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Chronological Thread  
  • From: "Robert Waldrop" <bwaldrop@cox.net>
  • To: "permaculture" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Ethanol fuel, gas prices, food prices, deforestation
  • Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2007 18:47:14 -0500

----- Original Message ----- From: "Lawrence F. London, Jr." <lfl@intrex.net>
Where did you get this information

Among other things I do, I moderate runningonempty2@yahoogroups.com which has been discussing peak oil and its related energy issues since 2001. We have about 7200 members and 55,000 messages in our archive. The idea that the dearth in refinery construction is due to peak oil is a very common topic of the discussion there and elsewhere (e.g. Association for the Study of Peak Oil, http://www.peakoil.net/ ). Corporations are in business to make money. Under US law, they have no other purpose than making money for their shareholders (I don't agree with that, but I think it is an accurate description of the present situation). Thus, it makes no sense for them to expand refinery production because future world oil production won't support an expanded refinery system.

Do you regard that source as credible?

Yes.

Do you believe that theory as opposed to
that of "keeping gas prices artificially high
while they invest in ethanol production (or corn commodity
or stocks in gmo's, ethanol distribution and sales, etc.)"

I don't think gasoline prices are artificially high. I think they are artificially low, and I think that that concept, besides being a peak oil axiom, is also a permaculture idea. The net effect of the combination of oil corporation and government action throughout the 20th century has been to shift the costs of petroleum production and consumption off of those doing the producing and onto the general public and the environment. If all the externalities of a gallon of oil could be allocated to the price of that gallon, it would surely be at least $10-$15/gallon. That would be a minimum "fair permaculture price" for a gallon of gasoline.

Rising gasoline prices are not a bad thing from the viewpoint of the permaculture, it seems to me. Rising gasoline prices are not only a good thing, they are a necessary thing. If we want petroleum consumption to decline, then the price must increase.

At $3.20/gallon, the price of gasoline is only 20 cents per cup. Coca-Cola is more expensive in the United States than gasoline.

The refinery shortage is going to
resolve itself in the near term by being exposed
as a "crude oil shortage". World oil production
peaked in May 2005, and it has been all downhill

Is that from a reliable source?

The May 2005 peak data is from US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Report, go to http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/inter.html and click on the link to world oil production. It was 74.151 Million Barrels per Day in May 2005, and Feb 2007 production, the most recent available at this site, was 73.195 million barrels.

Bob Waldrop, OKC





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