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[Clansgian AT wmconnect.com]

> >Do the housing bubbles run on 20 or 30 years cycles?

Lynda,

The scuttlebutt is this isn't just another cycle.

First there are the superlatives in the data.  Todays stat was that equity in 
homes is lower now than it has been since 1945.  The country returning from 
war and with GI bill money suddenly there were millions more in houses and as 
you'd expect,. the bank had most of the equity.  Now with the smarmy loans 
that 
enabled the bubble, 100% and more, equity is at historic lows.  The stat 
homeowners hold less than 50% equity in their houses on average for the first 
time 
ever.

That was 'ever'.  It's one of those words that carries some headiness like 
'never'.  That's taking all homeowners including those of us who have 100% 
equity and averaging them together and the average, for the first time, EVER 
is 
less than 50%.

Looking at the cold, hard stats one comes across 'ever' and 'never' many 
times.  Most and largest percentage of houses in foreclosure ever,  greatest 
and 
fastest drop in home values ever, biggest number of houses and largest 
percentage of houses with negative equity ever, largest number of unoccupied 
houses, 
largest number of abandoned houses ... ever ... list goes on and on.

Moreover, with transportation costs rising rapidly, heating costs rising 
rapidly, and water in dubious supply, many see the end of suburbia upon us.  

People like to point out that stocks can't be compared to real estate since 
with real estate you have something, well, 'real' and with stocks they can 
evaporate entirely.  This of course, isn't true, many if not most comapnies 
have 
some real assets as real as house and property.  That's why in bubble of tech 
stocks, they lost  more than half their value but did not got to zero.  The 
NASDAQ at it's highest was over 5000.  People who saw their investments 
evaporate 
said, "It's always cycled, this is just another cycle."  But here eight years 
later, it's still less than half the value it was then.  The loss was 
permanent.

Because of the extent of the problem and the superlatives involved and the 
world energy situation, many see the devaluation of real estate as being a 
cycle 
from which it will not recover in our lifetimes.

James   </HTML>