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[bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

I don't think Mr. Panarin would call the results of his prediction "bad 
things".  He is considered a serious intellectual, but his idea that 
Tennessee and the Carolinas would join up with NY and NJ for a Euro dominated 
Atlantic alliance, shows a lack of understanding of this country.

There are many 'doom and gloom'  "phrophets" --some very smart , most 
not--who are predicting everything from the apocalypse to simply a painful 
severe recession.  As you said, it is a guess.  Everyone needs to educate 
themselves to the best of their ability, and try to figure the best way to 
plan for themselves.  

Personally, I think things will become unlike anything we have ever seen.  
Actually, that is already the case.  But, as people credit cards and credit 
lines are cut-off; and the stores, businesses and restaurants they frequent 
close down, it will no longer be just an economic reality , but a serious 
adjustment in lifestyle.

Still, the people with the most now, will still have the most in the depths 
of this cycle, and the people with the least, the hardest workers among us, 
will have even less.

  I think by the end of 2009, people will think we are in a recovery, but it 
will be a false recovery -- a trap.  I really believe we are looking at five 
to eight years of severe economic struggle, after which, if we can smarten 
up; the markets and our finances will be stronger than they have been since 
the 1950's.  I also think that at least one war during that time will help to 
re-invigorate our economy.  

Most of what I think will occur is based on systems that are not fair; but 
that do reflect reality.

I hope I am completely wrong and that the economy is back to normal in 2-3 
years.  I prefer the optimist's guesses to my own.  But, I am trying to 
prepare for either scenario..................................................

----------------------------------------------------------------------


--- On Mon, 12/29/08, Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com> wrote:


> If one wishes to be in the game of predicting how bad things
> will  
> become, one must get seriously negative. This is a quote
> from an  
> article in the WSJ about a highly regarded Russian
> academic:
> 
> "Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration,
> economic  
> decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war
> next fall and  
> the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or
> early  
> July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with
> Alaska  
> reverting to Russian control."
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
> _______________________________________________