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[Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

At 11/6/2006, you wrote:
> >Roubini has been predicting about a 70% chance of a severe recession in 
> 2007.
> >http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
>
> Whew! That guy, Roubini, lives in a special world! What the heck is a
> "trailing peak?" And where does he get "falling employment?" This
> just three days ago: "

Here is one explanation, payroll vs household survey.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2006/11/employment-growth-payroll-survey-v.html



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From lurine AT softcom.net  Mon Nov  6 22:11:54 2006
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Those figures are kinda like saying the economy is great because the DOW is 
at 12,000 because in 2000 at it was 10,000.  Not if you compare 2006 dollars 
to 2000 dollars.  The same for the unemployment rate which has been changed 
twice since January of 2001.  If you use the same methods used to figure 
unemployment rates as were used prior to May 2001, the unemployment rate is 
twice what is now being tooted as being so great.

They also like to say that manufacturing jobs are up.  How nice that there 
are more jobs at Mickey D's.  Now, how about *real* manufacturing jobs. 
They are out the door and in some other country.

Lynda
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Gene GeRue" <genegerue AT ruralize.com>

> Whew! That guy, Roubini, lives in a special world! What the heck is a
> "trailing peak?" And where does he get "falling employment?" This
> just three days ago: "
> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate fell to the lowest
> level in more than five years in October, the government reported
> Friday, a sign of unexpected strength in the job market.
> "The jobless rate sank to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent in September,
> the Labor Department said. It was the lowest since May 2001.
> Economists had forecast the rate would hold steady. . . ."
> http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/03/news/economy/jobs_october/index.htm