permaculture

["Robert Waldrop" <bwaldrop@cox.net>]

Actually, Cuba is not the only nation to face the 
near-complete loss of petroleum access.  Zimbabwe 
and North Korea are two other examples, and they 
are truly cautionary tales of how to create a 
dystopia.  In Zimbabwe, as their access to oil 
dwindled to almost nothing, the government sent 
soldiers and bulldozers through the poor sections 
of the major cities, and literally drove people 
out into the rural areas, destroying their homes 
behind them so they had no place to return to.

On the subject of providing cities with food. . . 
some time ago I sent a series of messages to my 
runningonempty2@yahoogroups.com peak oil 
discussion group with my back of the envelope 
calculations for the amount of fuel required to 
grow and transport 3 lbs of beans and grain per 
day to feed the nation, and concluded that even if 
something catastrophic happened that cut us off 
from all petroleum imports, US domestic production 
would be sufficient for food production up through 
48 years in the future, at that point, food 
production and transportation would take about 28 
days of US domestic oil production.

My conclusion is not that we have nothing to worry 
about, however, my point was that we could avoid a 
mass die-off IF we can develop a rational response 
to the growing shortage of fossil fuels.

Bob Waldrop, Oklahoma city


The question has been asked, "How do we feed NYC
after the peak?"

It actually isn't easy to find fuel consumption
statistics for shipping grain, but I have been
digging around for a few days and finally found a
study from Iowa that discusses the relative
amounts of fuel consumed in shipping grain from
Iowa to Japan and to Amsterdam.

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/grain/resources/publications/buspub/baumel01.ht\
\
m

For long distance shipping, trucks are the least
fuel efficient method, by orders of magnitude. To
move grain from the Midwest to NYC, that leaves
two options: train and a combination of
barge/ocean shipping. With the latter, grain
would move down the Mississippi via barges and
then be loaded in New Orleans on ocean ships which
would deliver grain to NYC and other east coast
ports (or via the Panama Canal to west coast
destinations. This already happens, another site
I found said that Minnesota sends 9 million tons
of grain down the Mississippi river every year.
60% of our current grain exports move by barge to
port cities.

The efficiency of barge traffic depends on what
happens going back up the river, for barges that
go down the river must go back up the river if
they are to come down again next year loaded with
more grain and beans. Going down the river, barge
traffic averages between 950 and 1250 ton miles
per gallon of fuel. Ocean shipping via a large
ship averages 1053 ton miles per gallon, in a
smaller ship it is 575 ton miles per gallon.

Trains move grain with an efficiency of 437 to 640
ton miles per gallon, assuming the train returns
empty. Trains would go directly from collection
points in the Plains states/Midwest to NYC. Going
by boat is more efficient per mile, but it
involves a lot more miles.

The New York metropolitan area has a population of
22 million people. To provide 22 million people
with 3 lbs/day of grain and beans per day (dried
weight) is 66 M pounds/day, or 33,000 tons/day,
which is 12 million tons/year.( Presumably this
would be supplemented by urban agriculture in
those areas and food brought in from farming areas
closer to the NYC area than Iowa.) Figure two on
the page referenced above estimates the total fuel
to move a ton of grain from Iowa to Japan, and
separates the fuel for the unit train to take it
to the west coast and then the fuel for the ocean
voyage. I don't have an atlas handy, but I don't
think Iowa is further from NY than it is from the
West Coast. If anything, it is probably a bit
closer to NY than to west coast shipping ports.
Anyway, it looks like 4 gallons per ton, Boone
Iowa to west coast via train.

Thus, it would require 48 million gallons of
fuel/year to feed NYC with midwestern grain and
beans.

There are 44 gallons of petroleum products in a
barrel of petroleum, so this would be a bit more
than a 1.09 million barrels of oil. (I know this
includes a variety of petroleum products but this
is a back of the envelope calculation, not a peer
reviewed scientific treatise.)

US oil production peaked in 1970 at 11.6 M
barrels/day. In 2004, US domestic oil production
was 8.6 million barrels per day, a decline of 2.9
M barrels/per day, which is a 25% decline in 34
years, or .73%/year. More recently it seems to be
declining at a rate of about 1.5% a year, based on
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t44.xls . From
2001-2002 there was a slight increase in oil
production.

