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Re: [Homestead] Wastewater costs 340 times Colorado River water

From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Subject: Re: [Homestead] Wastewater costs 340 times Colorado River water
Date: Wed, 01 Nov 2006 09:06:15 -0600

"In once hot markets like Boston are now down by more than 10 percent from their high point. The same goes for parts of the Phoenix area, where the number of homes on the market has more than doubled to 45,000 since last October."

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/061029/6housing.htm

From the same article one reads this:
"Indeed, the national inventory of 4.3 million unsold homes now stands at about a seven-month supply, a glut some economists say will persist until sellers make meaningful cuts in their asking prices."

A "glut"? A normal market has a six-month supply. Seven months is ho-hum. Some economists and some journalists need to educate themselves before making misleading and harmful statements.

"National housing prices took a record fall in September as the pace of sales skidded for the sixth consecutive month. The median price for an existing home nationwide -- including single-family houses, condos and co-ops -- dropped 2.2 percent"

Some bubble pop, a whole 2.2 percent. And that after two or more years of appreciation well up into double digits. Ho-hum.

" For example, a major home builder has told me that the share of unsold
homes has topped 80 percent in some of the new subdivisions around Phoenix and Las Vegas, which he labeled the new "ghost towns" of the West. "

What does "the share" mean? Sounds like a pretty unrealistic builder. Perhaps he needs some adjustments to start making better decisions. Of course he may be vacationing on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea and unaware of what the facts on the ground are. New home builders overbuilt and now they are reaping the results. But any reference to ghost towns is simple irresponsible.

> "There's a psychological umbrella of fear in Phoenix's housing market now," said Tim Sullivan, a national housing analyst with San Diego-based Sullivan Group. "Buyers are uncertain."

The only fear is that created by irresponsible writers who are read by inexperienced and irrational people. The whole bubble theory is shameful. A bubble grows until it pops. When it pops it fully deflates. Not partially, not 2.2 percent, it just totally deflates.

From:
http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace/homevaluesfall06/articles/1012VHV-eastvalley1022.html

"Home prices are climbing, while sales are falling around the southeast Valley.

Mesa, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert and Queen Creek all saw their median home prices rise more than 10 percent the first eight months of 2006, according to a Republic analysis of data from the Information Market.

And in all three Ahwatukee Foothills ZIP codes, median prices rose more than 10 percent. "

And from:
http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace/homevaluesfall06/articles/1012vhvphoenix1022.html

"Besides having some of the Valley's most affordable home prices, Phoenix had one of the smallest increases in home prices this year. Prices for new and existing homes climbed 11.1 percent for the first eight months of 2006, compared with 35 percent in 2005."

Doggone it! Only eleven point one percent appreciation! Let's see, the median price is about $250,000, so the appreciation was only $27,750! And that is for a whole eight months!

Bubble, shmubble. Writers need to become more responsible and readers need to become less gullible. "Glut." "The new ghost towns." "Umbrella of fear." For shame.

From don.bowen AT earthlink.net Wed Nov 1 10:59:05 2006

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Subject: Re: [Homestead] Wastewater costs 340 times Colorado River water
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You all missed the point of the article, it has nothing to do with present bubbles but a lot to do with the future expected population increases. Water in the west is a precious commodity where land is not. By securing a source of water the developer is securing future profits. Arizona is one of the fastest growing states in the country. Bubble or no bubble those new millions coming into the state will need places to live and no matter what we may think of them, the developers will be the ones trying to provide those dwellings, apartments, single family, mcMansion.

Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.

From don.bowen AT earthlink.net Wed Nov 1 10:59:06 2006

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At 11/1/2006, you wrote:

Using the
well, if it is good, gives you more protection against future price
hikes for rural water system and more control over quality. You are
then subject to potential rises in electricity and outages.

Connecting to the water mains does not insulate you from energy price increases. They just pass them along rather than you paying them directly.

In Valley Center we started out at $550 an acre foot in 1991. By 2005 we were at $700 and most was increased pumping costs and administrative surcharges.

Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.

From don.bowen AT earthlink.net Wed Nov 1 11:19:24 2006

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Subject: [Homestead] population was: Wastewater costs
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At 11/1/2006, you wrote:

You all missed the point of the article, it has nothing to do with present
bubbles but a lot to do with the future expected population
increases.

