permaculture

[Toby Hemenway <toby@patternliteracy.com>]

The myth of the US as not being food independent is wrong. Look at the data:

Grain exports, 2010: 107,323,000 metric tons.
Grain imports, 2010:  5,070,000 metric tons

So we export 20 times as much grain as we import. Grain is what feeds people. 
Data from
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0848.pdf

Our biggest food imports, by about 10 times anything else, are fruit juices 
(for soda) and beer (most of those are water, unlike grains). Hardly 
something we are dependent on. Juices and beer are expensive, too, which 
bloats the cost of imports, so looking at cost, not calories, will fool you. 
But in calories? We are swimming in food.

So let's learn to read the data for what they really say, and not twist them 
to fit a fear agenda.

It's a good idea to have several months of food in storage; that's a really 
easy way to hedge your bets, as is having a good local food network.

In truth, food output in the Soviet Union declined 30-40% in the collapse and 
afterward, not 80%. One source out of many for that is
http://departments.agri.huji.ac.il/economics/teachers/kislev_yoav/kislev-lerman1.pdf

That's still a brutal decline, but it wasn't that the USSR lost domestic 
production. The collapse in oil prices from $70 to $25/bbl meant that they 
could no longer afford to import the huge amount of grain that they had been. 
The USSR had not been able to feed itself for several decades by then, and 
had been importing 30-50% of its grain. 

That is a very different situation from the US, where we are still exporting 
a great deal of grain.

My bet is on a brief, extreme currency collapse (loss of faith in the dollar) 
rendering the dollar essentially worthless for a few months while things get 
sorted out. Put your wealth in things that are tangible. A currency collapse 
will wipe out the paper wealth of everyone with investments and a bank 
account--and disrupt commodities markets, which can disrupt food deliveries 
and make farmers plant more or less, depending. But, as in the USSR, 
Argentina, and lots of other places, currency collapses get repaired in a few 
months or, at worst, a year or two. You just have to plan to survive that, 
and adjust to the new system. It doesn't fall apart for long. 

The US is much more food secure than almost any other nation. We've got other 
things to worry about. Focus on what's likely, not on what scares you.

Toby
http://patternliteracy.com


On Aug 15, 2012, at 12:57 PM, Marjory wrote:

> Micheal,
> 
> You are so right.
> 
> Looks like of all the various scenarios, economic collapse is pretty 
> high on the list.  Doesn't matter which thing causes it though ....  
> food and water will become paramont.  Thos who have any knowledge at all 
> will be called to teach, share, give.  I am doing what I can to 
> prepare.  Hope everyone else is too.
> 
> Marjory
> 
> 
> On 7/4/2012 1:31 PM, Michael Pilarski wrote:
>> Several years ago I read a news report that the US had just changed from 
>> being a net exporter of agricultural products to a net importer.  We now 
>> import more value of ag imports than value of ag exports. 
>> 
>> Now bearing in mind that currencies are manipulated and that the 
>> currencies of exporting countries in Africa, South America, etc are kept 
>> low in comparison to dollars and euros, that the situation is probably 
>> worse than officially stated. 
>> 
>> Bearing in mind that in the event of a dollar collapse there would be a 
>> lot less oil, food and other imports coming into the US. 
>> 
>> Bearing in mind that when the Soviet Union collapsed that their industrial 
>> food production dropped 80% and that home gardens had to pick up the 
>> slack. 
>> 
>> We should have plans laid for what to do in such an eventuality.  Some 
>> years back I proposed that in such a crisis that all permaculturists 
>> should undertake train the trainers programs in their neighborhood to 
>> vastly increase local food production using local resources and 
>> permaculture (and regular gardening) techniques. 
>> 
>> Michael Pilarski
>> 
>> --- On Wed, 7/4/12, Marjory<forestgarden@gvtc.com>  wrote:
>> 
>> From: Marjory<forestgarden@gvtc.com>
>> Subject: [permaculture] The US is no longer food self-reliant?
>> To: "permaculture"<permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
>> Date: Wednesday, July 4, 2012, 10:40 AM
>> 
>> Hi Everyone,
>> 
>> I just had this grim realization.
>> 
>> This blows up that 'Bread Basket To The World" story.
>> 
>> With very few exceptions, every bite of every American meal comes from
>> big Ag.  And big Ag just coulndn't produce without massive amounts of
>> oil and natrual gas.
>> 
>>  From Wikipedia, the US imports about 65% of the oil it uses.
>> 
>> So could the US produce enough food to feed it's population without
>> imported oil?  It doesn't look likely.
>> 
>> I know each of us is all about change towards local sustainability, but
>> as it stands /today/, the US is *not food self-reliant.*
>> 
>> Is there some problem with the logic here?
>> 
>> The US does export about 15%-20% of the biggest crop it produces -
>> corn.  But we also import a lot of other food stuffs (fruits and
>> vegetables)  The US is not really a big net exporter.
>> 
>> Am I missing something here...
>> 
>> Marjory
>> 
>> 
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