a little-bit pregnant. The
Constitution was established to preserve the "Blessings of Liberty" to all
posterity, not depending upon race, creed, or class. Marxism was a disaster.
It should offer no model for the future. Just look at Russia and China. If we
do not reorganize, Ayn Rand will be correct!

We can still have the benefit of a collective society that affords common
goals to secure the individual way of life. There must be the funded programs
with the growth in spending limited to the GDP growth that must be set by a
global 'economic independent organization not subject to the political
pressures of one nation. The economic statistics are bogus. They are
politically manipulated like inflation to reduce government "spending where
many areas are indexed to CPI. Government will always corrupt itself. The
reason we have the “Julian Callendar" is because the Romans knew the moon
callendar was incorrect and that additional days had to be inserted to
maintain the seasons. Thus, someone had to be given the job to decide how
many days to insert and when. That Job was given to the High Priest ("Pontiff
Max!!), who was routinely bribed to stall elections by inserting months at a
time. When Julius Caesar walked in to government, he did massive reforms
and thus he eliminated the corrupt job of managing the callendar. This
illustrates that we must remove the temptation to manipulate economic
statistics to effect certain policies. As they say, statistics can be made to
ensure they do not tell the truth. Carrots are very dangerous, because
everyone who has ever eaten one has eventually died! Every country calculates
their statistics according to a unique formula. How can we even compare
economic growth from one nation to another?

We can monetize part of the debt by redeeming a specific quantity with newly
generated cash. There should be some controls on the quantity of dollars
created internationally through regulation carried into place by the Federal
Reserve. We must also reestablish the entire purpose of the numerous branches
of the Fed. That was put in place after the San Francisco Earthquake and the
Crash of 1907. It was understood that there was a problem of regional capital
flows. To prevent a shortage of cash that led to bank failures in some
regions, each branch was autonomous that allowed for interest rates to be
higher in some regions. We-saw these problems in the 1980s, where a single
national interest rates was used to stop stock market speculation that
depressed farmers, because for World War II, all policy was usurped into
Washington because there was to be a great expansion in debt. We need to stop
using a giant club to stop one effect by punishing everyone. Do
not forget, lower interest rate may not entice, investment (see Japan 0.1%),
yet it will deprive the elderly who are one of the largest savers, from
earning an income when they no longer can work.

Just like a company gone into distress, we just have to deal with the whole
problem. If we think we can just have big public trials like Nero did with
the Christians to cover-up the burning of Rome, then we are going to have no
future. You can execute all those on Wall Street. It still will not help. We
need real legal reform and stop the abuse of prosecutions for political
purposes. The true wealth of a nation is its consistent Rule of Law that
protects not merely the personal liberty of citizens, but their property. If
the Rule of Law is not going to be upheld and can be even manipulated for
religious purposes, then we are just reducing ourselves to a Banana Republic
with nuclear weapons & capital will flee!

'We need serious reform of how government", operates. We need a single agency
to regulate the financial markets and banking. We have to stop the buying-off
of Government attorneys and if they are not interested in a career, then get
your experience someplace else. We need integrity to be restored. We must
stop the abuse of "big" firms instigating the government agencies to remove
competitors. This is either going to be a nation of true liberty, or
melt-down the statute of liberty and use it for handcuffs and stop the
propaganda. We must realize that "real" capital will flee if we are not fair
and consistent in our treatment of all those within our society. If we are so
intolerant that the Calvinistic forces that seek to gain control of the law
to effect religious objects, we are no better" than the Taliban in
Afghanistan. True liberty and freedom is a given that is divine. Everyone has
the free will to pray or to sin. A sin to one group is not a sin to
another. There are a host of variations in Islam, Christianity, and Judaism.
Who is "right and who is wrong is not for courts or government to legislate.
We must defend the right to speak freely for everyone, or we will silence
ourselves. It "was the " hatred of the Protestants against the Catholics that
not only tore England and Ireland apart, but led to "prohibition " in the
United States to create laws to imprison the catholic Irish and, Italians.
That created the Mafia, was responsible for countless death, untold waste of
national wealth, and was repealed in the end. No more!

As Margaret Thatcher once said, "It is just time.” She instinctively knew
'that cycles exist because people just get tired of the same old thing. We
have an absolute right to good honest government. That: is the battle cry of
every civil war known to history. Just as Julius Caesar was a man of the'
people who was cheered when he crossed the Rubicon, we need someone of
integrity so bad, unless we obtain honest reform, we are perhaps inviting the
Gods of War to return. The people crave a fresh start, and they crave fiscal
responsibility. Where are the aspirations, dreams and promises of Jefferson &
Madison? Where have they' gone?

'Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) wrote a most notable epitaph in his celebrated'
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire first published between 1776 and
1788. describing two men who ascended the Capitoline Hill in Rome to survey
that which remained. One" remarks to the other:

"Her primeval state, such as she might: appear in a remote age, when Evander
entertained the stranger of Troy, has been delineated by the fancy of Virgil.
This Tarpeian 'rock was then a savage and, solitary thicket: in the time of
the poet, it was crowned with the golden roofs of a temple; the temple is
overthrown, the gold has been pillaged, the wheel of fortune has accomplished
her revolution, and the sacred ground is again disfigured with thorns and
brambles. The hill of the Capitol, on which we sit, was formerly the head of
the Roman empire, the citadel of the earth, 'the terror of kings illustrated
by the footsteps of so many triumphs, enriched with the spoils and tributes
of so many nations. This spectacle of the world, how is it fallen! how
changed! how defaced! The path of victory is obliterated by vines, and the
beneches of the senators are concealed by a dunghill.”