At a 1.5% decline rate, it will take 48 years for
US domestic production to decline to 4.3 million
barrels/day. The fuel requirement to feed the NYC
metropolitan area population of 22 million, at the
rate of 3 lbs of beans and grain per day, in 48
years would be about 6 hours worth of US domestic
oil production (1.09 million barrels to transport
food to NYC for one year divided by 4.3 million
barrels of domestic oil production per day.). If
the decline rate is 3%, it would be 12.24 hours of
US domestic oil production (1.09/2.15).

If the decline rate is 6%, then it would take two
days' US domestic petroleum production to feed the
NYC metropolitan area 3 pounds of beans and
grains/day, dry weight (1.09M/.54M). Which is
actually a lot of food, once it is prepared and
cooked.

If we consider the fuel cost to feed NYC metro
from Boone, Iowa as a proxy for how much fuel it
would cost to provide the same amount of food to
everybody in the country, then we divide 300 M by
22 M and get 13.64, times 1.09 million barrels
equals 14.87 million barrels of petroleum to
distribute 3 lbs of beans and grains to 300
million US residents..

Starting from a base of 8.6 M barrels of domestic
oil production per day. . . going forward 48 years
into the future. . . US oil production per day,
and number of days production required to ship 3
pounds of beans/grains to 300 million Americans ,
would be as follows given 1.5%, 3%, and 6% annual
rates of decline. . . using the rule of 72 to
calculate. . .

1.5% -- 4.3.M barrels/day -- 3.46 days
3% -- 2.15 M barrels/day -- 6.9 days
6% -- 540 K barrels/day -- 27.5 days

These figures are for US domestic PRODUCTION,
assuming zero imports.

In reality, the fuel required is likely to be
somewhat less than this, as the fuel cost to ship
grain by rail from Tillman County, Oklahoma to
Oklahoma City will be much less than the fuel cost
of Iowa to the west coast. And over that 48
years, I expect a population shift from urban
areas back to rural areas.

The purpose of this exercise is to show a
theoretical possibility. Whether it will happen
this way, we won't know until 48 years have passed
the peak. It does illustrate, however, why I am
not ready to give up the ship and move directly to
the die-off.

Robert Waldrop, OKC

PS. Someone feel free to check my math. For
those who don't know about the rule of 72, divide
the rate of depletion into 72 to find out how many
years it will take for production to decline to
50% of the base year. It also works with
inflation. To find out how long it will take to
lose half the value of your money, divide the
inflation rate into 72. e.g. 3% inflation means
that your money loses half its value in 24 years,
so in 48 years it would be 25% of the original
value (lose half in the first 24 years, lose half
the rest in the next 24 years).

+++++++++++++++++
In a previous message, I detailed my back of the
envelope calculations regarding the possibility of
delivering 3 pounds of beans and grains every day
to everyone in the nation as far as 48 years into
the future past the peak of world oil production.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/message/22442

The question then became, all right, if we can
deliver it, can it be produced?

The purpose of this email is to discuss whether or
not large quantities of commodity foods in the
form of grains and beans (primarily soybeans) for
distribution could be produced in the first place.

Any set of scenario parameters is arbitrary, of
course, but to do calculations you have to have
some place to start from.

(1) Some kind of nasty international situation
cuts us off from all oil imports, so we can rely
only on US domestic production.

(2) The Confined Animal Feeding Operation system
closes down in its entirety, the commercial
chicken houses, feedlots, and giant hog farms, all
gone. This will produce a temporary glut of meat
on the market, followed by a sudden scarcity of
meats, eggs, and dairy.

(3) All irrigated farming for grain, corn, and
soybeans stops. Those lands are returned to
pasture.

(3) Depending on the crop, 30 to 50% of the
remaining cropland is converted to raising compost
crops to fertilize the remaining cropland.

(4) Yields per acre for grain, corn, and soybeans
decline by 50% across the board in the first year.

(5) The commercial vegetable industry collapses
(the big high input heavy pesticide/herbicide
vegetable plantations).

GRAIN

In 2005, 56.6 million acres of grains were
harvested (wheat, oats, rye, barley, millet),
yielding a total production of 2.6 billion bushels
of wheat (1 bushel equals 60 lbs). 3.6 million are
irrigated. Avg yield = 45.5 bushels/acre.

Taking out the irrigated land leaves us a base
acreage of 53 million acres.
Converting 30% of that to the production of
compost crops leaves 37.1 million acres of grain.
37.1 million acres times an average yield of 22.75
bushels/acre = 844.45 million bushels, which is
50.67 billion pounds, which is 169
pounds/grain/year/per person (based on a
population of 300 million).

