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Chronological Thread  
  • From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Honda hydrogen and solar
  • Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2007 12:58:35 EST



> Some day peak oil
> production will be reached, but most oil reserve estimates suggest
> that there are good reasons to doubt that that day is now at hand.
>

"Most" oil reserve estimates?? Not really.

There are two sets of oil reserve estimates. One is used by oil producing
countries (especially OPEC) to determing sales and production quotas for the
individual memebers of a cartel. They are understandably fake.

The other set of oil reserve estimates are by geologists and they are much
more conservative. They point out the fact that the peak month for world oil
production was December of 2005 and despite record prices and record demand,
production has not risen. OPEC has repeatedly in the past two years said it
would raise production but when the time came, had some financial or
political
excuse why they "chose" not to. A good number of geologists and
petro-scientists
have concluded that the reason they have not raised quotas is that they can't.

Today, as we live and breathe, the world is using 88 million barrels of oil a
day and producing 85 (the other three come from storage).

The oil industry has paid cheerleaders, much as the NAR has (and had) Lereah
and Yun who for two years have said it is a great time to buy because the
bottom is just around the corner (not making any more land, ya' know). Much
of
the misinformation about abundant reserves comes from Cambridge Energy
Research
Associates' cheerleader Daniel Yergin who eighteen months ago said oil was so
plentiful and there was so much reserve capacity that oil would drop to $30 a
barrel and stay there for most of a decade. Peakists make wicked fun of
Yergin by making his name into a measure for oil prices, that is, today oil
costs
more than three Yergins a barrel.

I have no doubt that the gist of the article is true. Hard economic times
caused mainly by the housing crash will cause the price of fuel to drop due
to
less demand. But the world capacity for producing oil has likely been
reached
and more and more people are recognizing that of late. For example:

"After the CEO of Total (the French oil major) <A
HREF="http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2007/11/1/7339/31806";>last week</A>,two
more CEOs of an
oil major came out this Thursday to give stark warnings that mean that peak
oil is happening right now. In addition, the chief economist of the
International Energy Agency (the IEA), one of the main cheerleaders of the
"there's more
than enough oil" camp until now, is giving an extraordinarily pessimistic
interview in the Financial Times, following the recent publication of their
latest
World Energy Outlook."

Full article at: www.theoildrum.com

Also note the article following this (or one or two down) which examines the
unlikely accuracy of stated oil reserves. </HTML>




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