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[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

On Nov 12, 2007, at 6:39 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:
> That change in lifestyle is going to happen come soon or late, and  
> my bet
> would not be on it being voluntary.

Here's the end of an article I just read that is titled:

Peak Oil Again? Is "social meltdown" imminent?:

In 1980, when oil reached $101.70 per barrel in real terms, spending  
on gasoline was 4.5 percent of GDP, 7.2 percent of consumer  
expenditures, and 6.2 percent of personal disposable income,  
according to a March 2005 report by Goldman Sachs. If oil prices  
reach $105 per barrel, the report noted that gasoline spending would  
reach 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer  
expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income. Prices  
would have to rise to $135 per barrel to equal 1970s levels. In  
addition, it takes only half as much energy to produce a dollar of  
GDP today than it did in 1980.

Instead of the "meldown of society," a likely and painful scenario is  
that greedy and incompetent government oil producers will continue to  
under-invest, causing a shortfall in supplies that will drive up  
prices and provoke a global economic slowdown. Expensive oil also  
encourages consumers and businesses to invest in energy efficiency  
that will combine with the slowdown to cut demand. Reduced demand  
will drive down oil prices as steeply as they rose. Some day peak oil  
production will be reached, but most oil reserve estimates suggest  
that there are good reasons to doubt that that day is now at hand.

Ronald Bailey is Reason's science correspondent.

Full article is at:

http://www.reason.com/news/show/123349.html