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  • From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] My real estate bias
  • Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2008 18:25:17 -0700


On Jan 28, 2008, at 1:40 PM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

(Gene)
Choose your expert.

Or rather, I'd say, BE your expert.

Oh, lord no, you will be hounded to extinction. If you think you are, reveal it to no person.

Information is there enough to form
one's own conclusion and one needn't rely blindly on experts. (I know, Gene, you
don't mean 'blindly') The problem with "experts" is that if you have a dog in
a certain fight, you can always find and expert who will agree with you and
make you feel better about things, no matter how bad their track record.

But, you see, that is part of the horror; an expert cannot make a mistake; if they do, they lose their title.

(Don)
Like Global Warming, there are many writing from ignorance, self serving
positions, attempting to confuse rather than inform. You have to search
out those who are well informed and intend to inform. They are there but
need a little searching out.


There are a couple more measures I'd throw in additionally:

1) What's the track record of the expert? When Daniel Yergin predicted that
in 2005 oil would drop to $32/barrel and stay there for a decade and even
today he is ridiculed by reporting that oil currently sells for about 3 Yergins,
he is not a expert whose predicitions are to be taken seriously.

See? He was an expert. He foolishly made a prediction, which experts are expected, nay, demanded to do to retain their title. And so he did. And he made a m i s t a k e. Bury the bloke.

2) The expert's opinion should be tempered with logic and reality.

And do you teach your little ones of the Tooth Fairy? Sub-gods? Wise kings?





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