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[Clansgian AT wmconnect.com]

> >One more time: no one has a crystal ball. 

One more time, you'd me mistaken in that.  When one's attention is diverted 
by that belief, this leads one to dismiss those accurate predictions (even 
while they are happening) as 'I don't even waste my time talking about that!" 
 

Many of the predictions are conditional .... if the Fed does this then the 
result would be .... if more than 10% of borrowers default on their loans 
then 
.... if the current rate of oil consumption continues ... etc. etc.  So some 
of 
the conditions did not materialize and so some of the predicted results did 
not happen.  I've seen many of the top economists being quoted only on the 
apotadis with the protasis ever being mentioned.

The flip side of this is true too.  While those with foresight have been 
dismissed along the way, others who have been nearly 100% wrong the whole 
time 
continue to be quoted.  David Lereah and Lawerence Yun come to mind.  Their 
"predictions" that the bottom is in sight and the market return is just 
around the 
corner that came out every two or three weeks were continually wrong for 
three 
years now.  Yet every week I see a blurb or two where some prediction about 
the housing market is quoted from the NAR without the tagline that they have 
not been right once in years now.

>Good luck following those  
whom you believe do have one.

I don't need luck, I have the predisposition to seek out the facts.   As far 
as economic news and advice, I'm no respecter of persons.  It is simply that 
some have a better way of presenting the facts than others.

The 'crystal ball' premise and wishing someone 'good luck' in picking the 
right economic psychic are based on the idea that you will make your best 
guess 
at picking an expert, much as you would a race horse, and then hope your 
guess 
was good.  I don't do that.  I give the experts my attention to explain the 
basis of their predicitons and if they can and if it's sound and if they've 
been 
right most of the time in the past, it's a good bet that I can use my own 
judgement and come to the best conclusion.

So, I say, good luck relying on luck.  I don't.   </HTML>