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[Clansgian AT wmconnect.com]

> Predicting the US economic future has become similar to predicting 
> the future of the world. Depends on which chapter and verse you 
> choose to quote. Even more than in the various bibles, bloggers have 
> an unlimited menu from which to cherry pick.


It's also instructive to look at past predictions:



“We will not have any more crashes in our time.”

- John Maynard Keynes in 1927 



“I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living 
in a fool’s paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily 
diminish and recede in the near future.”

- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928



“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”

- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 



“No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of 
the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at 
the 
present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment…and 
the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is 
peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding.”

- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928 



“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of 
a crash.”

- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 



“Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do 
not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present 
levels, 
such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal 
higher within a few months.”

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929



“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”

- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 
24, 1929 



“There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday… I have no fear of 
another comparable decline.”

- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, 
Friday, October 25, 1929 



“We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can 
afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.”

- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, 
October 25, 1929 



“This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the 
late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. 
Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull 
panic. Many 
of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be 
reached again in many years.”

- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, 
October 30, 1929



“Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted”

- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 
30, 1929 



“Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks… Unless we are to have 
a panic — which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom.”

- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929 



“The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services…America 
is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former 
great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis 
we 
now have three more years to go before the tailspin.”

- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 
1, 1929



“Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.”

- The Times of London, November 2, 1929 



“The Wall Street crash doesn’t mean that there will be any general or 
serious business depression… For six years American business has been 
diverting a 
substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the 
speculative game… Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. 
Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, 
sound in 
wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.”

- Business Week, November 2, 1929 



“…despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove 
an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such 
as would entail prolonged further liquidation…”

- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929 



“… a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business 
next spring, with further improvement in the fall.”

- HES, November 10, 1929



“The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a 
few more days at most.”

- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929 



“In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will 
have no effect.”

- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 
15, 1929

 

“Financial storm definitely passed.”

- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929 



“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants 
pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity 
in 
the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady 
progress.”

- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929



“I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.”

- Herbert Hoover, December 1929 



“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.”

- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929 



“For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.”

- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930 



“…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…”

- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930 



“There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about.”

- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930 



“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American 
business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”

- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 
16, 1930



“… the outlook continues favorable…”

- HES Mar 29, 1930 



“… the outlook is favorable…”

- HES Apr 19, 1930 



“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now 
passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall 
rapidly 
recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That 
danger, too, is safely behind us.”

- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930



“…by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last 
December and November should clearly be apparent…”

- HES May 17, 1930

 

“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.”

- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works 
program to help speed the recovery, June 1930 



“… irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a 
sustained recovery…”

- HES June 28, 1930 



“… the present depression has about spent its force…”

- HES, Aug 30, 1930 



“We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression.”

- HES Nov 15, 1930 



“Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible.”

- HES Oct 31, 1931 



“All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… 
and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.”

- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933