Homestead mailing list

[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

On Jan 23, 2008, at 1:27 PM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

> Is it time now to tactfully point out that there WAS indeed a real  
> estate
> bubble, it burst, and sales and prices are all toilet bound?  It  
> wasn't local and
> it is identifed as the main cause of the looming deep recession.

Gotta be cautious with that "all" word, James.

The real estate slowdown is widespread but, yes, real estate is local.  
Here's a for-instance. The last time I checked, Houston was the 4th  
largest city in the country:

2007 CONCLUDES AS THE SECOND BEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR PROPERTY SALES IN  
HOUSTON
Average and median single-family home prices continue to rise despite  
a fourth consecutive decline in sales in December
 HOUSTON — (January 16, 2008) — The year 2007 shaped up to be one of  
the best on record for property sales in Houston, second only to 2006,  
according to statistics released by the Houston Association of  
REALTORS® (HAR). That milestone was achieved despite a fourth  
consecutive decline in sales in December that reflects the effects of  
the real estate slowdown that has taken a particularly heavy toll on  
markets outside Texas.
http://www.har.com/mls/dispPressRelease.cfm

New York has a few people, too:

New York home prices: No place but up
Prices are higher than ever in Manhattan, while inventories and time- 
on-market are down. You got a problem with that?
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 3 2007: 3:39 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If there's one place where the housing  
slump seems to be a figment of the imagination, it's New York City. A  
home in Manhattan is more expensive than ever, according to the latest  
reports from several big New York real estate brokers.
The median Manhattan condo or co-op apartment sold for between  
$840,000 and $895,000 during the three months ended June 30. The low  
estimate was reported by two brokers, Halstead Property and Brown  
Harris Stevens, while the Corcoran Group pegged it at $875,000, and  
Prudential Douglas Elliman recorded the high figure among the group.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/02/real_estate/record_sales_in_new_york/index.htm

And New York's pricier real estate is the place where all those stock  
brokers make obscene money. The stock market is far more volatile and  
"bubblelike" than real estate. The DOW can drop more in a couple days  
as some say the average real estate price dropped during the entire  
year of 2007.

Do not discount the numbers or the buying power of the affluent. Here  
in the Phoenix MSA, "Last year, 2,227 million-dollar homes sold across  
metro Phoenix, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of real- 
estate data from the Information Market. That compares with 2,505 in  
2006, which is about an 11 percent drop."
http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articles/0120mostexpensive0120.html

Let's see: 2,227 times a million. I think that is about two-and-a- 
quarter trillion, that's with a T, but math is my weak suit. You do  
the multiplication. Note that most of those homes sold for much more  
than the bare million. And, most of them sold for cash or with huge  
down payments.