How much oil to produce this amount of grain? I
spoke with my cousin who farms several thousand
acres of grain, and he says figure 6-7
gallons/diesel per acre of wheat, or if using
no-till, 3-4 gallons of diesel, inclusive of fuel
for the harvest. Most no till methods require
heavy inputs of herbicides, so for the purpose of
this calculation I will use the higher number, an
average of 6.5 gallons/acre, TIMES 53 million
acres equals a an annual requirement of 344.7
million gallons of diesel, which comes from 7.83
million barrels of oil. US oil production is
presently 8.6 million barrels/day.

CORN
Last year, 11.8 billion bushels of corn were
harvested from 73.6 million acres, an average of
160 bushels per acre. 13.9% of that acreage was
irrigated.

Deducting the irrigated acres, we are left with
63.9 million acres. Converting half of that to
compost crops leaves us with 32 million acres of
corn, reduce the yield by 50% to 80 bushels/acre,
yields a harvest of 2.5 billion bushels, times 56
pounds (weight of a bushel of corn) divided by 300
million population, equals 477 pounds
corn/year/per person.

One internet source I found cited 10.5 gallons of
diesel and gasoline fuel per acre of corn
(tillage, planting, harvesting). 9.6 gallons of LP
gas are used per acre for drying the corn, + 35.6
kwH/acre of electricity. 1 gal of diesel = 128K
BTUs. 1 gal of LP gas = 93K BTUs. 1 kwH = 3,412.
For the purposes of this back of the envelope
calculation, I am going to convert the LP gas and
electricity to BTUs and then figure the equivalent
in gallons of diesel. Over time it seems likely
to me that solar drying would replace burning
fossil fuels to dry corn, but in the first year
there won't be enough time to build sufficient
solar dryers. This would be an additional 7.9
gallons/acre, for a total fuel for corn production
of 18.4 gallons/diesel. For the compost acreage,
I am going to use the same figure per acre that I
used for wheat, 6.5 gallons/acre.

Corn acreage = 31.9 million acres, times 18.4
gallons/acre = 588M gallons
Compost for corn acreage = 31.9 million acres
times 6.5 gallons/acre = 207.7 million gallons
Total gallons of diesel: 795.8 million gallons, or
18 million barrels.

SOYBEANS
I am using soybeans as a proxy for all bean and
pea production.

3.1 billion bushels of soybeans were harvested
from 73.9 million acres last year, 5.5 million
acres were irrigated. Avg yield 42.5 bushels (60
pound bushels).

Deducting the irrigated acres, we are left with
68.5 million acres. 30% of this is converted to
compost crops, this leaves 45.2 million acres,
times 1/2 yield (21.25 bushels) yields 960.6
million bushels, divided by 300 million
population, equals 192 lbs/person/year (based on
300 million population). One internet source I
found cited 7.4 gallons/diesel, .9 gallons
gasoline, per acre. for a total of 8.3 gallons
liquid fuel/acre.
http://www.extension.umn.edu/newsletters/ageconomist/components/ag237-693b.html
(same source as the corn figures).

22.8 million -- acres of compost crops for
soybeans, times 6.5 gallons = 148 million gallons
45.2 million -- acres of soybeans, times 8.3
gallons = 375 million gallons
523.5 million gallons total fuel, or 11.89 million
barrels for soybeans

ANNUAL PRODUCTION PER CAPITA SUMMARY
169 pounds grain
477 pounds corn
192 pounds soybeans
--------
838 pounds of beans/grain = 2.2 lbs of dried beans
and grains/day, person.

This is short of my food distribution estimate of
3 lbs/person/day, but it seems to me that 2.2 lbs
of dried beans and grains, once cooked, is going
to provide a lot of food per person.

FUEL REQUIREMENTS:
Soybean production fuel 8.5 million barrels
compost to fertilize soybean production fuel, 3.4
million barrels

Corn production fuel 13.3 million barrels
compost to produce corn production fuel 4.7
million barrels

Grain production fuel 3.9 million barrels
compost to produce grain production fuel 3.9
million barrels

Total crop production fuels: 25.7 million barrels
of oil
Total compost crop production fuels: 12 million
barrels
Total crop + compost fuels: 37.7 million
barrels

This would be 4.38 days of US domestic oil
production (8.6 million barrels/day, 2004)

If the depletion rate is 1.5 %, in 48 years this
would require 8.8 days of US domestic oil
production.

If the depletion rate is 3%, in 48 years this
would be 17 days of US domestic oil production.

If the depletion rate is 6%, in 48 years this
would be 70 days of US domestic oil production.

