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  • From: Michael Winslow Czeiszperger <michael AT czeiszperger.org>
  • To: "Internetworkers: http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/" <internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [internetworkers] textile workers of the future?
  • Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2003 08:26:00 -0500


On Friday, April 4, 2003, at 10:14 AM, Paul Jones wrote:

"No offense, guys," Holcomb told his co-founders, "but programmers are the
textile workers of the future."

in Tech jobs leave area, go overseas
http://www.newsobserver.com/front/digest/story/2407498p-2241912c.html


Unfortunately the article is only too true. The writing is on the wall-- the US is no longer the only place where most software will be written. Not only are US companies outsourcing programming overseas, but entire companies are forming overseas that will compete with the US companies that are left.

The reasons why the US tech economy is in decline are many:

* Other countries have people who are just as smart
* Other countries have people who are just as well educated
* Other countries have people who are just as experienced
* Other countries also have their own economies with money to invest to start companies.
* Some other countries have a lower cost of living

I would be happy to illustrate each of the above points, but for the sake of brevity will move on to other topics. There's been several points made why "we" have nothing to fear, and that is definitely not the case.

The trend we're going to see over the next 10 years will at best greatly reduce the growth rate of the US tech. economy, and at worst shrink it. Think I'm exaggerating? Take the numbers for the software testing tools market, a market in which my company competes. In 1999 75% of the sales in the market were to US companies, with a mere 25% to offshore companies. This ratio has gradually changed every year, so that by 2001 the sales were completely split 50/50 between US and non-US customers. Not only that, but the overall size of US sales actually shrunk during that time, while overseas sales grew 30%.

Why is this relevant to technology as a whole? Because software testing tools are sold to companies actively doing software development. Sales in this market reflect trends in the international tech. economy, because when a new project starts up, they hire people and *buy software development tools*! The sales of software development tools is a direct measurement of new job creation. These numbers are a tangible, accurate quantification of the scope and magnitude of the huge changes in our industry. This is not a "frog in hot water" scenario where changes happen so gradually you don't notice. In the span of only two years there's been a massive shift of new jobs overseas.

But offshore development doesn't work you say? (Or at least isn't as good has everyone working in the same room.) This is demonstrably false, both with my experience working for companies with multiple locations, and from open source projects, in which no one works at the same location. Mostly cases where you get a win from having everyone in the same room is for custom software developed for in-house use with short development schedules. The writing on the wall for this type of development is that companies are using less and less custom code, and using more and more off-the-shelf software. As you look at each major category of software the typical company will use, each and every category is being attacked by either a customizable proprietary or open source solution. Sure, companies will still write custom code, but we're talking about a trend that will take 10-20 years to complete. (For those of you just out of school, that means before you retire.)

And as the shift to more packaged solutions continues, the actual product development can be done anywhere. When you're writing software for an international market, there's no advantage to being in San Francisco when you've got plenty of talent and potential customer contacts in Europe. The coding that does need to be done in close proximity to the customer will be the customization of the big packages for businesses. Unfortunately, those jobs tend to be road warrior affairs where you have to fly to the customer sites for 6-12 months at a time. These will be the types of jobs that entry level programmers will have to do, because they tend to be younger and more mobile.

I have my own experience working at a remote site for Sun. They have development sites all over the world, including Russia. Their approach was to simply move an entire product to a remote site. You don't have to worry about communications problems so much because the entire team is somewhere else, so the communication between the remote site and the main corporate headquarters is at the very high requirements level. And the remote location forces the company to have a formal development process that clearly communicates requirements.

But, experienced software architects and "programmer V" types will always be able to find jobs! This point of view is most often taken by experienced software architects :-) The fact is, there are experienced people in the US, who having moved to the US to go to school and stayed for a career, are now moving back their home countries to raise families and start companies. Not to mention experienced workers who never left the country in the first place. There's no reason why as the internationalization of the software industry continues there won't be experienced high-level people available all over the world who are just as good as you, and cheaper to boot.

The question remains as to how to have a career in technology given that global competition will at best greatly reduce the growth rate of the US tech. economy and at worst shrink it. The key for individuals in my opinion is to become one of the top experts in the world in a particular technology. Write articles, publish books, go to conferences. You can no longer sit in a cube and code to what ever project comes along. And this should start as an undergraduate, so that by the time you get out you have real evidence of your expertise.

Another avenue is to start a company and compete on your own. Its potentially more risky, but also potentially more rewarding.

___________________________________________________________________
F is for Fire that burns down the whole town!
U is for Uranium ... BOMBS!!
N is for No Survivors!!

P.S. This sig is from SpongeBob, not a sick war commentary! Signatures are not meant to be taken seriously.The squashy stretchy cartoon world does not intersect with the all too real looney foreign policy of the current administration.




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