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  • From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] IEA dismisses 'peak oil' fears, this am
  • Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:47:33 EST



> >Those Canadian companies that were gung-ho on the 'tar-sand-oil'?, are
> having to sit back because productions costs are too

The most obvious definiton of 'peak oil' is when the world produces X amount
of crude oil per month and no matter the circumstances does not physically
produce any more than that.

Hubbert King in 1956 predicted amid jeers and ridicule that oil production in
the lower 48 would peak in 1970 and go into decline forever after that.
Indeed it peaked i 1970 and has been in decline ever since. He also
predicted
that world production would peak in 2000. The charts follow his prediciton
with
uncanny accuracy until we get to the economic recession of the 1970's which
saw a great demand destruction and delayed the peak. It occured in December
of
2005. In that month the world produced the greatest amount of crude oil in
history and has not produced that much since, even in the face of increased
demand in the past few years (sending the price soaring).

Peak Oil has already occured and remains a fact until what time there is a
month of production higher than Dec of 2005.

Now we are seeing another time of demand destruction which is effectively
clouding the effects of limited production capacity.


James




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