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["Josep L. Guallar-Esteve" <jlguallar AT maduixa.net>]

As always, this is long, my only opinion, you agree to not sue me if you
read it, do not read this while playing with your food, etc etc etc


On Wed, 2002-10-09 at 12:11, David R. Matusiak wrote:
 
> it pleases me greatly to now see that there are actually 4 (four) 
> people who are thinking about this. with myself included, we could 
> probably rig up a helluva jazz quintet.  i dunno, maybe bluegrass.

jazz sounds nice. maybe even progressive rock.
 
> i would also like to know who or what "IISS" is.  i would also like 
> sound, rational answers to the following list of questions (forwarded 
> with permission from original author):

IISS: http://www.iiss.org/

International Institute for Strategic Studies.

An independent think tank, based in the UK. As themselves say:

"The IISS is the primary source of accurate, objective information on
international strategic issues for politicians and diplomats, foreign
affairs analysts, international business, economists, the military,
defence commentators, journalists, academics and the informed public.

The IISS's work is grounded in an appreciation  of the various
political, economic and social problems that cause instability, as well
as the factors that can lead to international cooperation. The IISS is
independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no
allegiance to any government, or to any political or other
organisation."

I have great respect for their works, always independent, always right
on the point. For example, the Adelphi Papers are quite an impressive
set of printed researchs. Only Jane's Group can be thought as their
'rivals' in strategic information. 

All the "Strategic Studies " centers around the world are modeled after
them, although they all pale in comparison.

> ---
> I think there are some questions that should be
> investigated and answered:

> 1) What are the origins of the Al Quaeda movement, who
> trained them, armed them and backed them in the
> beginning.

I thought that this had already been answerd by all the news agencies in
the world, circa December'2001. Maybe you would want to read "bin Laden:
The Man Who Declared War on America". IIRC this book was first published
in 1999.
 
> 2) How difficult is it to find a dialysis dependant
> 6"5' Arab who had his toes blown off during the
> Soviet-Afghan war and his buddy the blind Taliban
> Mullah who was ruling Afghanistan a year ago?

In a western country? a few weeks. In an area that looks much like 13th
century?  who knows. Specially when the locals are not co-operative and
US operatives were removed from the area long ago.
 
> 3) Why is the administration so unwilling to have a
> threat assesment for Iraq done?

Impatience, lack of qualified experts on foreign affairs, lack of formal
foreign policy before 2/2001 , although today's policy doesn't strike me
as 'well thought' nor 'sound'.
 
> 4) Is the Iraqi threat to create AND deliver
> biological, chemical and/or nuclear weapons against
> their populace or a neighboring populace greater or
> equal to any other country?

It is definitively greater. They already had the capability to store NBC
(Nuclear, Bacteriological, Chemical) weapons and they have already used
that capability, both against internal and external enemies. They also
have a dictator not supported (blackmailed/payed/trusted/put in place)
by any western power. And that dictator has been in power for a long
time (think Franco, Pinochet, Tito...) so it has developed both an
authoritarian style and a 'gusto' for violence.

> 5) Should the there be "regime change" in Iraq who
> will replace Saddam?   Will the new government be able
> to hold itself together in the long run?

I would like to see myself the older brother of the current King of
Jordan. A few analysts got to this conclusion when the latest King
Hussein of Jordan changed the successor to his throne. If you all read
history, you will find that the Hachemite family (rulers of Jordan) were
the family to rule Saudi Arabia or Iraq after the dissolution of the
Ottoman Empire (end of WWI). Instead, they were put in a small,
resourceless country in the middle of nowhere. The Hachemites rulers
have a proven track of good and intelligent leaders that do well with
their people and with the neighbours.

> 6) Will the new regime be able to effectively
> introduce lasting democracy to a culturaly diverse
> population? Will we be prepared to handle the choices
> made by an Iraqi democracy?

Maybe a federation or confederation will work at Iraq. Thus, while
granting a certain degree of political autonomy, you are also avoiding a
single group reclessly ruling over the other groups. Also, I don't
believe that Iraq is ready for democracy in, at least, 2-year period.
Get a strong, respected man. A Hachemite King, appointed by a coalition
of Arab states anyone?
 
> 7) Are we willing to station troops in a hostile
> Afghanistan and Iraq for a decade or more to ensure
> security to new governments?

This has already been planned for Afghanistan. If (IF) there's war with
Iraq, whoever wages war will need to be there at least 5 years.
 