Id./Chapter LXXI

We have a choice. Fix what is broken, or die leaving behind nothing of any
significance as the dreams that once filled this land evaporate into
oblivion. The impatience of capital will not long suffer the suspence of
truth. Civil unrest and even war follow economic declines. The clock is
ticking. The Civil War cycle' turned in 2002. The Clash of reason is on the
horizon. It cannot be business as usual.




http://seekingalpha.com/article/103613-on-martin-armstrong-s-it-s-just-time


--- On Sun, 11/9/08, Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com> wrote:

> From: Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity deflation, I think
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 7:31 PM
> Wow, Bob...did you read It's Just Time? It's not
> just economics...it's a
> treatise on all time and space, with a little Buddhism and
> non-linear
> dimensional time thrown in. I'm not following
> everything he writes, and I go
> off on little diversions (for example to read up on who
> Cincinnatus was),
> but it's really interesting. I thought I'd just
> skim it because I expected
> dry economics. I'm only about a third of the way
> through, but I'll put it in
> my favorites and pick it up again tomorrow.
>
> Lynn Wigglesworth
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bob ford" <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
> Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 6:38 PM
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity
> deflation, I think
>
>
> > Martin Armstrong (if you are not familiar, he is quite
> controversial and
> > currewntly in a very tough correctional facility- wiki
> -link to him
> > below)). many consider him a great economist and
> interesting thinker.
> > Others just consider him a felon. So, Take what you
> please .he has just
> > released a pdf, "It's Just Time" (I
> guess wriiten from prison) , it is
> > long --77 pages- it ends like this:
> >
> >
> > "We have a choice. Fix what is broken, or die
> leaving behind nothing of
> > any significance as the dreams that once filled this
> land evaporate into
> > oblivion. The impatience of capital will not long
> suffer the suspence of
> > truth. Civil unrest and even war follow economic
> declines. The clock is
> > ticking. The Civil War cycle' turned in 2002. The
> Clash of reason is on
> > the horizon. It cannot be business as usual.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> >
> > --- On Sun, 11/9/08, bob ford
> <bobford79 AT yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> >> From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> >> Subject: Re: [Homestead] BDI showing big commodity
> deflation, I think
> >> To: "Don Bowen"
> <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> >> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 4:06 PM
> >> Backwardation:
> >>
> >> Backwardation is a futures market term: the
> situation in
> >> which, and the amount by which, the price of a
> commodity for
> >> future delivery is lower than the spot price, or a
> far
> >> future delivery price lower than a nearer future
> delivery.
> >>
> >> Don, I think this (the concept above) is what we
> are
> >> looking at with shipping/commodities. In your
> other post,
> >> you wrote that the country could be headed for
> cliff's
> >> edhe faster than we anticipated. I am worried
> that you
> >> might be correct...........bobford
> >>
> >>
> >>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >> --- On Sun, 11/9/08, Don Bowen
> >> <don.bowen AT earthlink.net> wrote:
> >>
> >> > From: Don Bowen
> <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>
> >> > Subject: RE: [Homestead] BDI showing big
> commodity
> >> deflation, I think
> >> > To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com
> >> > Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 3:42 PM
> >> > > I fogot about the refineries--you are
> right.
> >> what do
> >> > you think this
> >> > > means, for most of us. Do you think
> things will
> >> get
> >> > really, really, cheap
> >> > > as companies go bust and ships have to
> offload.
> >> With
> >> > that followed by
> >> > > little supply, thus driving prices back
> up, even
> >> > higher than before?.
> >> > > What commoddities/products will it most
> affect?
> >>
> >> >
> >> > Deflation, inflation, hyperflation, where is
> it
> >> heading?
> >> >
> >> > There is a chance of hyperflation because of
> the world
> >> is
> >> > awash in money
> >> > right now but that money is being circulated.
> Banks
> >> are
> >> > holding on to it
> >> > rather than lending it out because they do
> not trust
> >> the
> >> > borrowers. Borrows
> >> > are in trouble with excess inventory so they
> may drop
> >> > prices to clear the
> >> > inventory. Flip a coin, the next few months
> may very
> >> well
> >> > be much more
> >> > interesting than the last.
> >> >
> >> > Much of the recent commodity price declines
> are from
> >> > several sources. The
> >> > rise of the US dollar is but one and that
> seems to
> >> have at
> >> > least paused.
> >> > World wide demand for production materials
> such as
> >> copper
> >> > is declining
> >> > reducing prices to clear inventory. The
> speculative
> >> bubble
> >> > has deflated
> >> > requiring holders to sell.
> >> >
> >> > Oil prices have become an important part of
> some greed
> >> > based economies and
> >> > as such there are attempts to reduce
> production to
> >> drive up
> >> > prices. Russia
> >> > has not has the anticipated success when they
> dropped
> >> > export duties on oil.
> >> >
> >> > I remember a conversation this last January
> where I
> >> said
> >> > that things may
> >> > muddle through unless the layoffs start.
> Well they
> >> have
> >> > started, the U6
> >> > measure is now 11.8, one year ago it was 7.9.
> I also
> >> > remember saying that
> >> > if we were still talking about the falling
> economy
> >> this
> >> > coming January, hold
> >> > on to your hat, the ride was going to get
> nasty.
> >> >
> >> > In many ways I feel sorry for Mr. Obama. He
> has a
> >> tough
> >> > job ahead and he
> >> > may not be able to pull it off due
> circumstances way
> >> beyond
> >> > his or anyone
> >> > else's control.
> >> >
> >> > Don Bowen KI6DIU
> >> >
> >>
> http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Change your homestead list member options:
> >
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> >
> >
> >
>
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