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  • From: Michael Winslow Czeiszperger <michael AT czeiszperger.org>
  • To: "Internetworkers: http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/" <internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [internetworkers] textile workers of the future?
  • Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2003 22:35:42 -0500


On Saturday, April 5, 2003, at 12:29 PM, BigLee Haslup wrote:

I am not sure I agree that the demonstrable success of open-source projects is that strong an argument for the feasibility of off-shore outsourcing.

I think the above argument is moot. We will see more of what's happening already-- competition from products written by totally foreign companies. (Can you say SAP?) The fast growing foreign software market means there is no longer any advantage to being in San Jose over Bangalore since Europe and Asia both have big and fast growing markets. Its not outsourcing, but rather entire divisions or companies being based overseas.

I've seen this firsthand in my market where the newest big competitor did an IPO in Israel, and used the big pile-o-cash to produce the same type of product that's for sale from US companies but for a fraction of the price. That's global competition, and that's what we're up against without having "lost" any jobs in the US to outsourcing at all. Not to mention offshore venture capital firms funding their own local startups.

On Saturday, April 5, 2003, at 10:27 AM, Steven Hilton wrote:
The problem with this is that, almost by definition, there can only be
so many "top" experts in the world on a given technology. If everyone is
a "top expert" on something, then you can move "top expertness" offshore
too.

So how does one become a "top expert" when all the jobs needed to gain
the "top expertness" experience is offshore?

There will still be a US IT industry, its just that there will be a lot fewer programmers in it. Most likely the cheaper entry level programmer I will be in more demand than older programmers II-IV who cost more, only instead of having 10-15 years before being fired they'll only get 5-7 years. So, you graduate, get a job, and have 5 years to either get promoted to management, become a top expert in some speciality, or save enough money to buy a Mailbox's R-US franchise. Or more likely, get laid off and have to be retrained in something else, like heating and air conditioning repair.

(I know a truly excellent programmer who just went back to trade school to be a Heating and Air Conditioning repair person. He was just too old, and rather than watch his life savings deplete while looking for job decided to just get out.)

________________________________________________________________________ _________
Run, run, run, as fast as you can. You can't catch me, I'm the stinky cheese man!
-- michael at czeiszperger dot org, Chapel Hill, NC




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