Homestead mailing list

[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

On Sep 16, 2008, at 7:47 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

> > > 1. Nobody knows the future for sure.
>
> Yet in the major topics shaping out times like oil and finance, a  
> pattern is
> emerging.  Some people have a very good track record for analyzing and
> predicting the flow to things and some have just the opposite.  It's  
> not just one of
> those things with the lottery balls bouncing around, it's not  
> random.  Some
> analysts have been uncanny accurate in their predictions.  Spooky,  
> even.

This is worth more discussion.

Various people in various industries have done exceptionally well for  
themselves and those who followed them. A far larger group have  
failed. No one, no one has a crystal ball. Yes, some people are more  
knowledgeable, some are more discerning, some have a better sense of  
what items will carry the weight. It is fun to read and talk about  
current experts; it is a gamble to bet your future security that you  
have found such a person.

If anyone, anyone, were correct fifty-one percent of the time we would  
do very well to follow them. I have a friend who has a PhD in finance,  
is a vice-president of a major brokerage, is a financial advisor, is a  
professor of finance. He is wise enough to know that no one can  
dependably do better than to unemotionally spread his bets across a  
wide investment pool. Just as we homesteaders would do well to have  
seeds from several varieties of our preferred veggies and fruits, just  
as we would do well to have scattered gardens, just as we would do  
well to have multiple tools that will produce firewood, just as we  
would do well to have multiple friends with multiple skills, so, too,  
we would do well to spread our risk.

5. Bottom line, I like land that will produce food and fuel, and then
> > invest in seeds and tools and common necessities such as clothes,
> > salt, toothpaste, toilet paper. And good beer.
>
> Do that first.  But there's another tack to this.  Get into a cottage
> industry and invest your money in yourself rather than someone  
> else's industry.  For
> example, if you were a quilt maker, buy bolts of cloth, batting,  
> thread,
> frames, etc.  Those things stored well are inflation proof.   If  
> money becomes
> worth one fifth its current value, then in the future you charge  
> five times as
> much for a quilt ... your original investment back with interest  
> that keeps up
> with inflation plus the profits from your own involvement:

I like cottage industries. Even such industries must have customers  
who not only want the product but who can pay cash or barter. Do not  
depend on that condition. A sinking ship puts all passengers into the  
water.

Have several life preservers.

Expect others to want into your raft.