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  • From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] My real estate bias
  • Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2008 10:33:41 -0700


On Jan 29, 2008, at 10:01 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

That's the point, Gene. He didn't make a mistake. Not even a m i s t a k e
nor even a m i s t a k e. He deliberately published misinformation. . . . They're still
doing it.

Well, that is at minimum unforgivable.

It's much like the NAR reports of the past two and half years. All the
analysis from the country's foremost experts (them) shows that housing prices,
sales, and starts will show a sharp upturn next quarter (er, next quarter, ok
then, next quarter ... etc). It's a great time to buy!!

Four things here:
1-Because of the multiple listing services that report to them, they have more complete sales information than any other source.
2-They are in the business of promoting Realtors. Quite right. Read the early history of how real estate transactions happened and you will be impressed with the good that NAR has done. (I momentarily forget the original name.)
3-Any forecaster who works for pay will be biased to serve his employer. Depending on his education, experience and his core values he may or may not do a sound job of forecasting.
4-As you have noted, numbers don't lie. We rely on them. We verify as we can but we must either accept them or go elsewhere. If the elsewhere does not have complete numbers we may as well flip a coin.

Btb, I wrote the previous post just before bedtime, after trying out Trader Joe's 2007 Vintage Ale. As I was tossing out the bottles this morning I read that the alcohol content is nine percent. So if any of my words were unusually wobbly, that's why. That's my story and I am sticking to it.






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