Right now California is over 36 million people. It is projected to be near 60 million by mid century. That leaves well over 20 million people looking for a place to live, fuel to put in cars and roads to drive those cars from those homes to jobs they need to find. Those millions will also need water and that water has to come from already stretched sources so wastewater will become even more valuable.

Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.

From don.bowen AT earthlink.net Wed Nov 1 11:34:45 2006

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Subject: [Homestead] bubbles
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I spent several enjoyable weeks this last summer talking with Gene and I learned a lot that I have now had a chance to think about, research, and digest. This bubble talk is a good chance to bring some of that up.

The recent housing price escalation has been called a bubble by many and in some areas it is and there are corrections going on but in most areas a bubble is not the correct term. Looking at it long term, there will be short term price drops and rising inventories but many of those houses were bought on the anticipation of short term increases, in other words, greed. Those people took a chance and risk is risk.

Long term, worst case for many will be a leveling and many years of flat prices. No more spinning a house in two weeks for $50,000 profit. Long term house prices will have to wait for wages to catch up. Long term, the population is increasing and those people need a place to live.

There can be a bubble in tech stocks and that bubble can pop almost overnight. But how many people need a tech stock? On the other hand how many people need a place to live?

In the short term the housing price bust will cause problems. Many people have been using the house as a piggy bank to finance ever bigger houses, fancy cars, boats, vacations, etc. That will stop and people who over extended themselves will feel the pop. Builders are cutting back and as projects are finished, workers will be laid off. As much as 30% of California's employment increase in the last few years was in housing, agents, brokers, carpenters, etc. With the economy slowing in general the housing bust will only add to the problem.

Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.

From don.bowen AT earthlink.net Wed Nov 1 11:38:19 2006

From vdjor AT yahoo.com Wed Nov 1 11:51:17 2006

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Subject: Re: [Homestead] bubbles
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It would be a bubble for those who are depending on
rising prices to pay for the real estate or who's
business depends on that.
For those who were gambling on things continuing to go
up that 2% might make the difference.
For those of us who are cautious it is just a
downturn. A good time to stay away from RE purchases unless we
luck into a bargain or into the ideal place for us.

--- Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net> wrote:

I spent several enjoyable weeks this last summer
talking with Gene and I learned a lot that I have now had a chance to think
about, research, and digest. This bubble talk is a good chance to bring
some of that up.

The recent housing price escalation has been called
a bubble by many and in some areas it is and there are corrections going on
but in most areas a bubble is not the correct term. Looking at it long
term, there will be short term price drops and rising inventories but
many of those houses were bought on the anticipation of short term increases,
in other words, greed. Those people took a chance and risk is risk.

Long term, worst case for many will be a leveling
and many years of flat prices. No more spinning a house in two weeks for
$50,000 profit. Long term house prices will have to wait for wages to
catch up. Long term, the population is increasing and those people need a
place to live.

There can be a bubble in tech stocks and that bubble
can pop almost overnight. But how many people need a tech stock? On the other hand how many people need a place to live?

In the short term the housing price bust will cause
problems. Many people have been using the house as a piggy bank to finance
ever bigger houses, fancy cars, boats, vacations, etc. That will stop
and people who over extended themselves will feel the pop. Builders are
cutting back and as projects are finished, workers will be laid off. As
much as 30% of California's employment increase in the last few
years was in housing, agents, brokers, carpenters, etc. With the economy
slowing in general the housing bust will only add to the problem.

Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal

http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant. _______________________________________________
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Re: [Homestead] Wastewater costs 340 times Colorado River water, Gene GeRue, 11/01/2006
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    - Re: [Homestead] population was: Wastewater costs, Gene GeRue, 11/01/2006
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      - Re: [Homestead] bubbles, Gene GeRue, 11/01/2006
        
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        Re: [Homestead] bubbles, Don Bowen, 11/02/2006
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        Re: [Homestead] Water out West, Lynda, 11/03/2006
        Re: [Homestead] Water out West, Gene GeRue, 11/03/2006
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      - Re: [Homestead] population, Gene GeRue, 11/01/2006
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- Re: [Homestead] Wastewater costs 340 times Colorado River water, Clansgian, 11/01/2006