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  • From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Economioc Doomsday -- The Navy
  • Date: Sat, 20 Dec 2008 13:57:08 -0800 (PST)

You were right, Rob. I didn't know who he was when I posted that article.
This short article is about that same speech, but gives info on who Rickards
is , his background, how influential he is , etc............

--------------------------------------------------------------------

POLITICO

Four really, really bad scenarios

By EAMON JAVERS



Intelligence adviser James Rickards outlines four financial scenarios that
threaten national security.

What’s the worst that could happen?

That’s a question that James Rickards spends a lot of time pondering these
days, as he sifts through the national security implications of the financial
crisis facing the United States.

Rickards will lay out his worst case scenarios in a lecture sponsored by the
Navy and the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy tonight. And his
forecasts aren’t for the faint of heart.

Rickards calls it the “A to Z” problem: What are the threats that could make
the U.S. economy look less like America and more like Zimbabwe? He sees them
everywhere – in the Chinese ownership of vast amounts of American debt, in
Russia’s increased centralization of its economy, in Al Qaeda’s
long-established fascination with damaging the U.S. economy.

In many ways, Rickards is the ultimate bear. He’s not just thinking about
whether the stock market will decline, but whether or not the stock market
will survive.

All that puts Rickards decidedly outside mainstream economic and political
thinking in America. But he does have an influential audience: the United
States intelligence and defense communities.


Rickards is a regular adviser on financial issues to the director of national
intelligence's office, and he lends his financial advice to the national
security community.

His lecture comes as part of an annual “Rethinking Seminar” produced by the
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Rickards argues that
government is not doing nearly enough to prepare for the worst. “Here’s the
policy problem for the United States,” he said in an interview. “We have
experts in defense and intelligence, and huge depth in capital markets
experience at the Fed and at Treasury. But they’re separated by the Potomac
River. And they’re not talking to each other.”

Rickards came by his economic experience the hard way. He was the general
counsel at Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that collapsed in
spectacular fashion in the late 1990s and nearly took the global economy
along with it. That near-economic death experience gave him a healthy
appreciation for risk. Today, he’s the senior managing director for research
at Omnis, an applied research firm.

Four of the scenarios keep him up at night: .........................

.................................................................

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16663.html







--- On Sat, 12/20/08, Rob <becida AT comcast.net> wrote:


>
> It was a 'what if' game and when he started using
> government
> unemployment numbers I had to step back. I have a general
> lack of
> trust in the government unemployment numbers.
>
>
>
> Rob
> becida AT comcast.net
>
> _______________________________________________








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