> 8)  How much of our Middle-Eastern foreign policy is
> guided by an interest to protect Israel on the basis
> that they are "the chosen people?"

None. 

Maybe the US has a special interest in protecting the only democracy in
the area. Think about it. They have free elections. Women have rights.
And there's a sizable population of dual-passport (US, Israel) citizens.
As well as, of course, they are part of US markets abroad and a market
where to shop for technology. 

Hey! with money, your citizens, democracy and women rights involved, do
you need more?
 
> 9) Is there solid evidence tying the government of
> Iraq to terrorist networks?

None linking with Al Qaeda. Although it's well known the Iraqi tradition
of funding, training and arming terrorist groups that primarily act in
the middle east. IT is supposed to be a non-agression pact between Iraq
and Al-Qaeda. But no formal alliance. They are not 'natural allies' as
you might thing. Al Qaeda are terribly religious (well, they *think*
they are) and see the non-religious government in Iraq as an
abomination.
 
> 10) Will the US go after all governments that have
> used chemical and biological weapons on their
> populations?

The UN should go after (politically or/and military) regimes that
present a real threat to use NBC's against its own population and/or
neighbouring countries.

 
> 11) Is the effort to go to war with Iraq a part of a
> bait and switch...to redirect the US gaze from a
> stalled effort to find the Al Quaeda bosses to a
> winnable war?

I don't think so. I believe that they found out about Iraq's situation
by mistake and then, someone said "H*ly Cow Manure!" and started this
war-talk that we see now. I expect the war-talk to tone down, the US
Government be realistic and take the time needed to build a coalition
that can put the fear of $DEITY on Saddam and get the inspections back
on the terrain and the Iraqi regime dismantled in, say, 3 years form
now.
 
> 12) What are the real motivations to going to war?  Is
> it a vendetta from the circa 1993 foiled assasination
> attempt of the elder President Bush?  Are the
> motivations an attempt to consolidate the oil rights
> of the middle east and Asia for US and British oil
> interest? Or is it because we're afraid that Saddam is
> capable of destroying the Iraqi and Arabian oil fields
> and throwing the world and especially India and China
> into economic disaster (Both India and China have seen
> their oil consumption rise dramatically in recent
> years and they receive the majority of their oil from
> the Arabian peninsula).

Check your sources. US is switching its oil providers. Now African
countries, Russia and Central-Asian republics will be our main
providers. Not a coincidence that a Georgian (? Russian?) oil tanker was
in a Texas oil port this last July, 4th.
 
> 13) Is the Administration's motivation to direct our
> attention from an absent economic policy?

If you can define 'economy policy' as lower taxes "just because", then
your point is null.
 
> 14) Why are so many Pentagon leaders, especially Army
> officials opposed to going to war with Iraq now?

Because they know that war is evil, it's non trivial, and this time,
some city-fight will be required. Has anyone seen "Black Hawk Down" or
"Stalingrad"? city-combat is bloody.
 
The military says "sure, we will prevail. But it will be costly". And
they do not like to send "the boys" to die unnecessarily.

> 15) Is the Iraqi threat related to Al Quaeda and if so
> how closely?

Both have common enemies. That is, the US and the Western world.
 
> 16) Who has the most to gain from the results of a regime
> change in Iraq?

The Iraqi people, if the regime changes to a similar thing as I have
exposed on 5) and 6).
 
> Something to ponder: In the late 90's the UN conducted
> a study that concluded that at the current rate of
> consumption that all of the known oil fields (tapped
> and untapped) would be depleted in 75 years.  In that
> time, SUV sales have skyrocketted and the world's two
> largest populations have begun to increase
> industrialization.

Using diesel now. ~50 mpg . And I can use BioDiesel, a fuel that can be
made with vegetable oil or with a mixture of fossil oil and vegetable
oil. Can anyone say "from TobaccoState to BioTexas"?
 
> I think we as a country should seriously consider what
> we're getting ourselves into before we rush off to war
> and I sincerely hope that we get some answers within
> the week.  Do I think Saddam is a bad guy, hell yeah.
> But I don't want to see our conflict that will spread
> us to thin to protect ourselves. One last thought, are
> we trying to supply Richard Ashcroft with inspiration
> for his next song?
> ---

Never rush into a war. Then it takes forever to exit the war. Grab a big
stick, yes. Show it to the bad guy. Get a bunch of friends. Be
determined to act... and then use just politics... while you have
+200,000 troops on the borders of his home. Supersonic booms over his
winter palace also help :)




Salut,
Josep
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