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  • From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Honda hydrogen and solar
  • Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2007 07:19:43 -0600


On Nov 12, 2007, at 6:39 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

That change in lifestyle is going to happen come soon or late, and my bet
would not be on it being voluntary.

Here's the end of an article I just read that is titled:

Peak Oil Again? Is "social meltdown" imminent?:

In 1980, when oil reached $101.70 per barrel in real terms, spending on gasoline was 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income, according to a March 2005 report by Goldman Sachs. If oil prices reach $105 per barrel, the report noted that gasoline spending would reach 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income. Prices would have to rise to $135 per barrel to equal 1970s levels. In addition, it takes only half as much energy to produce a dollar of GDP today than it did in 1980.

Instead of the "meldown of society," a likely and painful scenario is that greedy and incompetent government oil producers will continue to under-invest, causing a shortfall in supplies that will drive up prices and provoke a global economic slowdown. Expensive oil also encourages consumers and businesses to invest in energy efficiency that will combine with the slowdown to cut demand. Reduced demand will drive down oil prices as steeply as they rose. Some day peak oil production will be reached, but most oil reserve estimates suggest that there are good reasons to doubt that that day is now at hand.

Ronald Bailey is Reason's science correspondent.

Full article is at:

http://www.reason.com/news/show/123349.html






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