Transportation fuels, per my previous message,
total 14.87 million barrels/year.

Adding in the transportation fuel requirement, I
get the following back of the envelope calculation
for fuel required to produce 2.2 lbs of beans and
grains per person and then distribute 3 pounds of
food/person, per day, for a year.

In 2004, this would be 6.11days of US domestic oil
production (8.6 million barrels/day)

If the depletion rate is 1.5 %, in 48 years this
would require 12.26 days of US domestic oil
production.

If the depletion rate is 3%, in 48 years this
would be 23.92 days of US domestic oil production.

If the depletion rate is 6%, in 48 years this
would be 97.54 days of US domestic oil production.

CONCLUSION
My conclusion is that for at least 48 years into
the future, even in a situation where we were cut
off from all oil imports, we could maintain enough
food production to feed 300 million Americans 2.2
pounds of dried beans/grains per day based on
growing the food in rural areas and transporting
that food to the cities.

Over that 48 years, of course, many many
adaptations would be made. Big cities would
decline in size, rural areas would increase in
population, urban agriculture would become very
popular, there would be a huge growth in market
farming in areas closest to cities. The first two
years or so would be the hardest, after that the
advantages of organic cultivation would begin to
be realized and my expectation is that yields per
acre would rise considerably. The total area of
cultivation for food would be likely to shrink as
the yields expanded.

My expectation is also that fossil fuel required
to produce this food would also decline. Large
machinery uses more fuel than smaller machinery,
and over that 48 years farm machinery is very
likely to shrink in size. Land retired from food
production may be shifted to fuel production.

How would this fuel be allocated? There would have
to be a ration system, and the easiest way to do
that would be to take these average figures of
fuel use per acre and ration the fuel based on
acreage in production. This would reward frugal
producers and encourage non-frugal producers to
get a lot more frugal really quick.

I showed this to someone and he said, "Bob, you
are taking all the fun out of this. Peak oil
isn't so interesting without mass starvation."
Well, those kind of interesting times I can pass
on, but people shouldn't get the idea that I am
proposing that Wal Mart will remain open and our
diet will be just like what we eat now. There is
a big difference in getting by on 2.2 lbs of dried
beans and grains, plus whatever you can grow on
your former lawn, and maybe some potatoes and
turnips and a parsnip or two if you are lucky, and
the present abundant gluttony we experience. For
one thing, there will be a lot less meat in this
diet, as whatever beef is produced will be
strictly forage fed.

This scenario also does not consider root crops,
cultivation of root crops on farms is likely to
continue, and based on my present calculations it
seems likely to me that there will be fuel for the
production and the transportation of potatoes,
sweet potatoes, beets, parsnips, etc. from rural
areas into cities. But I promise another
installment in the future that looks at root crops
and oil crops (for food), but right now my eyes
are bit glazed from looking at spread sheets and
running numbers. I always knew those years as an
administrative assistant to a health care
economist would come in handy some day.

I do think that this back of the envelope
calculation serves to demonstrate the utility and
importance of urban agriculture, and gives support
to those of us who have decided to not abandon
cities at this point.

Finally, I would like to point out that the peak
oil concept itself is based in the rigorous
application of scientific principles. This should
also be true for our contemplations of the likely
results of the peak of oil production and its
subsequent decline. While there are many
predictions in the peak oil literature of mass
starvation, I do not recall anyone else doing this
kind of detailed calculation using real world
production figures and applying them to future oil
production scenarios. Anyone who thinks farmers
are just going to give up doesn't know much about
farmers.

I don't think anyone should look at these
calculations and say, "Oh, this won't be much of a
problem after all," because that's not what I am
saying. Peak oil will be a big problem for food,
but it is not such a big problem that we cannot
find a solution, unless of course we decide right
now that we won't find and solution. Then we
won't look for a solution, so we won't find one.
And that's how you end up with die-off.

As for the rest of the world, well, they will have
to find their own way. I think there is no doubt
that US food exports have done much more harm to
world food security than they have helped, and
ending them will provide opportunities for farmers
overseas to do their thing without being driven
into bankruptcy by cheap US food exports. If there
are absolute shortages in the first couple of
years, the US is likely to go into any emergency
scenario with our typically large stockpiiles
(which is a "whole nother area" of food security I
haven't touched upon) and those stockpiles could
be used for one or two years, both here at home
and to relieve absolute shortages elsewhere.

Robert Waldrop, still planting fruit and nut trees
in Oklahoma City